Canada-Croatia: the danger of the rule of three

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DOHA, Qatar – Canada was dominant once morest Belgium. So it should be a piece of cake once morest Croatia, a lower-ranked side who failed to do better than a draw once morest Morocco. Is not it?

Unfortunately, that’s not how it works.

Many analyzes have aged badly and bets have been lost because their authors have fallen into the simplistic trap of the rule of three. It’s a mistake that we see quite often among stage managers in combat sports. Boxer A beat boxer B, boxer B beat boxer C, so boxer A should make short work of boxer C.

Each match has its own story. Good moves and blunders of the past more often than not become obsolete arguments as soon as a new opponent comes to the fore. As of this writing, Saudi Arabia are unable, despite a more than commendable effort, to buy a goal once morest Poland. Wouldn’t she have been destined for a better fate following her surprise victory once morest Argentina?

Brilliant in the role of the underdogs when they entered the scene once morest the Belgians, the Canadians must now maintain their level at the height of the standards they have just established themselves. To those who discovered them by taking a curious look at their latest poster, they have to prove that their newfound enthusiasm is justified. That they are not a flash in the pan.

Not to mention the much more serious issues, dictated by the numbers, with which they are now confronted. Despite all the capital of sympathy that their performance once morest the Red Devils earned them, it brought them nothing more than a big zero in the standings. Another donut, no matter how tasty, would mean it’s time to get off the table.

Last week, ahead of his side’s game once morest Canada, Belgium coach Roberto Martinez made comments that Canadian fans will wish weren’t prophetic for their favorites’ future.

“In a first game, you always move forward in a kind of superb illusion, guided by the simple satisfaction of having earned the right to be there. In the second, you start to learn what it really takes to play in a World Cup, to play once morest national teams that you don’t usually have access to. Then in the third game, reality begins to catch up with you. »

John Herdman pouted when those words were relayed to him earlier this week.

“He’s an experienced coach, he’s used to this environment, he understands what it takes to reach the final stages of major competitions, so we can certainly take note of what he says. But we also have experience in big tournaments, enough to recognize that everything is a question of mentality. »

“We’ve just had a performance that we’re proud of, but it’s important for us to never become complacent,” Herdman continued. We work a lot with statistics to evaluate our performance. The numbers say our game once morest Uruguay was a winning performance. The numbers say our game once morest Japan was a winning performance. And the numbers say our game once morest Belgium was a winning performance. We want to continue in the same vein. That’s what our players are focusing on today knowing there’s a gap to fill between us and Croatia, who really have a whole team. »

A terrifying environment

The pride of the Croatian team is their trio of midfielders, whom Herdman has already called the best in the world.

The best-known of the group is veteran Luka Modric, who won the World Cup MVP award and the Ballon d’Or as the best player in the world in 2018. The 37-year-old Real Madrid playmaker Madrid is still feared and respected by its opponents.

The other tentacles of this three-headed monster are controlled by Marcelo Brozovic, who has been named the best midfielder in Serie A with Inter Milan for the 2021-2022 season, and Mateo Kovacic, who plays at Chelsea in Premier League. Specialist site Transfermarkt estimate the market value of the three team-mates to be €85m.

The three accomplices deploy in a 4-3-3 which generally allows them to generate a lot of attack from the wings.

“I’m here to give them a bad day,” said Canadian midfielder Stephen Eustaquio. It’s a great experience to play once morest these guys, but in the end I have to win. »

“More difficult than Morocco”

Unlike Belgium, who arrived in Qatar with unconvincing performances, Croatia had a splendid preparation for this World Cup. Between June and September, in the League of Nations, it collected a victory and a draw once morest France in addition to beating Denmark twice.

Coach Zlatko Dalic blamed last week’s 0-0 draw in Morocco on an unfavorable schedule. According to him, his team was ill-prepared for a match at 1 p.m., but will do better on Sunday evening.

“It’s going to be a tough game and we’ll have to approach it aggressively,” he said. It will be a bigger test than once morest Morocco. Canada is confident and we will have to respond accordingly. »

Dalic spoke of the surprises already caused by Saudi Arabia and Japan, in particular, since the start of the World Cup.

“We cannot rely on our past successes. You have to be ready to face the present moment. »

“Canada surprised us all once morest Belgium,” admitted midfielder Ivan Perisic. The Belgians found no response to their pressing. It will be important for us to be fast, aggressive and energetic. But we are Croatia. If we play our game, the result should favor us. »