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Oil prices surged on February 22, 2026, as escalating tensions surrounding a potential joint U.S.-Israeli operation in Iran fueled market anxieties. Brent crude reached $71.95 per barrel on Friday, February 20th – an increase of $11 since December 31st, representing an 18% rise.
The price increase reflects concerns over potential disruptions to Iranian oil production should military action occur, but similarly anticipates broader regional instability. In 2025, approximately 17 million barrels of crude oil and condensate transited the Strait of Hormuz daily, making it a critical chokepoint for global energy supplies.
Industry analysts suggest that prolonged military campaigns could render the Strait of Hormuz impassable for commercial shipping. Whereas major oil producers like Saudi Arabia (exporting 6.6 million barrels per day) and the United Arab Emirates (3.2 million barrels per day) could divert some production through the Red Sea or Gulf of Oman, Iran, Kuwait, Iraq, and Qatar are entirely reliant on the Strait of Hormuz for their exports. Qatar’s daily exports of 10 billion cubic meters of liquefied natural gas (LNG) would also be at risk of blockage.
The specific objectives of the United States and Israel in Iran remain unclear. Former President Trump stated on February 20th, responding to questions from reporters, that he was considering a limited strike against the country. Sources within the administration indicate that the Pentagon has presented President Biden with multiple options, including a scenario involving the elimination of Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, his son, and other senior clerics.
The sustained build-up of U.S. Military assets in the Middle East over recent weeks has diminished prospects for a diplomatic resolution. Rapidan Energy Group, in a note following a February 17th meeting between Iranian Foreign Minister Hossein Amir-Abdollahian, White House Special Envoy for Iran Robert Malley, and Jared Kushner, wrote that “readouts from the U.S.-Iran talks in Geneva suggest the diplomatic path is nearing its end.”
Rapidan now estimates a 30% probability that an Iranian response to military action will significantly disrupt energy flows in the Gulf – up from 20% prior to the recent negotiations. American consumers are already experiencing rising gasoline prices. The national average price per gallon had fallen below $3 in December, but has steadily increased since the beginning of January, coinciding with initial threats of intervention from the Trump administration.
The Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) estimates that an Iranian retaliatory strike against Gulf countries could drive oil prices above $130 per barrel, potentially leading to a pump price of $4 per gallon. Such levels have not been seen since 2022, following the Russian invasion of Ukraine.