[The Epoch Times, July 25, 2022](Reported by Epoch Times reporters Ning Haizhong and Luo Ya)20th National Congress of the Communist Party of ChinaIn the past, there were frequent changes in the diplomatic system.Yang Jiechi, the 72-year-old director of the foreign affairs office of the Communist Party of China, is expected to step down, and the 68-year-old foreign ministerWang YiBut it seems that he is still seeking promotion. Yesterday (24th), he was toutedXi Jinping“Diplomatic Thoughts”. If Xi is re-elected, will the ten-year CCP’s “wolf diplomacy” change? Who will act as the operator?
Wang YiSupport Xi for promotion?
The Chinese Communist Party’s official media reported that on July 24, the Chinese Communist Party held a “Xi JinpingSymposium on Studying Diplomatic Thoughts”, State Councilor and Foreign Minister Wang Yi delivered a speech at the meeting.
Wang Yi highly praised Xi’s diplomatic thinking, saying that Xi is “the chief architect of major-country diplomacy with Chinese characteristics”, who “has insight into the international situation, grasps the pulse of the times, and leads the world trend”, and “provides fundamental guidelines and action guidelines” for the CCP’s diplomacy. so on and so forth.
It is worth noting that Xi Jinping has been in power for ten years, and Wang Yi has also served as foreign minister for ten years.
On July 20, 2020, the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the Communist Party of China announced the establishment of the “Xi Jinping Diplomatic Thought Research Center”. Wang Yi also touted Xi Jinping as a “great strategist” with vision.
The 68-year-old foreign minister Wang Yi, the same age as Xi Jinping, may continue to be promoted to the director of the Foreign Affairs Office of the Central Committee of the Communist Party of China, and has recently entered the Politburo by following the Yang Jiechi model. But it has also been suggested that he may stay on as another adviser.
Li Hengqing, an economist living in the United States, told The Epoch Times on July 25 that Yang Jiechi was about to get off the bus at the station. Wang Yi wanted to take Yang Jiechi’s class now. His actions to support Xi Jinping at this time were to try to get into the Politburo. “Persuading him to come in” so that after Xi’s re-election, he himself will have a share of the pie.
Wang He, a current affairs observer, told The Epoch Times that Wang Yi’s statement is absurd, and to some extent, it is the so-called low-level red and high-level black.
“China is in a terrible international situation now. The CCPWolf Warrior Diplomacyaroused national resentment. In this case, he also said that he would uphold the leadership of Xi Jinping. Before the 19th of the Communist Party of China, he also said that Xi Jinping’s diplomatic thinking surpassed the development of Western diplomatic thinking over the past 300 years. Such nasty words have been said. “
He believes that Wang Yi is likely to retire completely. One is that he has reached his age, and the other is that the anti-Xi forces attack Xi Jinping because of his messed-up diplomacy, and Wang Yi will take the blame.
“Even if he flatters Xi Jinping now, from the perspective of Xi Jinping’s current competition with anti-Xi forces, it is very unlikely that Wang Yi will stay in office in any form of adviser.” Wang He said.
Possible candidates and losers in the foreign affairs department
The CCTV news screen on July 19 showed that the Central Committee of the Communist Party of China and the National Organs Representative Meeting elected representatives to the 20th National Congress. Liu Haixing, Deputy Director of the Office of the Central National Security Committee, sat in the first row, with Li Shulei, Executive Deputy Minister of the Central Propaganda Department, and Secretary of the Central Political and Legal Committee. Chang Chen Yixin and other ministerial-level officials are side by side, showing that Liu Haixing has been promoted to ministerial level.
Liu Haixing, 59, graduated from Beijing Foreign Studies University. He has been working in the Ministry of Foreign Affairs since 1988. He has served as Minister of the Embassy in France, Director of the European Department of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, and Assistant Minister of Foreign Affairs. In 2017, he transferred to the National Security Office.
Many pro-Communist Hong Kong media analyzed that Liu Haixing, who has a national security experience, is also regarded by the outside world as one of the top foreigners.
Liu Haixing is still the second generation of red. His father, Liu Shuqing, was a political instructor at the Pharmacy School of the Ministry of Health of the Shandong Military Region before the establishment of the Communist Party of China. After the establishment of the Communist Party of China, he served as Vice Minister of Foreign Affairs, Secretary General of the Central Leading Group for Foreign Affairs and Director of the Foreign Affairs Office of the State Council.
Wang He believes that because the CCP has learned from the US model and established the National Security Commission, diplomacy is actually an integral part of the National Security Commission, and Liu Haixing is more likely to return to the diplomatic system to take up a leadership position.
Liu Jieyi, the 64-year-old director of the Taiwan Affairs Office of the State Council, is seen as qualified enough to serve as foreign minister. But it is also pointed out that Liu Jieyi is the most popular candidate to replace Yang Jiechi, or to become the top diplomat of the CCP.
Wang He said that Liu Jieyi is very passive in terms of age, but because Yang Jiechi and Wang Yi are both going to go down, Liu Jieyi may go up. “Liu Jieyi has the background of the Taiwan Affairs Office of the State Council. If the CCP regards the Taiwan issue as the core of its foreign strategy in the next five years, his background should be conducive to taking over as foreign minister.”
