The prices of wheat and corn have risen in recent days on the European market, a rebound mainly linked to the fall in the euro once morest the dollar, in a context of strong competitiveness of Russian wheat. (Article updated at 9:54 p.m.)
On Wednesday followingnoon, a ton of milling wheat traded at 293 euros on Euronext and that of corn at 287 euros, up more than 3% over one week.
On the Chicago Stock Exchange, prices rose following the publication of the monthly Wasde report from the Department of Agriculture (USDA) on global forecasts of production, stocks and exports. The US Department has once more revised downwards its forecast of world corn and soybean production for the current campaign, in particular because of the dry weather in Argentina, while that of wheat has been increased.
Euro decline
The European rebound “is essentially due to the fall of the euro once morest the dollarwhich allows the price of wheat to rise in euros, with prices closing on Tuesday at their highest since January 10,” explained Sébastien Poncelet, analyst at Agritel.
According to him, several other elements explain this rise: “the small price difference between wheat and maize, which gives new interest to wheat as fodder”, the consideration of ” climate riskswith dry weather on American and Russian wheat” and finally “ geopolitical risks ».
The markets are indeed attentive to the progress of Ukrainian maritime exports, while the agreement reached last July under the aegis of the UN and Turkey to remove agricultural products from Ukraine expires on March 19. “There are still concerns regarding its renewal.”
In Chicago, wheat prices were supported by buying following announcements of armored vehicle deliveries to Ukraine by the United States and Germany, potentially allowing for an intensification of the conflict “while the wheat is growing” and as corn planting time approaches, according to Price Futures Group analyst Jack Scoville.
US wheat demand, “disappointing all year round”, has “been hampered by low prices and aggressive offers from Russia” which “has a large production and undercuts most world prices”, explains T. -he. Illustration of this pressure, felt on all markets: Russia has just won a full Egypt tender for 535,000 tonnes of wheat, “with lowest prices since 2021 »according to Sébastien Poncelet.
On Wednesday, the price of the cereal also climbed (+ 1.30% on the Chicago stock exchange at 7 p.m. GMT) driven by fears of the consequences of the earthquakes in Turkey and Syria, on the supply of flour in this important region. milling.
chinese balloon
If the bets are made in the fields for the cereal of bread, there remain uncertainties for the corn, which sees its prices consolidated by the climatic risks. In the United States, the trend has been “up” for prices since the beginning of December: “export demand has been solid last week even if it remains well below the pace needed to meet USDA targets”, according to Jack Scoville.
In Latin America, this is the situation in Brazil which worries: “the soybean harvest is late because of the rains, which delays the sowing of corn, which is carried out in stride”, according to the Agritel analyst. With a risk, especially in Mato Grosso (center), that of “being exposed to drought” from the end of April.
The soy price, meanwhile, fell on Monday following the United States shot down a Chinese balloon believed by the Pentagon to be a spy device. China, which claimed it was a civilian aircraft, protested. And “the market fears an escalation of tensions with the world’s largest buyer of agricultural products”, according to Jack Scoville.
The level of imports from china will be one of the keys to the market in the spring of 2023. Until then, operators are curious to see the adjustments made by the USDA in its latest report, in particular on two points: the level of the Russian harvest, so far estimated at 91 million tonnes once morest 104 million for the Russian statistical services, and that of Argentine wheat production, which should be revised downwards.