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The U.S. Economy grew at a rate of 1.4% in the fourth quarter of 2025, according to advance estimates released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA). The figure falls short of expectations and marks a deceleration from previous quarters.
The slowdown follows a rebound in economic growth during the second quarter of 2025, but analysts suggest underlying trends indicate a weakening economic landscape. The World Bank recently projected that the U.S. Growth rate will halve as tariffs continue to impact the global economy.
A significant contributing factor to the fourth quarter’s performance was the impact of a partial government shutdown. The shutdown, which occurred earlier in the quarter, disrupted government services and likely dampened economic activity.
For the entirety of 2025, the U.S. Economy grew by 2.2%, according to reports. This represents a moderation compared to prior years, and economists are closely watching for further signs of deceleration.
The economic slowdown is occurring against a backdrop of ongoing trade tensions. A report from the Center for Economic and Policy Research (CEPR) details the dynamic impacts of the 2025 trade war across U.S. States and the global economy. The CEPR analysis suggests that tariffs are contributing to the slowing growth rate.
Globally, economic headwinds are also apparent. Denmark recently revised its 2025 growth forecast downward, citing a slowdown in Novo Nordisk, a major pharmaceutical company. This highlights the interconnectedness of the global economy and the potential for slowdowns in one region to impact others.
The BEA’s advance estimate provides an initial assessment of economic activity. Revised estimates, incorporating more complete data, are scheduled to be released in the coming weeks.