Catalonia, the socialists win the elections: we are moving towards a tripartite alliance

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Clear victory for the socialists in Catalonia, who with the candidate for governor Salvador Illa, are the first long-standing political force over the independence party Junts for Catalonia, but uncertainty remains regarding possible alliances to govern. For the first time in thirteen years, pro-independence parties have lost their majority in the Catalan Parliament. With the vote practically concluded, Junts with Esquerra Republicana de Catalunya of the outgoing governor Pere Aragones, and the anti-capitalist Cup obtained a total of 59 seats out of the 135 in the Catalan chamber, far from the absolute majority of 68 seats.

And for an independent majority, not even the two seats obtained by the anti-Islamist and secessionist party Aliança Catalana, making its debut in the Generalitat, and around which the democratic forces have previously tightened a sanitary cordon to isolate it from post-electoral pacts, are not enough. Salvador Illa’s PSC obtained 42 seats, ahead of Juntx with 35 seats, while ERC stopped at 20, the Cup more than halved its presence, with four seats. The three pro-independence parties had obtained 74 seats in the previous 2021 elections. The People’s Party is the fourth political force with 14 seats, ahead of the far-right Vox, with 11, and the Comuns of the former mayor of Barcelona Ada Colau, with six seats.

In the scenarios of possible government alliances, the most probable, according to all analysts, is a tripartite agreement between PSC-ERC and the Comuns Esquerra republicana might definitively leave the independence bloc behind, strengthening the agreement with the socialists, of which it is an interlocutor also privileged by the progressive Psoe-Sumar government. Pedro Sanchez would thus see the executive strengthened to channel the growing political tensions at the national level of the difficult legislature. The prime minister’s policy of “reconciliation” and “concord” in Catalonia, carried out since 2018, culminating with the pardons for the pro-independence leaders and the amnesty law, negotiated in exchange for the support of the Catalanist parties for the Psoe-Sumar executive, seems therefore proving to be successful.

Although, for Salvador Illa, it will not be easy to negotiate a government agreement in the Generalitat, given that Pere Aragones, in the dialogue with Madrid, had put on the table a referendum agreed with the State on independence, following the amnesty law. «ERC will take charge of the will of the citizens and will work to follow up its political project, from the position that the citizens have decided, the opposition»: said Pere Aragonès, commenting on the results, which he defined as «very negative». ERC has the keys to governability, but has given no clues on future alliances and will have to reflect on the price paid for the policy of dialogue with Madrid. Although Aragones recognized that starting today “a new stage opens” in the region.

Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez also spoke of a “new stage”, who in a message on X hailed the “historic result” obtained in Catalonia. «From today a new stage begins in Catalonia to improve the lives of citizens, expand rights and strengthen coexistence: the Catalans have decided that it is up to the Party of Socialists of Catalonia to lead a new stage. I assume this responsibility and as soon as Parliament is constituted I will express my availability to preside over the government”, announced Salvador Illa. He noted that among the decisive factors for the victory were “the policies applied by the Spanish government and by President Pedro Sánchez”. The pacts will be decisive and the one who does not seem to want to leave the scene is the leader of Junts, Carles Puigdemont, who had ruled out post-election agreements with the PSC and promised to retire from politics if he was not elected president in Catalonia. In light of the results, he highlighted the need to “build bridges”. And he invited the republican Esquerra to renounce the alliance in a possible progressive tripartite with the socialists of the PSC and the Comuns, to negotiate “a solid government of clearly Catalan obedience”, which would make him president of the Generalitat.