[The Epoch Times, August 06, 2024](Epoch Times reporters Cheng Jing and Luo Ya interviewed and reported) The Chinese Communist Party’s recent official data indicates that China’s marriage rate has declined by 12.7% year-on-year in the first half of the year and by 25.8% month-on-month in the second quarter. Experts attribute this decline to several factors including gender imbalance, economic downturn, and the “three highs” of “high threshold, high cost, high risk.” However, the fundamental reason is that young people are profoundly disillusioned with the system and do not want to be “leeks in the human mine.”
Marriage statistics have halved over the past decade and are projected to reach a 40-year low this year
The “Civil Affairs Statistics for the Second Quarter of 2024,” released on the official website of the Ministry of Civil Affairs of the Communist Party of China, shows that in the first half of this year, 3.43 million marriage couples registered in China, a decrease of 498,000 from the 3.928 million couples registered in the first half of last year, representing a drop of 12.7%.
In the second quarter alone, there were 508,000 fewer marriages compared to the first quarter, marking a decrease of 25.8% from the previous quarter.
Notably, the number of marriage registrations in the first half of this year hit a recent low, amounting to roughly half of the 6.94 million couples recorded during the same period ten years ago in 2014.
Historical data from the Ministry of Civil Affairs shows a continuous decline in marriage registrations over the years.
In 2013, the number of marriage registrations peaked at 13.47 million couples, after which it dropped year after year. By 2022, the registrations fell to 6.835 million couples, approximately half of the number from 2013. From 2019 to 2023, the number of marriage registrations has remained below 10 million for five consecutive years.
According to Jiemian News, demographer He Yafu predicts that if past trends continue, the number of marriage registrations in 2024 may be around 6.6 million, the lowest level since 1980. (Further reading:Lu Marriage Chaos: 100 couples got married, 60 couples divorced)
The low marriage rate corresponds with negative population growth, low birthrates, and an aging population.
Regarding this trend, Mr. Chen Ning (a pseudonym), a legal expert from mainland China, analyzed for The Epoch Times that the decrease in marriages is attributable to several reasons.
“A direct consequence is the harsh family planning policies of the mid-1990s, which strictly controlled the birth of second children. In many areas, particularly at the county level, extreme methods were employed to enforce these policies, including forced evictions and even violence,” he stated.
He noted, “In regions like Guanxian County in Shandong Province, local officials have stated that no births are allowed, even if it comes to extreme measures. The forced family planning of the mid-1990s has led to a decline in births, and thus the number of people of marriageable age is unprecedentedly low.”
Experts warn that the declining birthrate will hinder China’s social and economic development, with the population crisis being the country’s most significant issue. (Wang Zhao/AFP/Getty Images)
Commenting on the fact that China’s marriage population has halved over the past decade, Hong Mingde, an assistant researcher at the National Defense and Security Research Institute of the Communist Party of China, stated that “the primary factor is the shrinking marriageable population. This trend is not new; it reflects a general pattern, exacerbated by declining birthrates and an aging population.”
“Just two years ago, China officially acknowledged that the fertility rate had fallen below the death rate, marking the onset of negative population growth. Some scholars have argued that China has been experiencing negative population growth for a long time,” he said.
According to the National Bureau of Statistics of the Communist Party of China, the total population decreased by 850,000 people at the end of 2022, marking the first instance of negative growth since 1961. The decrease of 2.08 million in 2023 marks the second consecutive year of negative growth.
“Given the broader trend of population decline, it is impossible for the number of marriage pairs to increase. Therefore, this data is credible, and the situation may be even worse,” he added.
Regarding negative population growth, Hong Mingde noted that the declining birthrate leads to shifts in population structure, transitioning from a pyramid to an inverted pyramid. Additionally, the aging population is rising, contributing to the current scenario.
“In the long run, this development will adversely affect China’s economy because the labor force will diminish.” (Further reading:Amid youth unemployment, the CCP’s push to re-employ the elderly sparks public opinion)
Chen Yingxuan, a policy analyst at the Taiwan National Defense Research Institute, believes that “China’s fertility rate is likely to decline next year, and the population born in the 2020s may drop below 100 million. This has ramifications for international marriages and the housing market, leading to further declines and intensified gender conflicts.”
In an economic downturn, marriage costs have become one of the “three highs”
Chen Yingxuan also noted that this trend is linked to gender imbalance and the high costs associated with marriage. The primary reasons for the low marriage rate in 2024 are the steep costs of marriage and the sluggish economic climate.
