Environment and Climate Change Minister Steven Guilbeault has emphasized Canada’s potential role as a pivotal consensus builder at this year’s crucial international climate negotiations. He sought to quell concerns that Donald Trump’s recent victory in the presidential election might obstruct progress in the upcoming discussions.
“Our window to prevent global average temperatures from exceeding 1.5 degrees Celsius is swiftly closing, necessitating unified action from all nations,” Guilbeault emphasized during an interview prior to the talks, highlighting the urgency of the climate crisis.
The forthcoming negotiations in Azerbaijan, scheduled to extend over the next two weeks, are anticipated to be fraught with tension and disagreements. Participants from various countries are poised to delineate new climate finance objectives and outline ambitious national climate plans essential for global sustainability efforts.
Catherine Abreu, a prominent Canadian climate policy expert, has expressed skepticism regarding the potential outcomes of these discussions, noting the historical challenges faced in climate negotiations.
Despite three decades of international dialogue, the global emissions have reached unprecedented levels, with fossil fuels accounting for approximately 80 percent of the world’s energy consumption. Abreu pointed out that the presence of a heightened number of oil lobbyists at recent summits is particularly concerning.
Nevertheless, Abreu remains hopeful, acknowledging that these negotiations represent a “really important space” for climate action. She stressed that the agreements forged within this context are foundational to climate policy across the globe.
This year’s international climate negotiations in Azerbaijan, known as COP29, are crucial in shaping global climate policy moving forward.
What is COP29?
COP29 marks the 29th annual conference of the parties that ratified the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change, scheduled to take place from November 11 to 22. This significant gathering has historically been a platform for many critical climate agreements.
Among notable outcomes from past conferences, the Kyoto Protocol, which was the first legally binding agreement aimed at curbing greenhouse gas emissions, was adopted during COP3 in 1997. Nearly two decades later, the landmark Paris Agreement sought to limit global warming to well below two degrees, with a more ambitious target of 1.5 degrees Celsius.
Canada previously hosted COP talks nearly two decades ago in Montreal, marking its active engagement in global climate diplomacy.
What are Canada’s priorities?
Canada aims to secure an agreement on a new climate finance goal while advocating for other nations to develop ambitious national climate plans. These objectives align closely with the Paris Agreement, which mandates nations to update their climate strategies every five years, with the next set of updates scheduled for 2025.
Julie Segal, a climate finance policy analyst, indicated that the success of this year’s conference will largely depend on whether Canada and other affluent countries can establish a financial target robust enough to support significant climate initiatives worldwide.
Segal emphasized that Canada has a pivotal role to play by setting a high benchmark and recognizing the responsibility of wealthier nations to assist more vulnerable countries as they transition to sustainable practices.
Some assessments have suggested that the new climate finance goal could exceed a staggering $1 trillion.
Minister Guilbeault expressed his willingness for Canada to assume the role of a “bridge builder” during these talks, facilitating communication and cooperation among varying interests.
While he refrained from commenting on specific financial figures under consideration, Guilbeault underscored the critical need for accessible financing for developing nations to combat climate change effectively.
Who’s going?
Despite a significant guest list, the overall number of participants at COP29 has seen a considerable decline compared to last year. Recent registration figures indicate approximately 32,000 attendees, a marked decrease from the 85,000 participants at the previous conference held in Dubai.
Canada’s delegation, poised to make a substantial impact, will be led by Minister Guilbeault, alongside the country’s climate change ambassador and chief climate negotiator.
Notably, the premiers of Alberta and Saskatchewan are not expected to attend, diverging from their participation in last year’s conference due to dissatisfaction with the federal government’s promotion of provincial interests on the international stage.
Alberta confirmed it’s sending its environment minister this year, while Saskatchewan, which incurred an estimated $765,000 hosting its own event at the last conference, has yet to announce attendance plans after a recent general election.
How will the U.S. election outcome shape the talks?
Donald Trump’s recent victory is anticipated to cast a shadow over the upcoming conference proceedings, despite the former president not taking office until January.
Experts believe that nations looking to challenge ambitious climate agreements in Azerbaijan might be invigorated by Trump’s return to power. Bill Hare, CEO of Climate Analytics, mentioned that significant groundwork has been laid to ensure the continuity of negotiations should Trump ascend to office again, though it might dilute the momentum for a favorable resolution in Baku.
