2023-10-30 05:44:39
China’s manufacturing activity likely grew for the second straight month in October, a Archyde.com poll showed on Monday, suggesting recent support measures are helping to boost sentiment that the economy is stabilizing.
The official Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) is expected to have held steady at 50.2 in October, the same as last month, according to the median forecast of 32 economists polled by Archyde.com.
The highest forecast is 50.5 by Capital Economics and the lowest is 49.9 by Standard Chartered. An index above 50 indicates an expansion in activity on a monthly basis, while a lower index signals a contraction.
Since June, policymakers have implemented a series of support measures, including modest interest rate reductions, increased liquidity injections and, more recently, larger fiscal stimulus measures. But analysts say these measures may not be enough for the government to achieve its annual growth target of around 5%.
The world’s second-largest economy grew faster than expected in the third quarter, while consumption and industrial activity in September also surprised on the upside.
Nomura, JPMorgan and Moody’s Analytics all revised their 2023 growth outlook upwards, following third-quarter data, to 5.1%, 5.2% and 5%, respectively.
Despite indicators suggesting the economy is stabilizing, the government continues to struggle with a domestic housing crisis, high youth unemployment, depressed private sector confidence and slowing global growth.
Last week, China’s top parliamentary body approved a 1 trillion yuan ($137 billion) sovereign bond issue in the fourth quarter and passed a bill allowing local governments to advance part of their bond quotas for 2024 to support investment and economic growth.
Earlier this month, the central bank injected the largest cash support since late 2020 into the economy through short-term policy loans to allow banks to extend credit and maintain interests at a low level.
The PMI, which focuses mainly on large companies and state-owned enterprises, will be released on Tuesday.
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