China’s Fragile Economic Recovery: Real Estate Sector and Industrial Activity Woes

2023-06-11 07:10:01

Housing construction remains weighed down by the lack of confidence of buyers and the difficulties of developers. (© OLafson)

The rebound in industrial activity last month remains fragile. The problems of the real estate sector are not yet resolved.

The economic indicators from China are enough to confuse the experts. After a strong rebound at the start of the year, the official manufacturing PMI index fell once more in May, for the second consecutive month (from 49.2 to 48.8 points), heightening concerns regarding the strength of the post-recovery recovery. -Covid.

On the other hand, its counterpart established by the Caixin group, published the next day, rose to 50.9 points, once morest 49.5 in April. The latter’s survey, which mainly probes SMEs, is undoubtedly the best barometer of the Chinese economy.

We can therefore speak of a monthly upturn, but not yet of an acceleration of the economic recovery, which has been uneven since the start of the year, following three years of health restrictions. Indeed, following a stronger than expected rebound in the 1st quarter (+4.5% at an annual rate), the growth of the Asian giant has been disappointing since last April.

Cautious households

Most of the indicators, especially those of industrial production, highlight the difficulties of the country, which is still facing serious internal problems. Namely a weakened confidence of economic agents, which affects employment (particularly among young people), and a persistent crisis in the real estate sector.

However, slight signs of recovery in this sector appeared following the lifting of health restrictions in

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