2024-01-05 02:17:00
CBOT positions: Brazil’s rainfall eases supply concerns, funds are bearish on U.S. soybeans, but still bullish on corn and wheat
CBOT soybean futures were steady on Friday but were headed for a third straight weekly loss as much-needed rain across Brazil and expectations of wetter weather eased concerns about production losses. Corn futures are also expected to post a weekly decline in the first week of 2024, while wheat futures were flat on Friday, down more than 2% for the week.
The main soybean contract Sv1 on the Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) fell 2.3% this week, the largest weekly decline since the end of September. Corn Cv1 fell nearly 1% this week, while wheat Wv1 fell 2.3%.
At 09:23 Beijing time on Friday, soybean futures remained unchanged at $12.6750 per bushel, corn prices were unchanged at $4.6650 per bushel, and wheat prices fell 0.25 cents to $6.1325 per bushel.
CBOT position changes
Trader estimates show that on Thursday (January 4), commodity funds increased speculative net long positions in corn and wheat, and increased speculative net short positions in soybeans, soybean meal, and soybean oil. In the latest 30 trading days, commodity funds increased their speculative net short positions in soybean oil, soybean meal, soybeans, and corn, and increased their speculative net long positions in wheat.
The data in the table are traders’ estimates and are not final transaction data. Calculation method: The above net position data = open long contracts – open short contracts, that is, if the data is positive, it means “net long position”, if the data is negative, it corresponds to “net short position”, and 0 means open position Long and open short positions are the same.
fundamental news
Rainfall in Brazil’s soybean-growing regions over the past few years has reduced concerns about crop losses in the world’s largest soybean exporter.
Forecast map of weather temperature and precipitation deviations in the 20 major soybean and corn planting areas in Brazil for the next 15 years:
Terry Reilly, senior agricultural strategist at Marex, said: “Improving conditions in Brazil have kept pressure on prices all week, and recent rains in drought-stricken areas should mitigate any additional yield losses.
Stabilizing crop production in South America could prevent buyers on world markets from shifting export operations from Brazil to the United States.
Nick Paumen, a commodities broker at CHS Hedging, said: “The weather in Brazil has improved and the market knows they will have an export crop. We just don’t know exactly how many.
Observation of supply and demand situation
An overview of the global export markets for grains, oilseeds and edible oils as of Thursday’s close:
The U.S. Energy Information Administration said corn ethanol production fell to 1.049 million barrels per day in the latest week, down from a two-year high. Inventories rose to 23.579 million barrels, the highest level since April.
Analysts said short covering and talk that China might be interested in buying U.S. soft red winter wheat helped the wheat market rise.
Later on Friday, the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) is scheduled to release U.S. grain and soybean export sales data for the week ended December 28.
The market is also awaiting the U.S. Department of Agriculture’s quarterly U.S. grain inventories and monthly supply and demand reports on January 12.
On Thursday, U.S. unemployment data showed a resilient labor market, weakening expectations for a 2024 Federal Reserve interest rate cut, bonds sold off, and global stock markets failed to fully shake off the New Year’s gloom.
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