Song Tao, the former head of the International Liaison Department of the Central Committee of the Communist Party of China, was expected to replace Yang Jiechi as director of the Foreign Affairs Office of the Communist Party of China or as foreign minister of Wang Yi. Song Tao’s successor, Liu Jianchao, deputy director of the Foreign Affairs Office of the CPC Central Committee, was originally another popular candidate to succeed Yang Jiechi as director of the foreign affairs office of the CPC Central Committee or Wang Yi as foreign minister.
Wang He believes that Liu Jianchao was born in 1964, and the Liaison Department of the Central Committee he was transferred to is also a key department, and he may take the post again.
Li Hengqing said that there is another strong competitor for foreign ministers in the CCP’s diplomatic system, that is, Vice Foreign Minister Ma Zhaoxu.
Public information shows that every foreign minister since 1982 has served as deputy foreign minister, worked in Beijing before being selected, and was 62 years old or younger when he took office. If these conditions are met, the current three deputy ministers – Ma Zhaoxu (58 years old), Xie Feng (58 years old) and Deng Li (57 years old), and Ma Zhaoxu in the former position.
One of the popular candidates to take over as foreign minister, Le Yucheng, has been suddenly transferred to the SARFT as a deputy. There are many rumors circulating in the outside world, including the internal struggle of the CCP involving the pro-Russian line.
One of the diseases that the CCP has most criticized by the international community in recent years is “wolf diplomacy” (also known as “wolf warrior diplomacy”). In order to show a tough stance, diplomats are vulgar and even vicious in their words and deeds. This style is said to be a legacy of the Cultural Revolution. In addition to Yang Jiechi and Wang Yi, Zhao Lijian and Hua Chunying of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs are well-known diplomatic “wolves”.
Li Hengqing believes that the core of the authorities’ diplomatic thinking is actually the so-called “rising in the east and descending in the west” proposed by Wang Huning, a member of the Politburo Standing Committee, to engage in major-country diplomacy. And this is exactly what Xi Jinping has always wanted to do, so after Xi Jinping entered Zhongnanhai, he began to follow the Wolf Warrior’s idea.
Li Hengqing said: “The CCP’s diplomatic situation is very unfavorable now. There are fewer and fewer friendly countries, fewer allies, and economic problems. For example, the China-EU investment agreement has been delayed indefinitely because of the bad relations between China and the EU.”
In 2019, Xi Jinping hosted a conference of diplomatic envoys abroad in Beijing, and Wang Huning was the only one among the other standing committee members of the CCP to attend.
Wang He said that as the executive secretary of the Central Secretariat, Wang Huning has to intervene in all matters of the party, government and military.
He also believes that the current predicament the CCP is facing is largely caused by Wang Huning. “If Xi Jinping is re-elected in the 20th National Congress of the Communist Party of China, he may have Wang Huning resign. But at present, the CCP belongs to the state of no one in the DPRK, so it is in a dilemma.”
Yang Jiechi and Wang Yi are currently responsible for the double-headed diplomacy of the Foreign Affairs Office (Party) and Foreign Minister (Politics) of the Communist Party of China.
Before the 19th National Congress of the Communist Party of China, the Foreign Affairs Office of the Communist Party of China was not included in the bureau. It is said that Yang Jiechi’s seat in the Political Bureau of the Central Committee as the director of the Foreign Affairs Office of the Central Committee of the Communist Party of China may be removed at the 20th National Congress of the Communist Party of China, thus making this not very traditional. Important posts are restored to their original positions.
Wang He said that the CCP talks about so-called great power diplomacy, but the status of its chief diplomat is still relatively low. The Secretary of State of the United States is the fourth successor to the President. As the top diplomat, Yang Jiechi, director of the Foreign Affairs Office of the CPC Central Committee, is only one of the 25-member Politburo members.
He believes that by the 20th National Congress, the director of the foreign affairs office of the Central Committee will still enter the bureau, because the diplomatic status is unlikely to decline.
Tang Jingyuan, a current affairs commentator in the United States, told The Epoch Times on July 25 that the double-headed diplomacy between the Foreign Affairs Office and the Foreign Minister is essentially a mechanism for the party to manage diplomacy, and it is the result of a power struggle within the CCP. By centralizing power, Xi has ensured that the diplomatic system is faithful to the political line he needs. After the 20th National Congress of the Communist Party of China, there is still a possibility that the director of the foreign affairs office will continue to enter the bureau.
Li Hengqing said that due to the situation, the CCP has the possibility to change the way of fighting the wolf. In this wave of diplomatic and personnel disputes, who can win will be a weather vane.
Tang Jingyuan said that the Wolf Warrior diplomacy is the CCP’s overall strategy to enter the fight for the right to speak in the international community. As long as the basic point of the CCP’s expansion strategy to “strengthen” remains unchanged, the keynote of diplomacy will not change, no matter who takes over.
Regarding whether the diplomatic line of the CCP will change after the 20th National Congress of the Communist Party of China, Wang He said that the 20th National Congress of the Communist Party of China may have some new formulations and so-called new actions in diplomacy, but the specific foreign policy adjustment will have to wait for the most important candidate. It can be determined, it is difficult to judge at present.
However, Li Hengqing believes that because Xi Jinping’s so-called diplomatic thinking has been criticized in the past decade, the international community’s rebound has returned to the CCP. If the former leader comes out and criticizes him directly, Xi Jinping will most likely not be able to do it.”
Responsible editor: Sun Yun #