The outcome of the state elections makes coalition formation very difficult. None of the other parties want to work with the AfD. The CDU also rules out cooperation with Die Linke. This means that at least three parties are needed for a majority government. The victory of the new party BSW (Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht) does not make things any easier either. Figurehead Sahra Wagenknecht split from Die Linke in January. Her party is considered economically left-wing and socially conservative. It is not as radically right-wing as the AfD, but like the AfD it is in favour of a much stricter migration policy, against arms deliveries to Ukraine and in favour of peace negotiations with Russia. The other parties are still trying to figure out what to do with the BSW.
Thuringia
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In Thuringia, the CDU will now first talk to the SPD and BSW. Together, these three parties are 1 seat short of a majority. The current minority government of Minister President Bodo Ramelow of Die Linke with the SPD and the Greens will not return in any case. According to the provisional results, the Greens and the FDP did not reach the electoral threshold and are therefore not represented in the state parliament.
Saxony
In Saxony, the CDU has remained the largest party. Prime Minister Michael Kretschmer will probably not be able to continue his coalition with the SPD and the Greens, as these parties lack seats. A coalition of the CDU, SPD and BSW would have a majority. Although Die Linke did not reach the 5 percent electoral threshold, it will still receive seats in the Saxon state parliament. According to the electoral law in Saxony, this is allowed because the socialist party won direct mandates in two constituencies.
The preliminary result:
The turnout was high compared to previous state elections: in Saxony 74.4 percent of voters turned out to vote, in Thuringia 73.6 percent. Both states together have less than 5 million eligible voters. That is only a small part of the more than 60 million voters in Germany.
Right-wing radical AfD
Many Germans have watched these state elections with concern. It is the first time since World War II that a radical right-wing party has won the largest election in Germany. The AfD has become increasingly radical in recent years. The domestic security service Verfassungsschutz has been keeping an eye on the AfD for years and sees it as a threat to the free democratic rule of law in Germany.
According to the service, AfD members propagate xenophobia and anti-democratic positions. They hang a ‘ethnic‘ nationalism and want to exclude Muslims and political dissenters, the Verfassungsschutz has repeatedly stated. The AfD branches in Saxony and Thuringia have been designated as far-right by the service. In Thuringia, the AfD is led by right-wing extremist Björn Höcke, who was recently convicted for using Nazi terminology.
By the way, the AfD in Thuringia has the so-called Blocking minority achieved: for that, it must have at least one-third of the seats in the state parliament. It can then block important decisions that require a two-thirds majority, such as the appointment of judges. In Saxony, the AfD is the Blocking minority just missed, reports Der Spiegel.
Different asylum policy
For a long time, AfD voters voted for the party mainly out of protest. But now many voters do so out of conviction. This was already evident in the state elections in Bavaria and Hesse last year, and it is also the case now in Saxony in Thuringia. Many AfD supporters want stricter asylum and crime policies and are convinced that the AfD can achieve this. They also see the Alternative für Deutschland as the party that best represents East German interests and has the best policies regarding Russia and Ukraine.
Asylum policy was an important issue in these state elections, although the states themselves do not decide on this. The federal government decides on this. But for many voters, today’s elections were also an expression of dissatisfaction with the federal government of SPD, Greens and FDP. From a poll Before the vote in Thuringia, 82 percent of voters said that the federal government is so quarreling that hardly anything gets done in the states anymore.
Blow for Scholz government
The results in Thuringia and Saxony are a major blow to the federal government of Chancellor Olaf Scholz (SPD). In Thuringia, the German government parties Greens and FDP were voted out of the state parliament because they remained below 5 percent. In Saxony, the FDP is also no longer represented in parliament. The SPD remains below 10 percent in both states.
“A tsunami of anger at the traffic light coalition (this is what the red-yellow-green government of Chancellor Scholz is called – red)”, the headline read Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung Sunday evening. “Never before have ruling parties in Germany been so mercilessly collectively punished as the SPD, the Greens and the FDP.” Scholz has ignored the anger and discontent of citizens, local and regional administrators, police officers, teachers and other social groups for too long, the newspaper said.
Next year there will be federal elections in Germany. In the polls the governing parties are in a bad position. The SPD is at 15 percent, the Greens at 11 percent and the FDP might not reach the 5 percent threshold. At the top of the national polls is the CDU with 31 percent, followed by the AfD with 19 percent. According to the polls, the BSW would now get 9 percent of the votes.
‘We must act now’
Scholz called the results in Saxony and Thuringia “bitter”. He has called on “all democratic parties” in the states to form “stable governments without right-wing extremists”. “Our country cannot and must not get used to the AfD’s victory. The AfD is damaging Germany. It is weakening the economy, polarizing society and ruining the image of our country”, Scholz said.
FDP leader and Finance Minister Christian Lindner responded sunday evening emotional about the loss of the liberals. He spoke of a “painful setback”. He wants the federal government already taken decisions now “quickly jointly implement”. According to him, the reason that the governing parties have done so badly in Thuringia and Saxony is because people are “fed up” that the government no longer seems to have control over migration policy. “We have to act now.” According to Lindner, the FDP is also prepared to discuss changes in European legislation or in the German constitution.
