© AP
UKRAINE-CHINA-RUSSIA INVASION
China is the only friendly country that would help Russia mitigate the impact of economic sanctions for its invasion of Ukrainebut the government of the president Xi Jinping he has given no sign of being willing to jeopardize his own access to European and US markets out of over-friendliness.
and although Beijing If he wanted to, his ability to support President Vladimir Putin with increased imports of gas and other Russian goods is limited.
relationships with Moscow They have become more cordial since Xi took power in 2012, motivated by shared rancor towards Washington, but their interests may clash. When they conduct military exercises, Putin watches with concern China’s growing economic presence in Central Asia and the Russian Far East.
“China-Russia relations are at their highest level in history, but the two countries are not an alliance,” said Li Xin, an international relations expert at the Shanghai University of Political Science and Law.
In response to the invasion, the United States, Great Britain, the 27 countries of the European Union and other Western allies have announced or promised to apply sanctions on Russian banks, entrepreneurs and companies, as well as controls on their own exports to deprive Russian companies and the Russian military of high-tech products.
The Xi government might support Putin within limits—and Chinese companies might take advantage of the situation to do better business—but not to the point of openly violating sanctions and becoming the target of punitive measures themselves.
“China doesn’t want to get sucked in to the point of suffering because of its support for Russia,” said Mark Williams, chief Asia economist at Capital Economics.
Although China’s trade with Russia amounted to $146.9 billion last year, it is less than a tenth of trade with the United States and the EU, which totals $1.6 trillion.
“The key is whether they’re willing to risk their access to Western markets to help Russia, and I don’t think that’s the case,” Williams added. “It’s not that big of a market.”
China is the second largest economy in the world and the only major country that has not condemned the invasion.
“The degree of support Russia receives from China will likely be a crucial factor in determining how far it can weather the long-term consequences,” former Australian Prime Minister Kevin Rudd wrote on the website of the Asia Society, which he chairs. .
China’s multibillion-dollar purchases of Russian gas for its fuel-hungry economy have been a lifeline for Putin following trade and financial sanctions imposed in the wake of wresting Crimea from Ukraine in 2014.
For the past decade, the Putin government has sought to expand exports to the Far East to reduce its dependence on European markets. Moscow and Beijing are trying to de-dollarize or reduce the use of the US currency in trade to mitigate their vulnerability to the US financial system and official pressure.
China bought a sixth of Russia’s total exports last year and two-thirds of it in oil and gas, said Rajiv Biswas, IHS Markit’s chief Asia-Pacific economist.
“China will be an important growth market for Russian energy exports,” added Biswas.
China wants more gas, but Moscow cannot deliver it immediately. The gas pipelines between the two countries are full. Last month they signed a 30-year supply contract, but said the pipelines needed to transport the gas will take at least three years to complete.
Beijing has shown its self-interest by using the 2014 sanctions as leverage to negotiate lower prices in a previous contract. “We will not take advantage of other people’s difficulties,” Li said. “But, as an economic entity, Chinese companies will seek the maximum profit with the minimum possible cost.”
A foreign ministry spokesman did not respond directly when asked on Friday whether China would buy more Russian oil, but criticized “illegal unilateral sanctions” and said Beijing and Moscow are engaging in “normal trade cooperation.”
“We demand that relevant parties do not harm the legitimate rights and interests of China and other countries,” said spokesman Wang Wenbin.
China announced this week that it would allow the import of wheat from all parts of Russia for the first time. That won’t be enough to offset lost gas revenues if Europe stops buying, but it would help raise incomes for Russian farmers.
Still, the announcement was accompanied by a warning that looms as a potential roadblock: shipments must be free of a fungus that previously led China to avoid Russian wheat.
Moscow may also have undermined Beijing’s willingness to help by launching its invasion following Xi endorsed Russian claims of NATO expansion in a statement with Putin last month.
The Xi government has tried to distance itself from the attack by calling for respect for national sovereignty, including Ukraine, Foreign Minister Wang Yi said last week.
Although trade deals will be honored, “China will not side with Russia in its invasion of Ukraine,” said Zhang Lihua, an expert on Sino-European relations at Beijing’s Tsinghua University.
In a phone call with Putin on Friday, Xi said China “supports Russia and Ukraine in solving the problem through dialogue,” state TV reported.
China’s relations with the United States and Europe are strained over allegations of technological ambitions, market access, human rights, Hong Kong and Chinese claims to disputed seas and Himalayan territory.
The United States and its allies accuse China of helping Iran and North Korea evade sanctions, but the scale of violations and punitive measures has been limited.
Beijing says it complies with the UN ban on most trade with North Korea because it makes nuclear weapons, but China has been accused of not fully enforcing it for fear of an economic collapse and refugee crisis in its midst. border.
Chinese-flagged vessels are suspected of transporting oil to North Korea and exporting its coal, but it is unclear whether they have the backing of the Chinese government. North Korea is accused of using Chinese brokers to launder stolen cryptocurrency.
Aside from tech giant Huawei Technologies Ltd., which has been accused of trading with Iran, the offending Chinese companies are small and have few foreign activities that make them vulnerable to sanctions.
Previous sanctions on Moscow affected some Chinese oil companies with Russian partners, Li said. “This is what Chinese companies are worried regarding,” Li added.
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AP researcher Yu Bing and video producer Caroline Chen in Beijing and Associated Press writers Hyung-Jin Kim in Seoul and David Rising in Bangkok contributed to this report.