This highlights that young Chinese people perceive marriage as a “three high” affair: high threshold, high cost, and high risk. Stagnant wages coupled with rising costs have escalated the financial burden of marriage, leading many young people to opt against marrying or choose to marry without financial support. Traditional customs regarding betrothal gifts clash with the values of the younger generation, prompting many to forgo marriage entirely.
Chen Ning, a mainland legal expert, explained that when discussing economic costs, the high expenses of marriage are evident. This is due to two primary factors: exorbitant housing prices and elevated bride prices.
China’s struggling economy has not only deterred many ordinary young people from marrying but has also raised concerns among wealthier youths regarding their ability to afford marriage. The image shows a woman taking wedding photos outside the Forbidden City in Beijing on January 20, 2022. (Wang Zhao/AFP)
“One of these factors is housing prices. Whether traditional urban residents or rural migrant workers seeking to purchase urban homes, they are all burdened by the world’s uniquely high housing costs.”
“This high housing price is primarily due to land price policies. The proportion of land prices in housing costs is exceptionally high, nearing 50%, driven by this structure.”
Chen Ning pointed out that the second cost factor is the so-called betrothal gift, which has become exorbitantly high in many regions, especially for young people in rural areas and towns, starting at 100,000 or 200,000 yuan, with some regions seeing demands of 300,000 yuan or more. This serves as the second reason for the elevated costs of marriage.
“However, there are other political and socioeconomic factors, as well as issues regarding gender dynamics,” he noted.
32-year-old Liu Hui (a pseudonym) recently ended a relationship due to disagreements over the bride price. He stated in an interview with mainland media “Ban Yue Tan” that the current expectations for a wife in his village include a house, a car, and four gold items (gold rings, earrings, bracelets, and necklaces). “Some families accumulate debt just to marry off a daughter. Marrying one person puts the entire family in debt.”
Regarding the steep costs of wedding housing, Chen Ning believes that “the fundamental issue stems from the CCP’s land financing policies, which have resulted in some of the highest housing prices globally. Even with low national income, housing prices remain astronomical.”
He added, “Another political cause of land finance is the CCP’s maintenance of redundant bureaucracies and the creation of unnecessary official positions, a common issue seen in Soviet-style communist countries.”
Chen Ning explained that the CCP has developed two distinct power systems: a party power structure and a bureaucratic system. Unlike normal nations that operate under democratic principles and rule of law, the CCP’s additional party official system must be financially supported by taxpayers and common citizens. If they cannot sustain this system, the government resorts to land sales, fueling the drive for land finance.
The underlying reason: Young people are deeply disillusioned with the system
Moreover, Chen Ning indicated that another reason young people of marriageable age are reluctant to marry stems from a profound sense of despair regarding the system and the authoritarian nature of the communist regime that governs their lives.
He believes that while financial factors certainly influence young people’s decision to avoid marriage, this is merely a symptom of a deeper-rooted issue: a profound resentment towards the political, economic, and social structures enforced by the CCP. This sentiment lies at the subconscious level for many.
The prevalent mindset among many grassroots young people is one of powerlessness: they feel they cannot alter the existing circumstances. Thus, they adopt a passive, non-cooperative stance, rejecting marriage, parenthood, and contributing to the labor force that sustains the CCP’s interests.
During the strict lockdowns in Shanghai in 2022, a man who tested negative for COVID-19 and refused to be transported by police proclaimed to the officers, threatening that three generations of his family would be affected: “This is our last generation, thank you!” This remark shocked the public.
In 2022, the CCP imposed a stringent lockdown that failed to eliminate the virus and devastated the economy. Industries collapsed, leaving people struggling to make a living. Protests erupted as citizens expressed despair, declaring, “We are the last generation,” culminating in the “white paper revolution” that resonated globally. Activists shifted their focus from seeking basic rights to demanding the Communist Party’s resignation. (Network screenshot)
Chen Ning observed that simple yet profound phrases like “human mines” and “leeks” have effectively highlighted the evils of the CCP’s oppressive system that exploits and disregards its citizens.
He reiterated that the grassroots population comprehends their status within the CCP framework and recognizes the oppressive structure that governs them, including the political authoritarianism and economic control exerted by the state, particularly through state-owned enterprises.
He cautioned that the refusal to marry and have children might lead to repercussions that will become apparent within a decade, most notably a lack of reproduction among the subjugated classes, potentially undermining the foundation of the CCP’s ruled population.
