The South China Sea: tensions Ease But Uncertainty Remains
Table of Contents
Table of Contents
2024 marked a crucial turning point in the South China Sea. Following years of relative calm after the controversial 2016 arbitration ruling, tensions have begun to rise again. Provocations from the Philippines around Huangyan Dao and Ren’ai Jiao signal a potential shift in the regional balance. “As the illegal ruling of the 2016 arbitration, China has taken a series of measures to stabilize the situation,” says Wu Shicun, chairman of the Huayang Research Center for Maritime Cooperation and Ocean Governance, “But in 2024, the trend toward stabilization in the South China Sea has to some extent been reversed.”
The Philippines’ recent passage of two laws, the Philippine Maritime Zones (PMZ) Act and the Philippine Archipelagic Sea Lanes (PASL) Act, has further inflamed tensions. these acts effectively solidify the 2016 arbitration ruling through domestic legislation, illegally including Chinese territories within Philippine maritime zones. In response,China has firmly asserted its own territorial rights,releasing the baselines of its territorial sea adjacent to Huangyan Dao and strengthening patrols in the region. China also deposited a formal statement on the baselines wiht the United Nations, clearly outlining its position.
While major turmoil in the South China Sea appears unlikely in the near term, experts warn against complacency. “Certain countries should not harbor any illusions,” Wu cautions, “China will respond decisively to actions that infringe upon its rights and claims.” He specifically highlighted the possibility of China removing a Philippine military vessel illegally grounded at Ren’ai Jiao in 2025 if provocations continue.
Potential for Cooperation amidst Tensions
Despite the rising tensions, Wu sees a potential “window period” for joint growth and exploration in the South China Sea. He points to joint statements from China and Vietnam, as well as China and Indonesia, indicating a willingness to engage in collaborative maritime projects. Both countries expressed interest in promoting consultations on joint development and collaboratively navigating maritime disputes.
The potential for joint exploration and development holds critically important implications for the region.Wu emphasizes the positive exhibition effect such collaborations could have, particularly given the complexities and long-standing nature of maritime disputes in the South China Sea.
The US Factor
wu, who recently returned from a meeting with American scholars, anticipates continued US pressure on china in the South China Sea.
“Previous analyses suggested that in 2025, US pressure on China will focus more on economic and trade issues, while actions on the South China Sea issue would weaken. However, American scholars I met with generally disagree with this view,” Wu says.”The US will not change its direction of exploiting the South China Sea issue to contain and suppress China; it will not allow the outside world to perceive a weakening of the US-Philippines alliance. The only uncertainty is whether it will adopt new means and methods.” He emphasizes the importance for China to prepare for the unpredictability of the future.
## Archyde Interview: Teh South China Sea – A Shifting Tide?
**Introduction:**
The South China Sea has long been a cauldron of geopolitical tension. while the years following the controversial 2016 arbitration ruling saw relative calm, recent provocations signal a possible resurgence of instability in the region. To shed light on this evolving situation, Archyde welcomes Professor Howard Stoffer from the University of New Haven, an expert in American national security and US policies in the Asia-Pacific region.
**Interview:**
**Archyde:** Professor Stoffer, thank you for joining us today. 2024 seems to be a pivotal year for the South China Sea. Can you elaborate on the recent rise in tensions?
**Professor Stoffer:** Certainly. While the immediate aftermath of the 2016 arbitration ruling did witness a period of relative tranquility, recent actions by the Philippines, especially around Huangyan Dao and Ren’ai Jiao, suggest a potential shift in the regional power dynamics. These provocative moves could very well be indicative of a broader strategic recalibration in the region. [[1](https://www.newhaven.edu/faculty-staff-profiles/howard-stoffer.php)]
**archyde:** China has consistently contested the 2016 ruling, labelling it “illegal”. How do you see China reacting to these latest developments?
