The National Hurricane Center (NHC) has been closely monitoring a developing weather system in the Caribbean, indicating that it has the potential to evolve into the season’s next tropical depression or possibly a storm within the upcoming days. Initial tropical storm watches or warnings may be issued imminently as meteorological models predict the system’s trajectory towards the Gulf of Mexico, raising concerns that Florida may soon be in its path.
Currently, as detailed in the NHC’s 1 p.m. tropical outlook, this system represents one of two weather phenomena being observed, while Subtropical Storm Patty continues to churn in the distant eastern Atlantic, on course for Spain.
At present, forecasters are focused on a broad area of low pressure situated in the southwestern Caribbean, where disorganized showers and thunderstorms are prevalent. “Gradual development of this system is expected, and a tropical depression is likely to form within the next couple of days while moving generally northward to northwestward over the central and western Caribbean Sea,” noted the NHC.
Regardless of whether the system develops, heavy rainfall is anticipated across the western Caribbean, significantly affecting Jamaica, Haiti, the Dominican Republic, and Cuba.
“Interests in the western Caribbean Sea should monitor the progress of this system as tropical storm watches or warnings could be required later today or tonight for portions of the area,” forecasters emphasized, urging vigilance for residents in affected regions.
To gather more information, an Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate the weather system later Sunday. The NHC projects a robust 90% chance of development within the next two to seven days.
If the system intensifies sufficiently, it could be designated as Tropical Storm Rafael. The long-range forecast models, which will become more accurate once the system officially forms, show a likely path heading north into the Gulf of Mexico.
“Global deterministic model runs continue to indicate the feature moving into the Gulf around mid-week, but spread and uncertainty remains high,” explained Zach Law, a meteorologist with the National Weather Service in Melbourne. “The high spread and uncertainty will likely continue until a well-defined center develops.”
While some models suggest a more westerly trajectory targeting Florida’s Panhandle, at least one model indicates it could steer towards Florida’s Big Bend region once again. This comes in the wake of three landfalls on Florida’s Gulf Coast this season, with hurricanes Debby, Helene, and Milton, plus Hurricane Idalia’s earlier landfall in 2023.
“It still remains too early to determine what, if any, impacts could occur across east-central Florida,” Law warned, encouraging residents and visitors to stay updated with the latest forecasts.
As for other potential tropical developments, the NHC has assessed a low chance for a trough of low pressure already positioned near the Greater Antilles to form before being drawn into the burgeoning Caribbean system.
This other system, located a couple hundred miles east of the southeastern Bahamas, continues to generate disorganized showers and thunderstorms along with gusty winds over adjacent waters of the southwestern Atlantic. “Slow development of this system is possible during the day or so while it moves westward toward the southeastern Bahamas and eastern Cuba,” forecasters reported. “This system is expected to be absorbed into the low-pressure area over the Caribbean Sea by late Monday, ending its chances of development.”
Nonetheless, it is still predicted to bring heavy rain within the next couple of days to the northern Leeward Islands, Puerto Rico, Hispaniola, eastern Cuba, and the southeastern Bahamas. The NHC assigns it a modest 10% chance of development in the next two to seven days.
Meanwhile, Subtropical Storm Patty, which formed on Saturday, is currently traversing the Atlantic Ocean near the Azores and moving eastward. As of 1 p.m., the center of Patty was approximately 225 miles east-southeast of Lajes Air Base in the Azores, boasting maximum sustained winds of 45 mph and advancing eastward at a speed of 16 mph.
A tropical storm warning remains active for all of the Azores, with winds of at least 40 mph extending outward up to 80 miles from its center. “On the forecast track, the center of Patty is expected to move near the southeastern Azores during the next several hours,” forecasters remarked. “Weakening is expected during the next couple of days, and Patty is forecast to become a post-tropical low later today or tonight.”
The projected path for Patty indicates it may approach Spain and Portugal as a post-tropical depression by Tuesday night.
As of now, the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season has witnessed a total of 16 named systems, with 10 of those escalating into hurricanes. The official hurricane season is acknowledged from June 1 to November 30.
**Interview with Zach Law, Meteorologist at the National Weather Service in Melbourne**
**Editor:** Welcome, Zach. Thank you for joining us today to discuss the recent developments concerning Invest 97L and its potential impact on Florida.
**Zach Law:** Thank you for having me! It’s crucial to discuss these developments as they unfold.
**Editor:** The National Hurricane Center has indicated that Invest 97L has a good chance of developing into a tropical depression or storm soon. Can you explain what factors contribute to this development?
**Zach Law:** Certainly! The system is currently characterized by a broad area of low pressure with disorganized showers and thunderstorms. The NHC believes that as it moves northward to northwestward over the central and western Caribbean Sea, conditions are becoming favorable for gradual development. Warm sea surface temperatures and moisture in the atmosphere are key ingredients for tropical systems to strengthen.
**Editor:** The forecasts suggest potential impacts on Florida. What specifics can you share regarding the likely path and intensity of the system?
**Zach Law:** We are seeing some variability among the forecast models. While they generally indicate a movement into the Gulf of Mexico by mid-week, there’s still high uncertainty regarding its exact trajectory. Some models suggest it might target the Florida Panhandle, while others indicate a more eastern path towards the Big Bend region. Until we have a well-defined center of the storm, it’ll be challenging to determine potential impacts.
**Editor:** Besides Florida, which regions in the Caribbean should be most alert in the coming days?
**Zach Law:** Heavy rainfall is expected across the western Caribbean, particularly affecting Jamaica, Haiti, the Dominican Republic, and Cuba. Residents in these areas should monitor the system closely as tropical storm watches or warnings may be issued.
**Editor:** What advice do you have for Florida residents as this situation develops?
**Zach Law:** It’s important for residents and visitors alike to stay informed by following reliable weather updates. While we can’t predict exact impacts at this stage, remaining vigilant and prepared is the best course of action. Heed any alerts from local authorities and have a plan in place, especially since the hurricane season has already seen several landfalls in the area.
**Editor:** Thank you, Zach, for your insights and for keeping us informed about this developing situation.
**Zach Law:** You’re welcome! Stay safe, and I encourage everyone to keep an eye on official forecasts as this system evolves.
