The espionage affair surrounding ex-constitutional officer Egisto Ott has so far had no influence on the Freedom Party’s survey data. In the fictitious chancellor question, FPÖ leader Herbert Kickl even gained ground (first place with 22%). “The Egisto Ott affair is currently passing him by,” said pollster Peter Hajek.
According to the data from the survey (800 respondents aged 16 and over, telephone and online survey, fluctuation range 3.5 percentage points) for the current issue of the news magazine, the FPÖ would be well ahead of the SPÖ at 30 percent, which is reported at 21 percent – just ahead of the ÖVP with 20 percent. The Greens (9 percent), NEOS (8) and the Beer Party (7) are closely behind each other. According to this survey, the KPÖ (4 percent) would also make it over the four percent hurdle for entry into the National Council.
Pollster Peter Hajek said that the FPÖ was not over-declared in these data (overstated), as was recently speculated in view of the poor election results in the Salzburg and Innsbruck regional elections. This would also be shown by a look at his institute’s surveys in the past: When it comes to the values for the FPÖ, Unique Research has always managed a “precision landing” in the comparison between surveys and results since the Tyrolean state elections in 2022, says Hajek.
“People differentiate very well”
That’s why he doesn’t assume that around 30 percent would be too high for the FPÖ. Hajek also does not share the theory that the FPÖ is having problems in view of the recent election results in the cities. Even if the Freedom Party fell short of their expectations in the regional elections in Salzburg and Innsbruck, that does not mean that this also has to be the case in nationwide elections such as the EU or National Council elections. Because voters would change their voting behavior in regional and federal elections, says Hajek. “People do differentiate between levels.”
22 percent for Kickl as Chancellor
Of course, the FPÖ has always been in the 30 percent range in other recent surveys, although somewhat below the values in Hajek’s surveys. For example, in a market survey for the “Standard” in mid-March, the Freedom Party received 29 percent, and in another by OGM for Servus TV (also in March) it received 27 percent – although Ott’s arrest did not take place until the end of March. The political competition in particular pointed to the contacts between the former FPÖ MP Hans Jörg Jenewein and the suspected spy Ott; Jenewein had rejected all allegations. His relationship with Ott was a “loose contact” and not a close acquaintance.
On the (fictitious) chancellor question, Kickl is at 22 percent in the Unique Research survey, ahead of Chancellor Karl Nehammer (ÖVP) with 19 percent and SPÖ leader Andreas Babler with 13 percent. Behind them are NEOS boss Beate Meinl-Reisinger (6 percent), Beer Party founder Dominik Wlazny (5) and Green Party leader and Vice Chancellor Werner Kogler (4).
Of course, the picture might still change until autumn, emphasized Hajek. But the matter only becomes relevant if there are concrete allegations or indications of misconduct once morest a party in the espionage affair, according to the expert.
