We almost thought we were back in the days of the USSR. It was in Russian – not Kazakh – that Kassym-Jomart Tokayev addressed the nation on January 7, in a monotonous tone, his face expressionless. On television, the Kazakh president thanked “especially” his Russian counterpart Vladimir Putin, for having responded “very quickly, and above all in a friendly way” to his call. The day before, a contingent of the regional military alliance led by Moscow, composed mainly of Russian soldiers (2,300), had deployed in the former socialist republic to restore order, following several days of repressed demonstrations in a bath of blood.
“From now on, our government will decide its domestic and foreign policy according to Putin, this calls into question the preservation of our sovereignty”, reacted the Kazakh political scientist Dosym Satpayev in a local online media. And to mention the case of the Belarusian leader Alexander Lukashenko who, too, only owed his stay in power to the support of the master of the Kremlin, and has since become his puppet. For this expert, the Kazakh “multi-vector” policy, adopted following independence (December 1991) and consisting in avoiding dependence solely on Russia or China by multiplying partnerships – in particular with the United States and European countries – “is now part of history”.
“Their priority is that the region remains ruled by authoritarian, stable and secular regimes”, summarizes Alexander Gabuev
Chosen by ex-president Nursultan Nazarbayev to succeed him in 2019, Tokayev embodied this balance in foreign policy desired by the former leader. Perfectly trilingual, the new strong man of the country studied in Moscow and Beijing, and spent a good part of the 1980s at the embassy of the Soviet Union in China. He will now find it difficult to resist Putin. And this, especially since the former officer of the Russian KGB considers that, like Ukraine, Kazakhstan has, historically, never formed a real national entity.
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China is not the loser in this story, however – it has approved of the Russian intervention in Kazakhstan. Beijing and Moscow, which have ostensibly come together in recent years, agree to preserve their common interests in Central Asia, facing the West. “Their priority is for the region to remain ruled by authoritarian, stable and secular regimes”, summarizes Alexander Gabuev, researcher at the Carnegie Center in Moscow. Objective: to avoid any democratic contagion (which would threaten their autocratic system), to fight once morest radical Islamism and to maintain a favorable proximity to business.
Massive Chinese investments
Since the fall of the USSR, China has been careful not to collide head-on with Russia in what the latter considers to be its zone of influence. The two giants have, in a way, distributed the roles. In Moscow, the security dimension – it was to Russia that Tokayev naturally turned when his authority was threatened. China focuses on economic ties. Its weight has continued to grow, notably via its new silk routes. Between 2005 and 2020, the Middle Kingdom says it has invested 19.2 billion dollars in Kazakhstan (oil industry, logistics terminal, etc.). This border country provides it with a key supply of hydrocarbons and offers it a land route to Europe to export its goods.
First – most often – or second trading partner of the countries of Central Asia, China has also invested in infrastructure in Tajikistan, Kyrgyzstan and Uzbekistan. So many countries whose debt to Beijing has exploded. This economic omnipresence leads to more political influence. China has even established itself militarily in Tajikistan, on the border with Afghanistan (for fear of Islamist infiltration). As for Kazakhstan, it has remained silent regarding the repression of Muslims in the Chinese region of Xinjiang – even as members of the Kazakh minority in this province have been sent to “re-education” camps.
This rise in power arouses tensions. Kazakhstan and Kyrgyzstan have been rocked by protests once morest Chinese plans. For his part, Vladimir Putin is wary of the communist giant, much more impressive economically and demographically than his country. European sanctions once morest Russia have also made it much more dependent on China, which negotiates lower prices for hydrocarbons purchased from its northern neighbor. “Traditionally among great powers, Moscow and Beijing are, particularly in Central Asia, in competition for political influence, soft power and commercially, notes Alexander Gabuev. But they have so far managed to manage their tensions in good intelligence.
“The Russian president and his Chinese counterpart Xi Jinping consider their de facto alliance in the region to be more important than their differences,” agrees Thorniké Gordadze, researcher at the International Institute for Strategic Studies and former Georgian minister. In any case, as long as they share fears vis-à-vis the same adversary: the United States.
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