According to Greens chair Ricarda Lang is the outcome of the state elections a result of the inadequate response to people’s growing insecurities. The traffic light coalition after Angela Merkel’s term in office failed to “anchor a new stability in this country”. That is why the SPD, Greens and FDP must quickly do more for social security in Germany, according to Lang. Social security was the most important issue for voters in Saxony and Thuringia to base their vote on, according to research by Infratest Dimap. Security and immigration followed right behind.
Friedrich Merz, leader of the CDU, the largest opposition party in the Bundestag, says today in response to the elections that the federal government must radically change its migration policy. The problem is not that the coalition parties do not explain their policy well, according to Merz. The most important issue now must be limiting the number of asylum seekers. “And that can only be achieved by limiting migration at the German state borders and by deportations.” If Scholz’s cabinet is not prepared to do so, it must bear the consequences itself, according to the CDU leader.
A first version of this article was published on 1 September. On 2 September it was updated and supplemented. The sentence that a majority government of CDU, SPD and BSW is possible in Thuringia was adjusted on Monday afternoon, because based on the now known distribution of seats these parties together do not have a majority. The same applies to the current government in Saxony, which also does not have a majority based on the distribution of seats.
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The Challenging State of Coalition Politics in Thuringia and Saxony
The recent state elections in Thuringia and Saxony have set the stage for intricate coalition negotiations and spotlighted the shifting political landscape in Germany. As the Alternative für Deutschland (AfD) emerged as a major player, forming a stable majority government appears increasingly complex. In this article, we will delve into the election outcomes, party dynamics, and the implications for governance in the two states.
Election Results and the Coalition Conundrum
Following the elections, a notable trend emerged: no party seemed willing to ally with the AfD, making coalition formation a daunting challenge. The Christian Democratic Union (CDU) has explicitly ruled out cooperation with Die Linke, another crucial player that has also failed to garner sufficient support. With at least three parties needed to establish a majority government, the introduction of the new party, BSW (Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht), complicates matters further. The BSW, led by Sahra Wagenknecht, who left Die Linke earlier this year, is positioned as economically left-wing yet socially conservative.
Thuringia: Seeking Alliances
In Thuringia, the CDU has initiated discussions with the Social Democratic Party (SPD) and BSW. However, the coalition would still fall one seat short of a majority in the state parliament. As the current ruling coalition, consisting of Die Linke, SPD, and the Greens, is poised to be ousted, the political future remains uncertain. Notably, the Greens and the Free Democratic Party (FDP) failed to reach the electoral threshold, removing them from contention in this cycle.
Saxony: CDU’s Path Forward
Saxony’s election results indicate that the CDU retains its status as the largest party. Prime Minister Michael Kretschmer faces challenges in maintaining his coalition with SPD and the Greens due to their dwindling seat count. An alternative coalition involving CDU, SPD, and BSW exists that could secure a majority. However, the complicated electoral landscape, with Die Linke winning direct mandates but falling short of the 5% threshold, creates further complexity.
Voter Turnout and Political Sentiment
Both Thuringia and Saxony exhibited high voter turnout: 74.4% in Saxony and 73.6% in Thuringia. Despite these numbers, both states together account for a fraction of Germany’s eligible voters, underscoring the regional political differences within a broader national context.
The Rise of the AfD: A Vision for Migration Policy
The emergence of the AfD as the largest party in these elections marks a significant shift in Germany’s political landscape. This moment underscores a growing acceptance among voters who are now aligning with the party’s more radical stances. With increasing scrutiny from the domestic security service, the AfD’s growth raises concerns regarding its far-right ideologies that include xenophobia and anti-democratic positions.
In both Thuringia and Saxony, AfD supporters predominantly articulate a desire for stringent asylum policies and a shift in Germany’s foreign policy, particularly concerning Ukraine and Russia. This trend reflects a growing disenchantment with mainstream political parties and a yearning for decisive action on issues such as immigration.
Implications for the Scholz Government
The electoral outcomes serve as a significant setback for Chancellor Olaf Scholz’s federal government, characterized as a “traffic light coalition” (comprising SPD, Greens, and FDP). The loss of seats for the Greens and FDP in both states indicates a broader frustration with their governance, particularly regarding social security and public safety.
Political leaders from the SPD and FDP have responded to the elections with urgent calls for coalition stabilization and rapid policy implementation. Scholz articulated the need for all democratic parties to construct governments opposed to far-right influence, emphasizing the necessity for proactive governance measures.
Calls for Change
In light of these results, calls for revisiting migration policies have intensified. CDU leader Friedrich Merz emphasizes the importance of controlling asylum seeker numbers and implementing stricter laws to manage migration effectively. This sentiment highlights a developing consensus among traditional parties to address the concerns propelling voters towards the AfD.
Conclusion: The Road Ahead
The electoral landscape in Thuringia and Saxony reveals pivotal challenges ahead for coalition-building and governance. As parties navigate their roles amidst increasing radicalization, the conversations and decisions made in the coming weeks will significantly shape Germany’s political future. The implications are profound—not only for regional politics but for the national discourse surrounding immigration, governance, and democratic values. How the CDU, SPD, BSW, and others reconcile their differences will be crucial in setting a course for stability and representation in these states.
Given the stakes involved, the upcoming weeks will be critical as the political actors assess their position and strategy in this rapidly changing environment.
