The Communist Party of China, which has 96.17 million party members and 2.3 million People’s Liberation Army, will hold the 20th Party Congress in Beijing, China on the 16th. The Party Congress of the Chinese Communist Party is held once every five years, with two and seven characters in the year. The party congress of the Chinese Communist Party is a venue for the distribution of power once every five years. Here are 6 points to pay attention to in this competition.
The first thing to pay attention to is not the issue of President Xi Jinping’s third term in office. Whether to ‘designate a successor’no see. The tenure of the President of China is to be re-elected once every five years to rule for 10 years. However, China’s President Xi Jinping revised the constitution in 2018 and deleted the provision for reappointment of the president, paving the way for the long-term reign of the president. The 20th party congress in 2022 is the first party congress to which the new term of office of the president of the amended constitution is applied.
In the past, China has appointed the next president five years before his term of office and entrusted him with the state vice-president and the principal of the party school to identify key Communist Party officials and provide guidance to the president while receiving government training. At this 20th Party Congress, the biggest concern is whether or not there will be a post-Xi Jinping, or successor, designation. If, among leaders in their 50s, the state vice president or the party school principal is not designated, and an elder in their late 60’s or 70’s or the party’s organizational director sits in the seat, it means that there will be no designation of a successor. This suggests that Xi Jinping will rule for another 15 years.
The second thing to look at Xi Jinping’s nameno see. Specifying the leader’s ruling ideology right away (党章: Party Constitution) and naming the leader are good signals that allow us to know the size of another power. In China, it is important to register the leader’s ideology of governance immediately, whether or not a person’s name is included in the ideology, and the last word in the ideology of governance.
In the meantime, President Xi, who has been called the ‘core’ in the general secretary, is now ‘Young-su’The point is whether or not to name it. Among the past presidents, only Mao Zedong might be called ‘Youngsu’. Because there is no term limit for the Communist Party leader. If President Xi Jinping holds this title, he will be able to maintain power over the Communist Party without retaining his current positions.
The third thing to look at is not ‘7, 8,’ ‘능상능하 (can go up and down)’no see. At the heart of Chinese politics are the 25 members of the Politburo, the so-called Party Central Committee, who determines all Chinese policies. In the meantime, however, there has been a retirement age limit for members of the Politburo of the so-called ‘7th and 8th grades’. 2017 After the 19th National Congress of the Communist Party of China, it became famous. If you have the ability, you will be reappointed regardless of your age or service period, and if you do not have the ability, you will retire.has been changed to
It is customary for the leadership of the CCP Politburo Standing Committee to retire at the age of 68. Excluding President Xi Jinping, who is 69 years old, 11 of the Politburo’s 25 members are of retirement age and over 68 years old. It is expected that he will retire and a new member of the Politburo will be appointed. At the first plenary meeting of the 20th Central Committee on October 23, the day following the closing of the 20th National Congress of the Communist Party, the 20th leaders, including 7 standing members of the Politburo, members of the Politburo who will lead the CCP for the next five years, members of the Politburo, and general secretary of the Party were selected. Elect.
The fourth noteworthy ‘Diplomacy and Economic Line’no see. After China’s 19th Party Congress, the prime minister fell into the role of an iconic manager. The prime minister must be able to serve two terms in five consecutive years before reaching the Politburo retirement age of 68. This means that potential candidates must be born following 1959. From this point of view, the prime minister is more likely to be Hu Chun-hwa, born in 1959, than Wang Yang.
Xi Jinping’s third term in office will cast yet another uncertainty around the world. However, looking inside China, it also has the effect of lowering uncertainty in terms of maintaining policy continuity. In the political field, the strengthening of the powers of the Communist Party General Secretary and the Communist Party, the strengthening of the central authority in central and local relations, the strengthening of ideological and media control, the strong anti-corruption policy and the strengthening of the Party discipline can be seen as being maintained.
