2023-09-07 18:01:46
The atmosphere has changed in the notarial offices. Elodie Frémont, spokesperson for the notaries of Greater Paris, testifies to this by presenting Thursday, September 7 the quarterly activity of the Ile-de-France real estate market.
“Meetings take place in a tense climate: negotiations last well over a month, we see retractions, obtaining credit offers is laborious and everyone finds themselves, on the day of the signature, under tension”she observes, before adding: “We feel that the sale was dictated by an external constraint. »
No owner is indeed in a hurry to sell his property in a falling real estate market. For Ile-de-France notaries, “the sales made often correspond to divorces, successions, professional or family changes”. “And we feel in our studies that we have less work”adds Olivier Clermont, notary in Paris.
Wait-and-see context
In this wait-and-see context, sales volumes in Ile-de-France collapsed by a quarter in the second quarter of 2023, compared to the same period of 2022 (– 23% in Paris). For the profession, “the real estate market is still deprived of its main driver, because the monetary tightening continues with a double problem: very difficult access to financing and housing loan rates at their highest” for many years.
Read the analysis: Article reserved for our subscribers When real estate credit becomes rare and expensive
The European Central Bank has indeed carried out the fastest interest rate hike in its history since July 2022, following more than a decade of extremely low-cost money, in order to counter high inflation. installed since the beginning of the war in Ukraine. With the banks passing on these increases, the average mortgage rate has almost quadrupled, from 1% in December 2021 to 3.8% in August 2023, according to the CSA Housing Credit Observatory.
The notaries of Greater Paris have calculated what such an increase represented for households embarked on a home ownership project. According to their simulations, taking into account house prices and credit rates expected in October 2023, “the monthly payment would be 22% higher for apartments and 26% for the house, compared to the situation observed at the start of 2022”.
Extra effort at the expense of the less well-off
This additional financial effort to be made naturally has consequences on the profile of buyers, to the detriment of the less well-off. “Artisan households, business leaders and executives (CSP +) are responsible for 51% of acquisitions of old apartments in Ile-de-France in the 2nd quarter of 2023, compared to 46% a year earlier. For houses, they now represent 43% of buyers in the 2nd quarter of 2023 compared to 37% in the 2nd quarter of 2022”indicates the press release from the Ile-de-France notaries.
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