Beijing “will know how to defend itself” against the return of Donald Trump, who after his victory in the US elections could opt to be “tougher on China” and to intensify the trade war that he himself started in his first term as president , according to experts consulted by EFE.
In 2018, after coming to power, Trump imposed several rounds of tariffs on Chinese products worth about $370 billion annually, about three-quarters of the Asian giant’s exports, to which Beijing responded with retaliation against American exports.
During this campaign, the Republican said he will tax up to 60% on Chinese goods, which “could increase inflation in the US, reduce its growth and further destabilize global markets,” according to analysts.
“Trump will try to intimidate and intimidate but he does not have the cards in his hand that he held in his first term (2017-2021). The bilateral trade deficit has increased dramatically. The United States does not produce the goods it consumes, it does not have winning cards,” he comments. analyst Einar Tangen, from the Taihe Institute, a think tank founded in 2013 in Beijing, told EFE.
For academic Liu Dongshu, professor of international relations at the City University of Hong Kong, the trade war, which Joe Biden maintained and amplified with additional tariffs on strategic products, was a failed attempt at ‘decoupling’ that was “an impossible “because both economies are closely intertwined.
“But a second Trump administration will be difficult for China in the short term. It could be tougher. And although Beijing already knows it, it is very unpredictable. In addition, it will be a very different administration from the first. It will have more power and could be more extreme, less conventional,” he tells EFE.
Xi and Trump: five meetings between 2017 and 2021
Relations between the two countries deteriorated during Trump’s first presidency, with collisions on the commercial, diplomatic and technological levels. Now with Biden in the White House, tension was reignited with scuffles over Taiwan or over restrictions on exports of semiconductors and other key technologies to China.
Víctor Gao, an expert on relations between Beijing and Washington, tells EFE that China “will be firm but flexible” and, for now, “will remain expectant.”
“Trump won’t be able to force China to do what he wants, and hopefully he will understand that there are better ways to achieve more balanced trade relations,” he says.
Chinese President Xi Jinping met Trump five times during his first term. In one of these meetings, Xi told him that “despite there being some differences” they would find “acceptable solutions” for both “as long as both sides maintain a spirit of equality and mutual respect.”
“They know each other well. Trump will want to negotiate even based on threats, but Beijing knows he will make concessions. His first trade war was not a success as many thought,” Tangen argues.
No news
For the analyst, “neither of the two candidates brought anything new for China”, although the “risk” of Trump returning to power is that “he will cause chaos” and that this will drag down global demand “at a time when China is seeking revitalize its economy and build relationships with the Global South to diversify its trade.
The main Chinese markets experienced widespread losses after Trump’s victory was announced. One of the first consequences would be that China increases the size of the fiscal stimulus package designed by the Government and which could be up to 20% larger than if Harris had won.
Regarding his foreign policy, everyone is pointing to Taiwan: “Trump will ask them to pay for his protection and to take part of their semiconductor industry to the United States. It will imply great pressure for those who now govern on the island,” Tangen argues.
According to Liu, Trump may not be “as firm as Biden on Taiwan,” but at the same time “he could get closer to Russia,” something “good and bad for China.”
Possibility
“It could cut off aid to Ukraine and cause the war to end, which would eliminate an important factor for China to build a better relationship with Europe. But it could also be a problem for China that Russia, now close, moves closer to the US “, he asserts.
Gao believes that Biden’s presidency was “on an ideological level, a kind of new Cold War with China,” but Trump may open “a new panorama internationally with winners and losers.”
“China, at this point, only hopes that he is a peaceful president and that he understands that he must treat Beijing on a face-to-face basis,” he concludes.
Beijing / EFE
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**Interview with Expert on US-China Trade Relations**
**Interviewer (I):** Welcome, Dr. Einar Tangen, analyst from the Taihe Institute. Thank you for joining us today to discuss the implications of a possible return of Donald Trump and the ongoing trade tensions between the US and China.
**Einar Tangen (ET):** Thank you for having me. It’s an important topic that continues to evolve.
**I:** In light of the trade war initiated by Trump during his first term, how do you assess the current state of US-China relations?
**ET:** It’s certainly complex. Trump’s administration imposed significant tariffs on Chinese products, which had far-reaching effects. Although he plans to ramp up pressure again if elected, I believe he lacks the leverage he once had. The bilateral trade deficit has continued to grow, and the US has not managed to significantly increase domestic production.
**I:** That’s interesting. Some analysts are suggesting that Trump might be even tougher in a potential second term. How do you think China would respond to this?
**ET:** China will know how to defend itself. The country is prepared for various scenarios and has learned from the first round of the trade war. While a second Trump administration could indeed be more aggressive, the outcomes are unpredictable. China’s intertwined economy means that many of Trump’s strategies might not yield the results he hopes for.
**I:** Professor Liu Dongshu noted that the trade war was a failed attempt at ‘decoupling.’ Do you think that this interdependence poses challenges for both nations?
**ET:** Absolutely. The economies of the US and China are deeply connected. The effort to decouple was unrealistic, and both sides would struggle to fully disengage. Actions like imposing steep tariffs could lead to increased inflation in the US and destabilization of global markets, which would be counterproductive.
**I:** Expert Víctor Gao mentioned that China would adopt a “firm but flexible” approach. What does that mean in the context of potential negotiations?
**ET:** It means that while China will stand its ground regarding its national interests, it is also open to dialogue. They recognize the importance of negotiating from a position of strength rather than capitulating to threats. History shows that successful negotiations often happen when both sides respect each other’s sovereignty and interests.
**I:** Reflecting on Trump’s previous meetings with Xi Jinping, do you think personal dynamics will play a role in future negotiations?
**ET:** Certainly. They have a complex relationship based on mutual respect but also tension. Xi knows that Trump often negotiates with threats but has also learned that Trump can make concessions. Thus, the dynamics of their relationship will likely influence negotiations moving forward.
**I:** do you believe that the outcome of the upcoming elections will mark a significant change in US-China relations?
**ET:** It will undoubtedly have implications, but neither candidate has presented a fundamentally new approach towards China. The core issues will likely persist, including trade balances and technology competition. Ongoing dialogue and diplomacy will remain crucial in navigating these challenges.
**I:** Thank you, Dr. Tangen, for sharing your insights on this critical topic. We look forward to seeing how these developments unfold.
**ET:** Thank you for having me. It’s always a pleasure to discuss such important international matters.
