How will theenergy prices in the near future ? For the economist Bertrand Candelon, invited on the set of QR the debate, it is difficult to see very clearly. There are factors that could push prices up like the end of zero covid policy in China or winter and other things that can pull prices down like exchange rate and recession.
“First, capping the price of Russian heating oil should theoretically increase the price of fuel and heating oil in our country, but when we see the evolution of the price of oil and future projections, there is no significant increase.“
Block prices?
Price freezes are often put forward as the solution to counter the crisis. Bertrand Candelon does not seem really convinced: “Our French neighbors have blocked, they are experiencing a record deficit. Our German neighbors have injected 200 billion, which is obviously very good, but the German budgetary situation is much better than ours with a public debt which is around 60% of GDP whereas we are at 100%. On the other hand, if the prices are soaring again like this summer, so it might be wise to cap vital energy consumption“.
However, to hear the UCLouvain economist, we must be careful with this “solution” price caps. This represents enormous costs for public finances, it is not beneficial for the climate and it especially favors large consumers.