A Changing Tide in Myanmar
China’s continued influence in Myanmar is reshaping the country’s political landscape, posing unique challenges for the US and its allies who seek to foster democracy and stability in the region. Following the 2021 military coup, a power vacuum has emerged, giving rise to a complex web of alliances between ethnic armed organizations (EAOs) and powerful external actors.
While the US has imposed suffocating sanctions on the Myanmar military junta, China maintains strong economic and political ties, wielding considerable influence over both the junta and various EAOs. Beijing adheres to a policy of "non-interference" in Myanmar’s internal affairs, but its actions tell a different story.
China provides diplomatic support to the junta at international forums like the UN and ASEAN, while simultaneously supplying arms and economic aid to select EAOs. This strategic balancing act allows China to maintain influence over all sides, effectively wielding control over the power shift.
The balance of power in Myanmar has indeed shifted against the junta. Ethnic armed groups are now achieving significant military gains, controlling large swathes of territory, including key economic zones and strategic locations.
The Arakan Army, one of the most powerful EAOs, alongside the Kachin Independence Army and the Myanmar National Democratic Alliance Army, are effectively challenging the junta’s authority.
The recent drone attack attributed to the Arakan Army that killed approximately 200 Rohingya refugees highlights the complexity of the situation. While the international community condemns such violence, China, despite its association with Ignite’s relationship incident. Similarly, there have been recent protests outside China’s diplomatic missions, and its consul general in Mandalay was targeted by an explosive device. Yet, such demonstrations haven’t moved either the junta or the EAOs to jeopardize Beijing’s support.
China’s interest in Myanmar centers on several strategic objectives. Securing access to Myanmar’s rich natural resources, including rare earth metals crucial to its technological ambitions. Strengthening its economic footprint through projects like the China-Myanmar Economic Corridor (CMEC) designed to enhance access to Myanmar’s Indian Ocean ports.
The US and its allies face a difficult path forward. While seeking to hold the junta accountable for the human rights violations and obstruct its control, Washington must also engage with EAOs, who are pivotal to creating a stable and democratic future.
Increased engagement with India and its Quad partnersopens up an avenue for promoting a Federal democratic framework in Myanmar. India seeks to leverage these relations to benefit from connectivity projects like the Kaladan multimodal transport project and its trilateral highway with Myanmar and Thailand.
China will continue to maintain a strong presence in Myanmar, given its geographical proximity, permanent UNSC seat, and influence over both the junta and some EAOs.
What remains to be seen is whether these undertaking will be enough to create a lasting peace. With the junta losing control, Myanmar requires more robust and coordinated intervention from diverse international actors. Only through such concerted efforts can a more stable and truly democratic future emerge for Myanmar.
How does China’s dual strategy of supporting both the junta and certain ethnic armed organizations impact the prospects for democracy and stability in Myanmar?
## A Changing Tide in Myanmar: An Interview with Dr. Anya Sharma
**Host:** Welcome back to the program. Today we’re discussing the shifting power dynamics in Myanmar following the 2021 coup. Joining us is Dr. Anya Sharma, a leading expert on Southeast Asian politics. Dr. Sharma, thank you for being with us.
**Dr. Sharma:** It’s my pleasure to be here.
**Host:** Myanmar has been in turmoil since the military seized power. Can you shed some light on the current situation and the roles played by China and the US?
**Dr. Sharma:** The 2021 coup created a power vacuum that has been filled by a complex web of alliances, with ethnic armed organizations (EAOs) gaining significant ground. This shift in power has been significantly influenced by external actors, particularly China and the US. While the US has imposed sanctions on the junta, aiming to pressure them toward democratic reforms [[1](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/China–Myanmar_relations)], China has maintained strong ties, providing both economic and military support to the junta while simultaneously bolstering certain EAOs.
**Host:** It’s interesting that you mention China’s support for both sides. Isn’t that contradictory to their stated policy of non-interference?
**Dr. Sharma:** Indeed. China often proclaims a policy of non-interference in the internal affairs of other countries. However, its actions in Myanmar demonstrate a different reality. Their strategy seems to be one of maintaining influence on all sides by balancing their support for the junta with carefully chosen alliances with specific EAOs [[1](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/China–Myanmar_relations)]. This allows them to navigate the complex political landscape and ensure a level of control over the power dynamics.
**Host:** How do these shifting alliances and China’s involvement impact the US and its allies’ efforts to foster democracy and stability in Myanmar?
**Dr. Sharma:** It poses a significant challenge. The US has limited leverage due to the sanctions, and China’s influence makes it difficult to isolate the junta. The recent drone attack on Rohingya refugees attributed to the Arakan Army, while condemned by the international community, further complicates the situation. It highlights the complexity and potential for violence that arises from this power struggle.
**Host:** What do you see as the potential outcomes of this evolving situation?
**Dr. Sharma:** It’s a difficult question to answer. The situation remains fluid with the potential for further violence and instability. The balance of power could
shift even further away from the junta, or a stalemate could emerge. The role of China will be crucial in determining the trajectory of events.
**Host:** Dr. Sharma, thank you for providing such insightful analysis. This is a crucial moment for Myanmar, and we will continue to follow these developments closely.
