The declaration of the National Health Commission coincides with local news reports. For example, the “Global Times” has reported that, during 2021, there were fewer births in the provinces. Hunan y Jiangxi recorded the “lowest level for almost 60 and 70 years”. The exception was the province of Cantonwhere more than a million children were given birth.
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According to EFE agencysince the early 1960s and coinciding with a famine that killed 30 million, in China There has been no population decline. Currently, as stated in the 2021 census, in the Asian giant there are 1,412 million inhabitants.
The response of communist party has been to encourage families to have more offspring, a strategy contrary to the one implemented in 1979 with the one-child policy and which ended in 2016. Today, the State offers “subsidies, tax breaks, better health insurance, as well as support in education, accommodation and work for young families”.
It will be enough? Yang Wenzhuang, director of the National Health Commission, think not. “This is the inevitable result of a long period of low fertility”, held. And he added that while this new policy is unlikely to reverse the situation, it does “might alleviate some of the problems”.
Carlos Eduardo Félix Aramburú López De Romaña, professor at PUCP and specialist in demographycoincides and remembers that the annual rate of growth of the Chinese population is 0.1%. “And that cannot be reversed quickly. International experience tells us that it is more difficult for the population to increase than to decrease”.
Aramburú points out two aspects to take into account when explaining the decrease. The first is the increase in consumption, which is tied to greater access to education and, consequently, to more life options than just having a family. “There are those who say that children are durable goods, but they are very expensive to maintain, unlike buying and having a home, traveling or buying a car. It is logical, therefore, that the higher the consumption, the lower the birth rate.”.
The second thing to keep in mind is that in China there are 34 million more men than women.. “The lack of partners is a serious problem, especially at intermediate ages. This is a consequence of the one-child policy, in addition to the fact that there is evidence of female infanticides in households where there were already women and men were preferred. China might become an import market for handcuffs”.
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The need to change
“Having a large population is no guarantee of prosperity. It is an important factor, but not the only one. Let’s look at the European countries that developed without having as much as the Asians”, dice Marco Carrasco, professor of East Asian Studies at the Faculty of Law and Political Science of the U. de San Marcos.
Even so, Carrasco understands that China It will receive the blow caused by the demographic decrease because, being an industrialized country, it will need more economically active population. Hence, it will be vital that they change the way they manage their economy, even taking into account that the money needed to cover pensions will continue to increase.
“Now they have to redirect human capital to priority sectors because, otherwise, it will not be able to meet the demand“, Explain.
“Fortunately, there are mechanisms to soften the impact. Japan, which went through the same thing, taught that there are jobs that can be automated. There are now vending machines in restaurants, making it easier for the younger population to focus on other activities”.
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How will this new situation impact Chinese geopolitical interests? “Generally speaking, the new reality will mean that fewer young people will go to the military, an important sector for China.”. For Carrasco, however, the real problems will be expressed in commercial and economic matters.
He explains: “For a decade now, China has been shifting its focus to an industry that manufactures more complex goods, such as electronics, to keep up with South Korea y Japan. In the future they will cease to be the ‘factory of the world’ and to produce toys and textiles, giving up space to India, Vietnam o Bangladesh”.
And he concludes: “That scenario will mean that they must also vary their foreign policy to determine who might be their best trading partners. We might expect China to look to countries in Latin America and Africa to feed and boost its industries.”.
And they haven’t wasted any time. According to Deutsche Welle, the new Silk Road in Latin America meant millionaire loans provided by Chinese banks. Until 2020 and in billions of dollars, Venezuela’s accumulated debt was 62.2; Brazil, 29.7; Ecuador, 18.4; Argentina, 17.1; Bolivia, 3.4; and Mexico, 1.
