2023-04-17 07:55:11
It is expected that Beijing announce an economic recovery on Tuesday, with the release of figures from the GDP of the first quarter since the lifting of the restrictions on Covid that undermined growth late last year.
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China’s “zero covid” policy to contain the virus Corona, and the strict restrictions it included, including quarantine, mass testing and travel bans, impeded economic activity in the country, before authorities made the sudden decision to cancel this policy in December.
The release of the figures on Tuesday will give the first indication since 2019 of a Chinese economy free of the restrictions of Covid, and analysts spoke with AFP and they expect a growth rate of 3.8 percent year-on-year in the January-March period.
Yet the world’s second-largest economy is still suffering from a host of other crises, from debt weighing on the real estate sector to weak consumer confidence, global inflation and the risk of recession in other countries.
“The recovery is real, but it’s still in an early stage,” said Larry Ho, chief China economist at investment bank Macquarie.
He added that any recovery “will be gradual, mainly due to weak consumer confidence”, which in turn makes companies “reluctant” to hire.
Beijing has set itself a modest growth target of around 5 percent this year, a goal that the Chinese premier, Li Qianghas warned that it will be difficult to reach.
While many experts tend to be skeptical of China’s official figures, most expect Beijing to go that far.
A survey of AFP analysts predicted the Chinese economy would grow 5.3 percent this year.
This is more or less in line with the forecast for the International Monetary Fund of 5.2 percent.
However, analysts warned that global tensions might affect China’s recovery, especially the escalation with USA, the recession that threatens other major economies and the acceleration of global inflation.
China’s economy grew just 3 percent over the past year, its weakest performance in decades.
LEG
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