- Stephen McDonell
- BBC China correspondent
image source,Getty Images
China’s National People’s Congress, which opens on Sunday (March 5), will be a symbol of the culmination of Mr. Xi’s epic power struggle.
This leader has completely reformed the Chinese Communist Party, put himself at the center, and no one has a chance to challenge him.
Nowhere will this be more evident than in the personnel changes announced at this annual political conference. Nearly 3,000 delegates attended the rubber-stamp political conference.
Take, for example, the position of premier, the man who runs the world’s second-largest economy and is theoretically second only to Xi Jinping in the power structure.
Outgoing Premier Li Keqiang will be in the spotlight on the first day. At the end of the meeting, it is almost certain that Li Qiang will be the new prime minister and will become the focus of attention.
They are two very different kinds of people, especially in terms of their allegiance to Xi Jinping. A decade ago, Xi Jinping’s anti-corruption campaign unleashed a turmoil that shattered rival factions of parties.
In October last year, the 20th National Congress of the Communist Party of China produced a new Politburo Standing Committee. Now, the highest authority in China is a supporter of Xi Jinping.
At this meeting, the heads of departments and ministerial posts will also be replaced. They are all considered to be in the same camp.
That doesn’t mean they’re incapable, but do they dare to offer fearless and candid advice to the people who put them in the top?
A man who has been in the business world for many years told the BBC: “On the one hand, it may mean that he can really get things done under new leadership, but on the other hand, he has the risk of being stuck in an echo chamber. Danger.”
So what do these appointments mean for the direction of China?
If Li Qiang is indeed the new prime minister, answer screened questions at a press conference on the last day of the NPC session. For him, it will be a meteoric rise.
Last year, as party secretary of Shanghai, China’s financial capital, he led a disastrous two-month lockdown.
For this reason, many were shocked when he was promoted to number two in the Chinese Communist Party.
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It’s not so much regarding the lockdown as it is regarding how poorly it’s been managed. Confining food delivery drivers to their homes means food and medicine cannot be efficiently delivered to the millions of people who cannot leave their homes.
Shanghai is experiencing severe food shortages, and when food finally arrives, residents have uploaded photos of rotting vegetables.
As the citywide lockdown draws to a close, people have had enough. They kicked over the fences that had been put in place to confine them and clashed with guards put in place to enforce the then-obnoxious “zeroing out” policy.
Observers questioned how the man responsible for such a major failure of coordination might be appointed to run an entire country.
First, his past was different. Over the past few years, some in the business world have seen him as an innovator able to sidestep the rigidity of the party.
“He’s smart, he’s a good operator, but he definitely got the job because of his loyalty. When the chairman asked him to jump, he would answer: ‘How high?'” said Joerg Wood, president of the European Union Chamber of Commerce in China. Wuttke) said. Woodker has been doing business in China since the 1990s and has dealt with top Communist Party officials over the years.
Businesses and ordinary consumers are still feeling the negative effects of the “clear-to-zero” policy, he said.
“Because of the trauma of the ‘clearing’ period, people are cautious in spending,” he said. “People are shocked by what has happened in China over the past few years. They are afraid of taking risks and they are very cautious in their decisions.”
The trauma is particularly pronounced in Shanghai, a city that has become much less attractive when it comes to foreign investment.
However, Woodker doesn’t think it’s entirely Li’s fault, as do other business people.
Li Qiang is considered a hero who brought Tesla to Shanghai. It’s the company’s first factory outside of the U.S., and it’s allowed to set up its own joint venture instead of working with a Chinese partner like other foreign auto companies.
Li Qiang, in promoting the advantages of the Shanghai Pilot Free Trade Zone in 2019, said it would become an open area with international competitiveness and would “become an important carrier for China’s deep integration into economic globalization”.
In some circles, he is seen as a more liberal figure, willing to accommodate.
The experience of three Shanghai residents in the April lockdown
What is unclear, however, is whether he will now be a powerful game-changer, unafraid to do what has to be done because he has Xi Jinping’s backing, or a pragmatist, working in Xi’s shadow , just to obey and perform on a bigger stage.
Back in 2016, he became party chief of Jiangsu, a wealthy eastern province known for technology companies. He met with Alibaba founder Jack Ma and other executives to seek advice on China’s business environment.
But those were different times. In recent years, Xi Jinping has ordered rein in technology companies, arguing that they have grown too powerful for his own interests. Very often, the heads of these companies “disappear” in order to be questioned by Communist Party disciplinary officials. The latest is Bao Fan, a billionaire banker who has helped close several key tech deals.
That may not seem like something Li Qiang would have encouraged in the past, but he and Xi have a deep friendship.
Before coming to Jiangsu, he worked in Zhejiang, another wealthy eastern province south of Shanghai. At that time, Xi Jinping was the secretary of the provincial party committee, and following Li Qiang became secretary general of the provincial party committee, the two often worked late into the night to impress their superiors.
Xi has never had such an encounter with outgoing Premier Li Keqiang.
During the period when Xi and Li were promoted together, the level of collective decision-making in the Chinese leadership was much higher, and Li Keqiang was to some extent his rival. He is also considered a candidate for supreme leadership. You can’t help but wonder what would have happened if Li Keqiang had succeeded instead of Xi Jinping.
Li Keqiang, a brilliant economist who graduated from Peking University shortly following the Cultural Revolution, rose through the party through the Communist Youth League, a power bloc.
After missing out on the top job, Li Keqiang was quickly placed as prime minister under Xi Jinping. China under Xi Jinping has the widest sphere of influence since China’s founding father, Mao Zedong.
During his tenure as premier, Li Keqiang said reintroducing street vendors in Chinese cities might help revive the economy and create a more lively atmosphere. But those who answered the call in Beijing were quickly ordered to leave by the police.
Under Xi Jinping, anything that makes the capital look “backward” or “outdated” is off limits, even with the prime minister’s advice. In Beijing, that doesn’t work.
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Li Keqiang is believed to have supported former leader Hu Jintao, who was ousted at last year’s 20th Congress.
Whether it was because Hu Jintao fell ill, or because he caused trouble following his allies were ignored in their promotions, this as yet unexplained mystery brought an end to the last era as the world watched.
When he was taken away, he patted Li Keqiang on the shoulder in a friendly manner, and Li Keqiang nodded.
Li Keqiang will be remembered for his strong economic achievements, but he ended his term in a crisis of “clearing” policy.
At the worst of times, he said the economy was under enormous pressure and called on officials to be careful not to let related virus restrictions derail growth.
But when cadres have to choose whether to follow his orders to protect the economy, or to strictly implement Xi Jinping’s “zeroing out” policy, the trade-offs don’t exist.
Nothing beats Xi Jinping, who has now got the party lined up the way he wants it to be.
The only danger he seems to face is that his reputation suffers among parts of the public.
The hasty abandonment of the “zero out” policy following widespread protests, the housing crisis, high youth unemployment, a crackdown on the tech industry and massive damage to the service sector have all damaged his standing.
“Mao survived a period of total economic collapse because people didn’t have so much to lose,” Woodker said. would be better off than them.”
Those hoping to see where the economic powerhouse is headed will pay close attention to this year’s National People’s Congress, especially those who are promoted at the session.
If everything is as good as Xi Jinping says, this leader will also remove all obstacles in the road ahead. Before long, China should hit the road once more.
However, if the country is underperforming on all counts, then difficult questions start to arise.
