Elimination Citibank Today, Monday, his quarterly forecast for oil prices for this year and his expectations for the average for next year, due to what appears to be an extreme delay in adding oil supplies from Iran.
Citi Research, the research unit of Citibank, stated that the delay in lifting sanctions imposed on Iran is the main factor in anticipating a tight supply, according to what was quoted by “Archyde.com”.
Citibank now expects to begin easing sanctions imposed on Iran in the first quarter of next year, which will initially add 500,000 barrels per day and then 1.3 million barrels per day over the second half of next year.
The bank had previously expected that the easing of sanctions on Iran would add supplies to the supply in the middle of this year.
Citibank raised its forecast for the price of Brent crude in the second quarter of 2022 by $14 to $113 a barrel, and for its price in the third and fourth quarters by $12 to $99 and $85 a barrel, respectively.
The bank estimated that the average price of a barrel in 2023 will be at $75, an increase from the previous forecast by $16.
Russian oil
Despite the decline in Russian oil production and exports, Citibank said that expectations of a decrease in Russian production by between 2 million and 3 million barrels are exaggerated.
He explained that diverting flows to Asia may mean that Russian production and exports may not decline by that much, but may drop by between one million and 1.5 million barrels per day.
He forecast weaker oil demand growth of 2.3 million barrels per day in 20.22 due to economic headwinds, shutdowns in China and higher prices.
For its part, Barclays Bank on Monday raised its forecast for the price of Brent crude by $11 a barrel for 2022 and $23 for 2023, pointing to a larger and continuing disruption to Russian supplies following sanctions by the European Union.
The Bank of England expects Brent prices to average $111 this year and next, while West Texas Intermediate (WTI) expects to average $108 for the same period.
On Monday, benchmark Brent crude futures were trading around $120 a barrel.
Barclays said that Russia’s oil production is expected to decline by 1.5 million barrels per day by the end of the year, adding that it no longer expects stocks to return to normal during the forecast period.