California heat wave heightens drought and fire fears

With a drought worsening in the West and a wildfire season looming, California is bracing for the most severe heat wave of the year, one that promises to tax the state’s energy supplies while also delivering a bleak preview of the challenging months to come.

The heat wave will bring triple-digit temperatures to the valleys and inland regions of the southern state, as well as many parts of the rest of the state, increasing fire risks. This is also happening as parts of Northern and Central California are resorting to water restrictions as drought rapidly alters the landscape.

On Lake Oroville over Memorial Day weekend, dozens of houseboats came to rest on cinder blocks because there wasn’t enough water to contain them. At Lake Mead, the largest reservoir in the United States, the water level dropped to regarding 1,072 feet Wednesday night, a low not seen since it was filled in the 1930s.

The Colorado River, where the reservoir is located, supplies water to 40 million people in Arizona, California, Colorado, Nevada, New Mexico, Utah and Wyoming. The authorities indicated that its water level might fall even more.

The incoming heat wave may exacerbate that lack of moisture, experts said.

“With high temperatures, we will get more evaporation and less water to use later. Obviously, it’s not going to rain much anytime soon,” said Mike Wofford, a meteorologist with the National Weather Service in Oxnard. “I’m not sure how much worse things will get. They’re bad enough already.”

Extreme temperatures are unusual in Los Angeles in June, which is generally still within a marine layer of clouds and fog, Woffard said.

The heat will be temporary, but the combination of intensely high temperatures and prolonged drought will worsen California’s critical weather condition.

“The first heat waves, as well as those that emerge this summer, will exacerbate a situation that is already serious,” said climatologist Bill Patzert, stressing that it is “too early” in the year for such an event.

“It crosses a lot of boundaries and it really impacts everyone,” he explained.

The west has always been dry, but the last few years have been some of the worst.

According to the Los Angeles Almanac, six of the last 10 years have had below-average rainfall. The parched period from 2011 to 2016 were the driest five continuous years ever recorded in downtown Los Angeles.

Since Oct. 1, the center of the county has received a meager 5.8 inches of precipitation, regarding 41% of normal, making it the eighth driest year in the last 144, as records were kept.

The effects of the latest drought are already showing up across the region.

In the Bay Area this week, Santa Clara officials declared a water shortage emergency, which might lead to mandatory water restrictions for the area’s 2 million residents. In May, Marin County declared a drought emergency, shortly following Gov. Gavin Newsom expanded his April 21 drought emergency across a vast swath of the state.

More than 40 of California’s 58 counties are now under a state of drought emergency.

And while declining water supplies may affect people locally, the results can resonate across the country, particularly as the entity produces much of the nation’s agriculture.

Many Central Valley farmers have already stated that projections for the year are bleak due to the drought, and some openly question their future in the state.

So far, Southern California’s water supply hasn’t been as affected by the drought, but that may be temporary.

Jeffrey Kightlinger, general manager of the Metropolitan Water District of Southern California, said the region’s water supply comes primarily from the Colorado River and the Sierra Nevada mountain range in northern California. Climate change is reducing the snow cover that feeds both.

“We know we are going to have more droughts, they will be deeper and hotter, with less supply,” Kightlinger said. “We’re pretty well prepared for the world of 2020 and 2021, but that doesn’t mean we’re ready for 2030.”

The impending heat wave will also hit the power grid as millions of residents turn on their air conditioners.

During a similar heat wave in August, the California Independent System Operator, the body that runs the power grid for most of the state, declared a statewide Stage 3 emergency for the first time since 2001.

The agency issued a heat bulletin Friday forecasting high power demand.

“It’s still too early to tell the precise impact next week’s high temperatures will have on the power grid,” spokeswoman Anne Gonzales said. Flexible alerts might be managed for energy conservation to avoid continuous blackouts.

Climate experts have also sounded the alarm regarding how the combination of extreme heat and drought can create bone-dry vegetation that acts as fuel for wildfires. Last year was the worst wildfire season on record in the state, and 2021 is already headed for another severe season.

Also, the heat can make firefighting much more difficult, so if flames do ignite, fire crews will have to deal with dangerous conditions.

To help prevent wildfires from breaking out during previous heat waves, state utilities implemented preventative power shutoffs known as Public Safety Power Shutoffs, or PSPS.

It’s too early to tell if that will need to be done next week, Southern California Edison spokesman David Song said, noting that outages are typically driven by extreme wind events, not just heat.

About 25% of the utility’s 50,000-square-mile coverage area is in a high-risk fire zone, and residents in those areas will be notified 48 to 72 hours before any outages, Song said.

Even iconic California beaches are threatened by drying out across the state, USC research scientist Essam Heggy said.

The sandy beaches are fed by sediment carried down by the mountains. Without rain, coastlines begin to recede, which is happening, reported Heggy, who has spent the last 20 years researching deserts on Earth and other planets.

California’s coastline has jumped regarding 60 feet inland in places in the last 10 years, he noted.

“The entire coastline, from San Diego to Los Angeles, is suffering tremendously from coastal erosion due to drought,” Heggy said, adding that expensive waterfront homes also prevent sediment from reaching the shoreline.

Newport Beach and other wealthy coastal communities have had to haul sand from elsewhere to replenish erosion, Heggy said.

Heat waves are among the most dangerous natural hazards, according to the World Health Organization. During an unprecedented period last September, the deaths of at least three people in Los Angeles were related to heat exposure, the county coroner’s office determined.

Children, elderly residents and the homeless are among the most vulnerable when temperatures soar. Los Angeles has not yet announced whether it will open cooling centers next week.

But residents are advised to plan ways to stay cool. Outdoor activities should be limited, especially in the evenings, and pets and people should never be left alone in closed cars, the National Weather Service stressed.

Song noted that peak electricity hours are from 4 to 9 pm and recommended that residents pre-cool their homes and avoid using high-energy appliances during that time.

According to Wofford, the incoming heat wave is being driven by both a ridge of high pressure from the southeast and a weakened flow of air on land, which is what brings the more typical cooling sea breeze in June.

But, according to Patzert, it’s all part of the same human trend toward global warming.

“It’s unusually early, large and prolonged,” he said of the extensive heat, “but it’s consistent with what we see, over the last two decades, that we relate to climate change.”

There have been significant periods of heat and drought in the past, he said, including a long stretch from 1945 to 1978, but the key difference between then and now is the size of the state: California’s population has quadrupled since the 1950s, which puts more pressure on their electrical grid, agricultural production and limited water supply.

Heat waves are getting longer, more intense and more frequent, Patzert said, and there are no signs of getting better.

“We live in a warmer, drier California,” he noted.

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