In the economic field, if Deputy Prime Minister Liu He retires and the head of the Development Committee Heipeng takes over the position, the keynote of the 14th Five-Year Plan (2021-2025) decided at the 4th meeting of the 13th National People’s Congress held in March 2021 It will last until 2025. In the 19th generation, long-term goals for 2035 and 2050 were announced, but it is highly likely that five-year detailed goals for the next five, ten, and fifteen years will be announced at this party congress. In addition, there is a possibility that revised goals and a new agenda may be released that reflect the changed global economic situation following the corona and the Ukraine war. As the opening of the financial market is inevitable, the general manager of the financial sector is also American.Yi Gang) rather than Guo Shu-qing (Guo Shuqing) There is a high probability that there will be an injury to a person such as the president of Eunbo Gamhoe.
Foreign policy seems highly subject to revision. This is because the basic structure of US-China relations has changed and the US strategy of attacking China has changed. The life of the new great-power relationship and the new international relationship created by Huning Wang, in which two whales live together in the wide Pacific Ocean, has come to an end, and a new strategy is likely to emerge.
After Wang Huning and Yang Jiechi retired from office, it is also important who will succeed, and the possibility that these new diplomatic strategists will change the existing diplomatic strategy toward the US and Asia cannot be ruled out. However, if Foreign Minister Wang Yi, who has passed the 68-year-old retirement age, takes over as a member of the political bureau of Yang Jiechi, China’s wolf diplomacy has been controversial.war狼外交) may be further strengthened.
the fifth The fall of the Shanghai room and the change of ‘Xi Jiajun’no see. If there is no standing member from the Shanghai room following Han Jeong’s retirement, it means the complete downfall of the Shanghai room and Xi Jinping’s return to a power cooperative relationship with the communist party. Shi Jajun (habitFamilymilitaryThe change of power within ) and the Fujianbanghelp) can also be predicted.
Under Xi Jinping’s power umbrella, there are academic relationships, Jiyeon, and business relationships. Tsinghuabang, Shaanxibang, Fujianbang, Zhejiang New Districtmilitary) and so on. The Tsinghua Room is relatively light in color, and it controls the party’s personnel and propaganda lines, assisting Xi Jinping under the water. It is the same group as Chenxi Party Organization Director and Propaganda Director Huang Kunming. Shaanxibang is led by Vice President Wang Qishan, who took the lead in removing the Shanghai Bang, but there have been scandals in the 2nd government, and now it seems to be a Tosagupin situation.
Those in power from Zhejiang, who claim to be Xi Jinping’s escorts, are likely to hand over much of the power to Fujian in the 3rd term government. In terms of the balance of power, the ten-year reign of the Zhejiang Gods increases the risk. Even in a situation where the Taiwan problem is getting serious, the role of the Fujian Bang has increased and there will be a rise in the Fujian Bang as a checkpoint for the growing Zhejiang New Army. The recruitment of talented people from Fujian, such as Hui Feng, to key positions may be the signal.
in the sixth Rise of Technocratsno see. US and China geopoliticalstudy), when the diplomatic wars were fought, secretaries like Wang Huning prevailed, and the U.S. and ChinaClassics) During the time of the trade war, American schools such as Liu Heo, a graduate of Harvard University and Deputy Prime Minister of the University of Illinois, Lee Kang, president of the People’s Bank of Korea, prevailed.
As the US-China war is entering the stage of a technological and financial war, it is highly likely that a large number of technocrats will appear in high-tech, aerospace, nuclear power, and environmental fields. Of the 31 party secretaries, 19 party secretaries with a science background accounted for 61%. 15 of them have doctoral degrees, and 17 of them, or 55% of the total party secretary, are experts in science and engineering. The 17 party secretary majors from science and engineering fields include aerospace, optoelectronics, medical care, marine, metal, energy, nuclear power, medical care, steel, machinery, urban development, and hydropower.
In particular, experts in the aerospace fieldZhang Qingwei)the kidney’s Masingru (Ma Xingrui), Wen Jiajun of Zhejiang (Yuanjiamilitary), the so-called ‘Cosmos Club’ members, so-called aerospace experts, became the party secretary of the provincial government. Among these party secretaries, those with the title of Central Committee member are highly likely to become members of the Politburo at the 20th Party Congress or at the latest at the 21st Party Congress.
<한경닷컴 The Moneyist> Byung-seo Jeon, Director, China Economic and Finance Research Institute
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