Editor in charge: Zheng Haoyu#
Recommended reading:
Declining Marriage Rates in China: Causes and Concerns
Recently released official data from the Chinese Communist Party indicates a troubling trend: marriage rates in China have dropped significantly, showing a 12.7% decline year-on-year in the first half of 2024 and a staggering 25.8% decrease month-on-month in the second quarter. In-depth analysis reveals that various factors contribute to this phenomenon, including gender imbalance, economic challenges, and high costs associated with marriage. However, the underlying sentiment among young people appears to be one of deep disillusionment with the current system, prompting many to opt out of marriage altogether.
Marriage Registrations Hit a Historic Low
The “Civil Affairs Statistics for the Second Quarter of 2024,” published by the Ministry of Civil Affairs, reports that only 3.43 million couples registered their marriages in the first half of this year, a decline of 498,000 from the prior year’s figures. This number represents about half of the 6.94 million couples that registered in the same period a decade ago.
Historical data indicates that marriage registrations have been on a downward trajectory for years. In 2013, peak registrations reached 13.47 million, but by 2022, this figure plummeted to 6.835 million. Estimates suggest that the actual number of marriages for 2024 could fall to as low as 6.6 million, the lowest recorded since 1980.
Marriage Decline and Its Broader Implications
The decline in marriage rates is accompanied by negative population growth, a low birthrate, and an aging population. Experts suggest that the stark reduction in marriage registrations can be traced back to policies from the mid-1990s that enforced strict family planning measures. The lingering effects of these policies mean that the current demographic of marriageable ages is smaller than ever.
Impact of Negative Population Growth
As per data from the National Bureau of Statistics, China’s population witnessed a decrease of 850,000 in 2022, marking the first instance of negative growth since 1961. By 2023, this figure deteriorated further, resulting in a decrease of 2.08 million. According to demographer He Yafu, the declining birthrate and aging demographics will invariably lead to fewer marriage pairs, thus exacerbating the current situation.
Economic Factors and Marriage Costs
Amidst an economic downturn, marriage has become associated with what many young people refer to as the “three highs”: high threshold, high cost, and high risk. The economic landscape has made it increasingly difficult for young couples to afford the financial burden that marriage often entails.
Housing Prices and Bride Prices
Two critical financial components that contribute to high marriage costs include:
- Housing Prices: Rising property costs necessitate that couples either invest heavily in real estate or accept long-term financial burdens.
- Betrothal Gifts: In rural areas, the expectation for gifts can start at 100,000 yuan, creating additional financial strain.
This financial burden has led many young people to forego traditional marriage altogether. They may choose to live together without formalizing their relationship, which is often referred to as “naked marriage,” a term used to describe couples who forgo the lavish trappings of a traditional wedding.
Systemic Disillusionment Among Young People
A deeper issue at play may be a pervasive sense of disenchantment with the prevailing socio-political system in China. Many young people echo sentiments of despair regarding their role in society, feeling exploited within a system they perceive as oppressive.
Voices of Despair
As verbalized by a 32-year-old man, Liu Hui, the pressures of meeting societal expectations, such as the requirement of housing and vehicles for marriage, have driven him away from relationships entirely. This sentiment reflects a common view that marriage, once a celebrated institution, is now fraught with daunting expectations and societal pressures.
Young people are increasingly opting out of marriage to express their discontent with a system believed to exploit and control them. The socio-economic struggles of daily life further discourage them from pursuing traditional marital pathways.
Regional Disparities and Cultural Challenges
Across urban and rural landscapes, the differences in social expectations and economic capabilities greatly affect marriage rates. In urban centers, high costs often dissuade young professionals while the pressures of tradition loom large in rural communities.
Shifting Attitudes Toward Marriage
From societal norms to individual desires, the concept of marriage in China has undergone significant changes. Young adults prioritize personal fulfillment, career development, and financial stability over traditional marriage, leading many to question the relevance and necessity of formal unions.
Case Study: Changing Marriage Trends
| Year | Marriages Registered (in Million) | Change from Previous Year (%) |
|---|---|---|
| 2013 | 13.47 | – |
| 2022 | 6.835 | -49.3% |
| 2024 (Projected) | 6.6 | -3.4% |
Conclusion: Moving Forward Amid Challenges
The ongoing decline in marriage rates reflects a complex interplay of cultural expectations, economic realities, and political disillusionment. As China grapples with its shifting demographics and social challenges, understanding the motivations behind this trend is crucial for policymakers and social commentators alike.
Moreover, as the younger generation navigates their future, understanding their grievances may encourage a revaluation of existing societal structures, paving the way for potential reforms that align more closely with contemporary values and realities.
