2023-11-12 10:07:04
New Brunswick reached a record electricity consumption in 2023. Since energy demand is expected to increase in the coming years, specialists estimate that production capacity could be put to the test during the weakest days. coldest in winter.
On February 4, several regions of New Brunswick were faced with an unprecedented cold snap. In Moncton, the mercury plunged to -28.1°C, breaking a record more than 100 years old.
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The cold snap of February 2023 also led to significant power outages across New Brunswick. (Archive photo)
Photo : CBC / Shane Fowler
This Saturday in February, a record for electricity consumption was also broken, as peak demand reached 3,442 megawatts, breaking a record almost 20 years old.
That day, NB Power’s production capacity was almost exceeded.
A situation destined to recur
Projections from the state corporation suggest that energy needs will increase over the coming years.
In the spring, an NB Power representative explained to a committee of MPs that it is demographic and economic growth that is responsible.
This is a trend, said Chief Nuclear Engineer Andy Hayward. We will regularly set peak demand records in the future.
That’s why Fredericton is taking steps to ensure the province’s energy security.
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Minister Mike Holland says February’s cold snap created an emergency that could have had a significant impact on NB Power customers. (Archive photo)
Photo: Radio-Canada / Michel Corriveau
The Minister of Natural Resources and Energy Development, Mike Holland, recently presented a bill aimed at prohibiting the sale of electricity to cryptocurrency farm projects, known to be very energy-intensive.
It was during the presentation of this initiative that Minister Holland stated that the cold spell in February meant that we came very close to not even being able to turn on the lights with the electricity generation that we have.
For Yves Gagnon, professor of engineering at the University of Moncton, the minister’s statement is tinged with sensationalism since it suggests that the entire province would lack electricity if peak demand exceeded the internal production capacity of the province.
An emergency situation
Indeed, the reality is a little more complex than that described by Minister Holland.
Before citizens are unable to light or heat their homes during an extreme cold event, NB Power deploys a series of measures aimed at increasing the amount of electricity offered on its network.
Among the measures, energy exports outside the province are suspended. When domestic electricity demand exceeds supply, New Brunswick can also purchase energy from its neighbors.
In February, however, this was impossible since Quebec could not provide us with energy due to the extremely cold temperatures which also led to a high demand for electricity in this province, indicated in an email Dominique Couture, door -spokesperson from NB Power.
Load shedding of industrial customers
The February cold snap pushed the province’s production capacity to its limits. NB Power was even forced to initiate an emergency procedure aimed at reducing the consumption of the province’s most energy-intensive industrial customers.
Although this type of scenario has never happened, it would not have taken much for NB Power to also be forced to carry out controlled electricity interruptions in New Brunswick households.
In February, it was a pretty serious situation and it was the closest we came to having to do customer load shedding.
According to NB Power, it is unlikely that these measures, described as a last resort only in cases of extreme emergency, will ever be deployed. However, these would be distributed in such a way as to minimize the impact on customers while guaranteeing the stability of the network.
Bad planning
According to Simon Langlois-Bertrand, a research associate at the Trottier Energy Institute, getting so close to the production capacity limit during periods of high demand is symptomatic of a lack of planning.
This is notably one of the conclusions of a strategic analysis of the electricity sector in central and eastern Canada to which he collaborated.
That we find ourselves in 2023 and we don’t have enough electricity in February, it shows how much we missed the boat in this planning, we have a lot of catching up to do.
Yves Gagnon, who specializes in renewable energy, does not mince his words. The situation once again demonstrates amateurism in the NB energy sector.
The situation is all the more critical as the electrification of transportation and the economy will considerably increase the demand for electricity in the province.
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Yves Gagnon, professor of engineering at the University of Moncton and specialist in renewable energies, is of the opinion that NB is under-exploiting green electricity.
Photo : Radio-Canada
To deal with this, Yves Gagnon is calling in particular for greater interconnection of New Brunswick with its neighbors in order to facilitate electricity sharing. Measures must also be taken to reduce demand.
New Brunswick must increase its energy efficiency and put in place demand management mechanisms, including the establishment of a smart grid, analyzes the professor.
He cites the example of Japan where residential hot water is heated at night, during periods of low demand.
Energetic efficiency
NB Power ensures that it is increasing its efforts to reduce residential use of electricity, which represents nearly 40% of demand in the province, through numerous energy efficiency programs. Similar steps are also taking place among businesses and industries.
NB Power’s Integrated Resources Plan, published in 2023, addresses several of these challenges and proposed solutions to overcome them.
Larry Hughes, a professor at Dalhousie University who is interested in energy security, also notes that this should have been thought about well in advance and that the province now appears to be poorly prepared.
The problem is that before having improved the energy efficiency of a large enough number of homes to reduce energy demand, the situation of February 2023 will have been reproduced many times, fears the professor.
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Heat pumps are presented as an alternative to oil heating.
Photo : getty images/istockphoto
Increasing electricity generation capacity can also be part of the solution, but this too is a long-term solution, he adds.
It’s a question of time and scale, says Larry Hughes. We need to be able to act quickly and on a sufficiently large scale for the impact to be significant, but it takes a long time.
Simon Langlois-Bertrand makes the same observation. Until New Brunswick succeeds in reducing its demand or increasing its green energy production capacity, it may be necessary to resign itself to using certain polluting sources.
Obviously, these are efforts that must be made, but if we are talking about short-term solutions, I am not sure that this will make it possible to deliver the quantity of energy that we need for the coming years, he said. , adding that the solutions deployed today will not be able to compensate for the problems resulting from poor planning.
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