The theme of today’s report is “shipping ex-dividend market indicators: Evergreen, Huiyang”.
Wanbao Investment Consultant Cai Mingzhang emphasized that the main theme of Taiwan stocks in May was a deep rebound. Electronic stocks, which had fallen sharply since the beginning of the year, rebounded rapidly.2330-TW), rose sharply for three consecutive days before the MSCI quarterly adjustment took effect, with a total increase of 46 yuan, or 9%, challenging the quarterly line of 556 yuan.
Due to TSMC’s strong rebound, the broader market closed in red by 215 points in May, which was also close to the quarterly backpressure. The quarterly line, also known as the lifeline, is the demarcation point between long and short-term Taiwan stocks in the medium term. After starting at 18,619 in January this year, it fell below the quarterly line in February and plummeted by 1,100 points in April. So far, the market has been below the quarterly line for more than 3 times. Therefore, if Taiwan stocks want to turn short, the first step must be to effectively stand on the quarterly line.
Volume is the leading indicator of price. When the market fell below the quarterly line in February, the 10-day average volume was 330 billion yuan and the 20-day average volume was 300 billion yuan. Now the 10-day average volume is only 230 billion yuan and the 20-day average volume is 240 billion yuan. Yuan, obviously the volume shrinking pattern, cannot successfully attack the pressure of the last quarter.
Wanbao Investment Advisor Cai Mingzhang emphasized that Taiwan electronic stocks are the supply chain of US technology stocks, so the long and short rhythm of Taiwan stocks closely followsNasdaq. But here comes the problem,Nasdaq May still closed down 2%. Inflationary pressure is lingering. In contrast, Taiwanese electronics stocks have reflected ahead of schedule.onceNasdaqThe follow-up is weak. Under the pressure of the FOMC’s firm decision to raise interest rates two yards on June 15, the market has rebounded by 1,000 points in early June, so we must stop watching.
The biggest reason for the deep rebound of electronic stocks in this wave is that it is judged that the US inflation has peaked and fell.US dollar indexFalling back from a 20-year high of 105, the 10-year bond yield has pulled back from a 3-year high of 3.2%. These two indicators show that inflationary pressures have eased, but the market will misjudge and be too happy.
This time, global inflation, especially in Europe and the United States, is the most serious.EURThe district first released the May CPI, Germany’s 8.7% hit a record high, and major natural gas and oil rose. Now the EU has decided to embargo Russian crude oil imports. Although land transportation of oil is exempted, international oil prices are bullish, West Texas and Brent are close to a barrel 120 US dollars, when the oil price is 120 yuan, what is the concept? Soaring 60% this year,EURIf prices in the region do not come down, the European Central Bank will be forced to raise interest rates by one rate in July, which is the first rate hike in more than 10 years.EURThe district will experience a recession in 2023.
EURIf there is an economic headwind in the region, it will cast variables on the global economy and the stock market.EURThe region’s May CPI hit a record high, and the US May CPI may not fall as expected by the market.
The weight of various factors in the US CPI depends on three major parts. Housing rents have the largest weight, accounting for 30 to 40%, and house prices have recorded the largest increase in 20 years. This year, rents are estimated to rise by another 10%. In addition, the weight of energy and food is also very large. Now the peak driving season has made the average gasoline price in the United States hit a record high of $4.6 per gallon.
Judging from this, the CPI may rise once more in May. Before the FOMC held on June 15, there is only the price data of the CPI in May. Beware of if it is higher than 8.3%, there is no suspense that the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates by two yards. I’m afraid there will be a strong hawkish statement, why?
Wanbao Investment Advisor Cai Mingzhang emphasized that President Biden rarely met with Fed Chairman Powell, and the keyword was “inflation”.
The November midterm elections are regarding whether President Biden is lame. The biggest public complaint in this year’s election is the soaring prices. The outside world believes that Biden’s meeting with Powell is a scapegoat. On the surface, it does not interfere with the independent decision-making of the Federal Reserve, but in fact, it will deal with inflation. The responsibility falls to Powell, so when the CPI does not fall, Powell’s mission must be fulfilled, and only more hawkish measures can be taken.
Note that U.S. stocks fell from the previous day’s high following Biden met Powell on Tuesday.US dollar index10-year government bond yields have rebounded, and they don’t agree with Biden’s dumping of inflation. The May CPI to be announced in mid-June may explode. To avoid this uncertain variable, the weighted electronic stocks will not rise for the time being, and replace them with small and medium-sized ones. Electronic lively performance.
On Wednesday, TSMC, UMC (2303-TW), MediaTek (2454-TW), Silicon Power-KY (6415-TW) rest, Ep*(6531-TW), Hiroyasu (6457-TW), Tian Yu (4961-TW), Fuding (8261-TW) daily limit. However, due to the dual impact of weakening terminal demand and the closure of mainland cities, most electronic stocks will decline in second-quarter earnings, and chasing high is risky.
The impact of the closure of Kunshan and Shanghai was not clearly reflected in the revenue in April, and the revenue in May will be reflected. After the Dragon Boat Festival, it will be announced that the revenue in May will be a mirror of the demon.
Mini LED Faucet Fucai (3714-TW) warned that the revenue in the second quarter will decline compared with the first quarter due to the closure of the mainland. Therefore, it is judged that the EPS in the second quarter is lower than 1 yuan, and the EPS for the whole year is not as good as the expected level of 4 yuan.
Auto parts manufacturer Tongzhi (3552-TW) Affected by the closure of the mainland, if the stock price was not warned and forced to announce the results, otherwise the EPS loss in April was 0.21 yuan, but the stock price rebounded 50% from the low of 124.5 yuan, and it is estimated that the EPS in the second quarter will be much lower than The first quarter’s 2.49 yuan may not reach the market’s estimated 9 yuan level for the whole year, and the actual price-earnings ratio is nearly 30 times.
Wanbao Investment Advisor Cai Mingzhang emphasized that it is recommended to focus on the second quarter financial report in stock selection.
It was indeed affected by the closure of the mainland city and the weakening of terminal demand, but the stock price did not fall but rose, and this kind of stock short response. Performance growth, but the stock price did not rise, multi-strategy. The direction in which the stock price eventually rises or falls will return to corporate profits.
Among them, Shanghai has begun to fully unblock, but the positive benefits to shipping are gradual.
In terms of container ships, personnel entering and leaving Shanghai Port must have a 72-hour negative nucleic acid test, which is still very troublesome. Inventory stocking during the end-of-the-year Thanksgiving and Christmas shopping season in the United States will begin in mid-to-late July, so the freight rate on the Asia-to-US line is gradually rising, not a sudden surge now.
Reflected in the share price of Container Sanxiong, of course, it has gradually pushed up. Evergreen (2603-TW) fell 3% in May, but did not rise, it will return to the quarterly line on Wednesday, and there will be performance before the ex-dividend on June 29.
After Shanghai’s unblocking, real estate and infrastructure construction will prompt iron ore to replenish inventories. The capesize index, which has fallen for 6 consecutive days, rebounded on Tuesday, and the bulk stock price has risen.
Hui Yang – KY (Ex-dividend on June 8)2637-TW) on Wednesday stood at hundreds of dollars, which is a clear signal that the bulk wheel is regarding to start. Among the shipping stocks that went ex-dividend in June are Taihua Investment Holdings (2636-TW), China-Philippines (5609-TW), Zhengde (2641-TW) Wait.
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