Charles Michel’s Strategic Discretion: What Will He Do? European Council President’s Next Move

2023-12-26 05:44:00

The weeks pass, the months too… And still no answer to this question which agitates the liberals: what will Charles Michel do? The MR intends to present in January the main names which will appear on its lists in view of the mega-elections of June 9. We already have some good indications: for example, in Brussels, Sophie Wilmès will occupy first place on the federal list.

The main uncertainty that still hangs over blue heads concerns the European list. Current president of the European Council, former Prime Minister and former president of the MR, Charles Michel might take the helm, if he wished. He has the political possibility but also the legal possibility. According to the Treaty of Lisbon, he has the right to be a candidate for the European Parliament while remaining President of the Council. The uncertainties on this subject have therefore been lifted, according to a European source. However, at this stage, Charles Michel remains unfathomable.

Strategic discretion

This strategic discretion is worrying within its training. A set of political dominoes depends on his decision. Let us imagine that he ignores a candidacy for the elections, Didier Reynders, European Commissioner with a heavy portfolio, should logically take the first position in the European elections.

Faced with this uncertainty regarding his future, the former Deputy Prime Minister subtly mentioned his wish to see things clarified quickly. On RTL, Didier Reynders confirmed that he wished to continue his functions within the Commission for a second term. He also affirmed that he did not rule out running for the presidency of the party, which must be renewed in a little less than a year. A very Reyndersian way of remembering Georges-Louis Bouchez, the current boss of the MR.

We might see a subliminal message nestled in these declarations: Didier Reynders intends to be respected by the current leader of the French-speaking liberals and, if this were not the case, he might disrupt the plans of Georges-Louis Bouchez who would like to extend his presidency for 5 more years at the Golden Fleece, the address of the MR HQ.

”No one knows what he is going to do”

Despite this mounting pressure… Charles Michel maintains the enigma concerning himself. “No one knows what they are going to do and I think this situation will last until the last moment,” notes a liberal heavyweight. Officially, the President of the European Council is focused on the execution of his mandate until its end scheduled for the end of November 2024. He will not have the possibility of “re-stacking”. However, it is reasonable to believe that as a fine strategist, Charles Michel also remains attentive to the possibilities available to him in order to pursue his international career in another position.

Another avenue, regarding which rumors are growing more and more: why not a return to Belgian politics? Charles Michel might get elected to the European Parliament and quietly bide his time. It is possible, even probable, that a major political crisis at the federal level will paralyze the political game in Belgium following the next election. If current affairs were to drag on, if the MR were to be put in difficulty for one reason or another (defeat in the elections, exclusion from government coalitions, internal unrest, etc.), Charles Michel would then return as a savior.

16, rue de la Loi?

After all, he is only 48 years old… Some already see him taking over 16, rue de la Loi. This hypothesis is of course extremely speculative: the choice of Prime Minister depends on numerous factors which are rarely in the hands of those who covet this office…

“I think it will return to the Belgian level,” analyzes another leading liberal source. It will remain a little longer at the European level. He might take the head of Renew Europe (the alliance of liberals in the European Parliament) following the elections and reconnect, thanks to this position, with a sharper political voice. Or, still from the European Parliament, he might remain in reserve at the start of the next legislature and plan a return to the national level while remaining crowned by the prestige of his current function. I think he will follow this second option.”

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From the European Parliament, Charles Michel might remain in reserve at the start of the next legislature and plan a return to the national level while remaining crowned by the prestige of his current position.”

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