2023-05-31 04:00:00
Chile, the second largest lithium supplierexpects to lose more market share compared to Australia y Argentina over the next decade, relegating it to third place in the world ranking of production.
State-owned Cochilco expects Chilean production of the key ingredient in electric car batteries to double by 2035 to 336,000 metric tons, while Argentina’s will rise to 415,000 tons, according to a report published Tuesday.
Much of the additional capacity cited in the report will be built later this year at operations run by SQM and Albemarle Corp., raising concerns regarding the pace of growth of brine projects.
Undoubtedly, the Cochilco figures only cover the expansions of SQM and Albemarle, as well as the possible production of companies led by Codelco in the Maricunga salt flat. Future public-private projects under the new government model for industry might add to the figures.
In the short term, Cochilco believes the lithium market will remain relatively tight over the next year before turning into a surplus as new supply comes on board following prices have risen in the last two years. However, the first half of the 2030s will be characterized by a growing deficitforecast.
The only two lithium companies that produce in Argentina announced their merger
Although Chile’s projections for the coming years are broadly in line with other forecasters, its longer-term outlook is less bullish than those of BMI and S&P Global, which project significant deficits by 2030.
Industry demand for electric vehicles is expected to grow steadily at an average of 16% a year through 2035 as the world moves away from fossil fuels, according to Cochilco’s presentation.
ED
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