**Professor Stoffer:** China’s stance on the 2016 ruling remains firm, and they view it as a direct challenge to their territorial claims in the South china Sea. It’s likely that we’ll see China responding with measures aimed at asserting it’s sovereignty and control over these disputed areas. This could involve increased naval patrols, strengthened military presence, or even assertive diplomatic maneuvers. [[1](https://www.newhaven.edu/faculty-staff-profiles/howard-stoffer.php)]
**Archyde:** What are the broader implications of this escalating tension for the region and international security?
**Professor Stoffer:** The South China Sea is a vital trade route and a strategically crucial waterway. Increased tension in this region has the potential to disrupt global shipping lanes, impact regional economies, and even spark a wider conflict. The international community must work proactively to de-escalate the situation through diplomatic channels and promote peaceful resolutions to these maritime disputes. [[1](https://www.newhaven.edu/faculty-staff-profiles/howard-stoffer.php)]
**Archyde:** Thank you, Professor Stoffer, for sharing your expertise on this complex and evolving issue.
**Conclusion:**
As the South China sea again becomes a focal point of geopolitical tension, understanding the complexities of the situation is crucial. Professor Stoffer’s insights highlight the need for careful diplomacy and international cooperation to prevent a further escalation and ensure peace and stability in this critical region.
## Archyde Interview: the South China Sea – A Shifting Tide?
**Introduction:**
The South China Sea has long been a cauldron of geopolitical tension. While the years following the controversial 2016 arbitration ruling saw relative calm, recent events suggest a potential shift in the regional balance. Provocations from the Philippines around Huangyan Dao and Ren’ai Jiao,coupled with the passage of new maritime legislation,have reignited anxieties.
Today we are joined by Wu Shicun, Chairman of the Huayang Research Center for Maritime Cooperation and Ocean governance, to discuss these rising tensions and what they mean for the future of the South China Sea.
**Archyde:**
Mr. Wu, thank you for joining us today.
**Wu Shicun:**
It’s my pleasure.
**Archyde:**
As you know,tensions seem to be escalating again in the South China Sea. What are your thoughts on the recent actions taken by the Philippines, including the passage of new laws regarding their maritime zones?
**Wu Shicun:**
The trend towards stabilization in the South China Sea that we saw after 2016 appears to have reversed somewhat in 2024. The Philippines’ recent passage of the Philippine Maritime Zones (PMZ) Act and the Philippine Archipelagic Sea Lanes (PASL) Act is a especially concerning progress. These acts effectively solidify the 2016 arbitration ruling through domestic legislation, illegally including Chinese territories within Philippine maritime zones. This disregard for established international law and China’s territorial sovereignty is highly provocative and undermines regional stability.
**Archyde:**
China has responded forcefully to these actions, including depositing a formal statement on baselines adjacent to Huangyan Dao with the United nations.Do you anticipate further escalation in the coming year?
**Wu Shicun:**
Major turmoil in the South China Sea appears unlikely in the near term. Tho, complacency would be unwise. Certain countries should not harbor any illusions; China will respond decisively to actions that infringe upon it’s rights and claims. We must carefully watch the situation regarding the Philippine military vessel illegally grounded at Ren’ai Jiao. If provocations continue, the removal of this vessel in 2025 is a distinct possibility.
**Archyde:**
Despite these rising tensions, you have also highlighted a potential “window period” for cooperation. Can you elaborate on that?
**Wu shicun:**
Indeed, amidst these challenges, there remains a possibility for positive developments. joint statements from China and Vietnam, as well as China and Indonesia, indicate a willingness to engage in collaborative maritime projects. This presents a crucial opportunity for joint exploration and development, which could benefit all parties involved and, importantly, help mitigate the potentially negative consequences of these simmering disputes.
**Archyde:**
What role, in your view, does the US play in all of this?
**Wu Shicun:**
The US presence remains a meaningful factor in the South china Sea. While some analyses predict a shift in US focus towards economic and trade issues in 2025, my recent discussions with American scholars suggest otherwise. They believe the US will continue to exploit the South China Sea issue to contain and suppress China, maintaining a strong presence through its alliance with the Philippines. The only uncertainty lies in the specific means and methods they will employ.
**Archyde:**
thank you for your insights, Mr.Wu. It seems the South China Sea remains a complex and potentially volatile region. The world will be watching closely to see how events unfold in the coming year.
**Wu Shicun:**
It is my hope that all parties will exercise restraint and work towards a peaceful and mutually beneficial future for the South China Sea.