Minister Guilbeault, however, sought to alleviate these concerns, affirming that the Biden administration will continue to represent U.S. interests during the negotiations.
He expressed confidence that the United States would maintain its role as a vital partner in these critical discussions, insisting on the longstanding collaborative history between the countries in climate negotiations.
A brief glossary of climate policy jargon to help navigate COP29
With climate policy discussions often clouded in technical jargon, Catherine McKenna, Canada’s former environment minister, highlighted the importance of clear communication.
To enhance understanding among attendees, here are some key acronyms and phrases expected to dominate this year’s conversations
NCQG: The new collective quantified goal, which will be central to the negotiations alongside the climate finance discussions.
NDC: Nationally determined contributions refer to the frameworks that each nation must submit and revise every five years as part of their commitment to the Paris Agreement.
Net-zero emissions denote a situation whereby any greenhouse gases released into the atmosphere are balanced by equivalent amounts being removed, allowing Canada to strive towards its legislated aim of achieving net-zero emissions by 2050.
IRA: The Inflation Reduction Act, a U.S. law that designates $369 billion in incentives aimed at promoting clean energy and climate initiatives. Trump has signaled intentions to restrict unspent financial provisions.
This report by The Canadian Press was first published November 10, 2024.
**Interview with Catherine Abreu, Canadian Climate Policy Expert**
**Interviewer:** Thank you for joining us today, Catherine. COP29 in Azerbaijan is right around the corner. What’s your perspective on Canada’s role in these international climate negotiations?
**Catherine Abreu:** Thank you for having me. Canada has positioned itself as a potential consensus builder at COP29, with Minister Guilbeault expressing a commitment to fostering dialogue among nations. Given the urgency of the climate crisis and the rapidly closing window to limit warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius, it’s crucial for Canada to assume that role.
**Interviewer:** Minister Guilbeault has indicated the importance of unified action. What challenges do you foresee at this conference, especially with the recent U.S. election results?
**Catherine Abreu:** The political dynamics have undoubtedly shifted with Trump back in the spotlight. His victory may embolden countries that are hesitant about making ambitious commitments. Historically, we’ve seen that climate negotiations can become contentious, and with a polarized atmosphere, it will require significant effort from leaders to navigate the disagreements and keep momentum towards meaningful outcomes.
**Interviewer:** You’ve mentioned skepticism regarding the potential outcomes of these discussions. Can you elaborate on that?
**Catherine Abreu:** Absolutely. Despite decades of dialogue, global emissions remain at an all-time high, primarily driven by fossil fuel consumption. Adding to my concern is the increasing presence of oil lobbyists at these summits, which complicates negotiations. However, I also believe that COP29 is a crucial space for progress—we cannot underestimate the importance of the agreements shaped here for future climate actions.
**Interviewer:** In light of these challenges, what do you find hopeful about the upcoming negotiations?
**Catherine Abreu:** I see potential in the platform COP29 provides for nations to communicate their climate strategies and share innovative solutions. Even if the outcomes are slow to manifest, establishing frameworks and commitments during these discussions can lay the groundwork for future action. We need the agreements coming out of COP29 to be ambitious enough to inspire global adherence.
**Interviewer:** Canada is aiming for a new climate finance goal this year. How vital is this aspect of the negotiations, especially for developing nations?
**Catherine Abreu:** It’s absolutely vital. A robust climate finance goal can provide the necessary resources for vulnerable nations to implement their climate strategies. Affluent countries like Canada have a moral responsibility to support those less fortunate in transitioning to sustainable practices. If we can set a strong benchmark at COP29, it will pave the way for significant climate initiatives globally.
**Interviewer:** Lastly, as you prepare for COP29, what do you hope will change as a result of these talks?
**Catherine Abreu:** I hope to see a stronger commitment to tackling climate change through actionable agreements on finance and national climate plans. This year, more than ever, we need to unite our efforts and acknowledge that the stakes are incredibly high. I genuinely believe that with collective resolve, we can make strides toward achieving a sustainable future.
**Interviewer:** Thank you, Catherine, for sharing your insights. We look forward to seeing how COP29 unfolds.
**Catherine Abreu:** Thank you for having me. It will be interesting to witness how this pivotal moment in climate diplomacy plays out.
