2024-09-07 08:09:38
If the Arizona formation does not quickly follow the local elections, we will find ourselves in “an economic no man’s land”, warns Pieter Timmermans, general director of the Federation of Belgian Enterprises.
Pieter Timmermans is not one of those who believed on 9 June that Belgium would have a federal government in the coming weeks. Certainly, the political equation seemed clearer than in the recent past. But the head of the FEB knows Belgian music well. He is therefore not surprised by the “drama” that has taken place in recent weeks between the five parties trying to form the Arizona coalition (N-VA, MR, CD&V, Engagés and Vooruit).
However, he does not take the blockage lightly. The emergency is here, pleads Pieter Timmermans. There is the budget, the Commission’s expectations. There are the socio-economic reforms. And there is this list that he has before his eyes and which has been growing in recent weeks: that of bankruptcies and company closures, with the case of Audi at the top.
“We put the bills in front of us. One day there will be a ‘Greek moment’ when we will pay that bill, if we do not reform.”
Table of Contents
- 1 “We put the bills in front of us. One day there will be a ‘Greek moment’ when we will pay that bill, if we do not reform.”
- 2 Fear of the “Greek moment”
- 3 Uncertainty about social consultation
- 4 “I hear the criticism from the unions. But I don’t hear them proposing a plan to get Belgium back on track by 2030, when the country will celebrate its 200th anniversary.”
- 5 “The super note is oriented towards the future”
- 6 “The unions and left-wing parties are now telling me that Audi Brussels must be saved, even though for years they have only argued for higher wages and taxes for multinationals.”
- 7 What challenges does the Arizona coalition in Belgium face in implementing necessary socio-economic reforms?
He has no illusions: no agreement will be reached before the local elections on October 13. But then, we will have to speed up seriouslyhe warns. “Otherwise, we risk entering a dangerous no man’s land.”
Fear of the “Greek moment”
“The problems we face will not go away. The pension reforms that made the ageing bill more affordable between 2010 and 2019 have been reversed by Vivaldi. The wage handicap is back to the level of 2014. We are putting the bills in front of us. One day there will be a ‘Greek moment’ when we will pay this bill, if we do not reform.”
He considers Bart De Wever’s super note as a “good basis for discussions”. But regrets that some negotiators show “a fear of reform”. “There is no reason to be afraid: look at how the voters voted. With a good plan whose fruits will be visible in 2029, the Arizona coalition will be rewarded in the next elections. I am convinced of it.”
To achieve this, he believes that the most difficult reforms will have to be set in motion in the first two years of the legislature. “First the cake, then its distribution. Not the other way around. That seems to me to be the most intelligent policy.”
In the meantime, there is uncertainty for employers and unions, on the eve of the opening of a new cycle of social negotiationsIn the coming weeks, they should theoretically begin discussions on the welfare envelope. With around one billion euros, it is used to increase the lowest benefits for the unemployed, the sick and pensioners, in addition to their indexation.
And at the beginning of 2025, employers and unions will have to tackle a new interprofessional agreement (AIP)which includes the thorny issue of the margin granted for salary increases in the entire private sector. For years, the social partners have been unable to agree on this issue.
“I hear the criticism from the unions. But I don’t hear them proposing a plan to get Belgium back on track by 2030, when the country will celebrate its 200th anniversary.”
“Government negotiators should keep this in mind,” says Pieter Timmermans. “Social package? Insecurity? Wage standard? Uncertain. Economic situation? Uncertain. If they create political chaos, socio-economic chaos will follow.”
“The super note is oriented towards the future”
This is in a context where the unions have already said all the bad things they thought about Arizona’s initial plans, increasing the pressure on the centrist parties and Vooruit, the most sensitive to union voices. “Some say (the FGTB, editor’s note) that this will catapult us back 80 years. But all the measures included in the super note already exist elsewhere in Europe! There is nothing new. So explain to me how this would take us back in time. No, it is a note oriented towards the future.”
He puts the ball back in their court: “I hear the criticism from the unions. But I don’t hear them proposing a plan to get Belgium back on track by 2030, when the country will celebrate its 200th anniversary. I am still waiting for a plan from the unions indicating when they are ready to contribute to the efforts. We have in our country the highest taxes, the highest public spending and one of the highest public debts. And What is the solution, according to them? More taxes, more spending and more debt.“
According to the FEB’s strongman, unions and employers must do their part in this regard. Thierry Bodson (FGTB) fears that Arizona will eliminate social consultation by deciding unilaterally on issues such as night work or overtime. For Pieter Timmermans, if we have reached this point, it is precisely because social consultation no longer produces sufficient progress on important issues.
“The unions and left-wing parties are now telling me that Audi Brussels must be saved, even though for years they have only argued for higher wages and taxes for multinationals.”
“The wage standard law, automatic indexation and the welfare envelope are 20 to 30 year old devices. Were not the Arizona negotiators right to open a loophole to reexamine all of this? If I were running a union, I would grab this opportunity with both hands.. In the context of social dialogue, we no longer decide de facto on the wage agreement, family allowances or minimum wages. We left all that to the government because we couldn’t do it. We are in the process of letting go of everything.” He argues that the social partners must take their files back into their own hands.
All eyes are on Audi Brussels, where 3,000 jobs are at risk of being lost. Pieter Timmermans says: “The unions and left-wing parties are now telling me that Audi Brussels must be saved, even though for years they have only argued for higher wages and taxes for multinationals. The unions are organising a demonstration on September 16 to support Audi Brussels“, continues the head of the FEB. “Isn’t that cynical? In recent years, at the slightest union action in Brussels, there were always nearly 200 Audi union members present, which immobilized the group.”
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The summary
- Pieter Timmermans urges Arizona parties to speed up. He fears “political chaos” will lead to a “social and economic chaos”.
- He also addresses the unions, which are very angry about the reforms envisaged by Bart De Wever, asking them to relaunch social dialogue.
- “Social partners must assume their responsibilities!” he pleads, as a new cycle of social negotiations is about to open.
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What challenges does the Arizona coalition in Belgium face in implementing necessary socio-economic reforms?
Belgium’s Arizona Coalition Formation at a Crossroads: Economic Uncertainty and the Need for Reform
As the negotiations to form Belgium’s federal government continue to drag on, the country finds itself at a critical juncture. With the local elections just around the corner, the pressure is mounting to reach an agreement quickly. However, Pieter Timmermans, general director of the Federation of Belgian Enterprises, warns that if the Arizona formation does not follow swiftly, Belgium risks entering an “economic no man’s land” [[1]].
The political equation seemed clearer after the June elections, but the negotiations between the five parties involved in the Arizona coalition (N-VA, MR, CD&V, Engagés, and Vooruit) have been slow to yield results. Bart De Wever, leader of the N-VA, has been leading the negotiations, but the process has been marked by periods of crisis and uncertainty [[3]].
Timmermans is concerned about the socio-economic reforms that are desperately needed to address the country’s ageing bill, wage handicap, and other pressing issues. He fears that if these reforms are not implemented, Belgium will face a ”Greek moment” when it will have to pay the bill for its procrastination [[1]]. He believes that the most difficult reforms must be set in motion during the first two years of the legislature, with a focus on “first the cake, then its distribution” [[1]].
The opening of a new cycle of social negotiations is also causing uncertainty for employers and unions. The welfare envelope, worth around one billion euros, needs to be discussed, and the inter