2023-11-03 19:08:48
Estimated read time: 4-5
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PROVO — BYU’s Lone Star State woes continued as they traveled down to Austin and left with a 35-6 loss.
Texas entered the season as the heavy Big 12 favorites and still remains a top contender. They looked the part Saturday, even without their starting quarterback, as they dominated the lines of scrimmage to double up BYU in rushing yards.
Despite the lopsided score, BYU’s defense held up its end of the bargain by forcing three turnovers and winning two red zone battles inside the 5-yard line. But the Cougars offense remained the limiting factor and handed the ball right back to Texas. Quarterback Kedon Slovis had three turnovers — two interceptions and a fumble — and all three were converted into Texas touchdowns.
BYU makes an East coast trip Saturday to Morgantown, West Virginia, in a battle of five-win teams searching for the bowl-clinching sixth win (5 p.m. MDT, FS1).
Game Grader
(Opponent-adjusted statistical dominance via Pick Six Previews)
3-year average (2020-22): BYU 60.5 (16th of 69 Power Five) | West Virginia 47.5 (44th)
2022 season: BYU 45.4 (50th of 69 Power Five) | West Virginia 37.8 (55th)
2023 season: BYU 39.4 (54th of 69 Power Five) | West Virginia 48.5 (40th)
My Game Grader formula is a measure of statistical dominance — and adjusts for opponent strength — and is a key piece of my preseason evaluation. After peaking at No. 5 in 2020, BYU slid to No. 26 in 2021 and then collapsed last year all the way down to No. 50 (of 69 Power Five teams) for the second-worst grade of the entire Kalani Sitake era.
BYU fell eight spots following its decisive loss to Texas. They are graded relatively low (54th of 69) compared to their 5-3 record, because in three of their wins they were out-gained by 100+ yards. Their tight margins caught up to them Saturday.
West Virginia entered 2023 as a unanimous pick near or at the bottom of the Big 12. Instead, they are off to a 5-3 start with three conference wins plus a Backyard Brawl win over rival Pittsburgh.
Mountaineer fans would not have believed such a start. They check in at No. 40 in 2023 Game Grader, which would be their highest mark since 2020.
West Virginia with the ball
West Virginia offense: 50th of 69 Power Five (overall), 57th passing, 31st rushing
BYU defense: 40th of 69 Power Five (overall), 36th passing, 58th rushing
In the preseason, West Virginia was experimenting with an old-fashioned run-heavy offense to play to the roster strengths at offensive line and running back. There were rumors of having three running backs on the field together in some formations. They also had uncertainty at quarterback and a roster hole at receiver.
So far this is head coach Neal Brown’s best work yet, as he has created a complex yet effective scheme. Garrett Greene is taking care of the ball (eight touchdowns to two picks) but also leads all Big 12 quarterbacks in rushing yards/game. CJ Donaldson is the workhorse back while freshman Jahiem White has provided a spark and a league-best 7.9 yards per carry.
Defensive coordinator Jay Hill complimented the offensive line, calling it the strongest they have faced so far this season. They certainly have the accolades, as three linemen have earned Freshman All-America honors: Zach Frazier, Tomas Rimac, and Wyatt Millum.
The BYU defense has lived off of turnovers, but those will be harder to grab Saturday as West Virginia is the most run-heavy offense in the Big 12 (64% run), which means less chances for interceptions. West Virginia’s strongest dimension (31st in rushing) wins the advantage over BYU’s weakest (58th rushing defense).
BYU with the ball
BYU offense: 68th of 69 Power Five (overall), 61st passing, 68th rushing
West Virginia defense: 58th of 69 Power Five (overall), 47th passing, 64th rushing
As we head into November, I was wondering if the BYU coaches would start to sprinkle in some packages and drives for backup quarterback Jake Retzlaff. The overall offense is second-worst in Power Five — only ahead of Iowa — and Slovis is ninth or worse in the Big 12 in all key passing metrics. Plus, the new redshirt rules allow for four regular season games, plus a bowl, without burning a year of eligibility.
Retzlaff was rated the No. 1 JUCO transfer quarterback following throwing for 7,898 yards and 82 touchdowns over two seasons. This week he got the full promotion to starter and received all first-team reps in practice. Reports mention Slovis has some nagging injuries, so it may be a combination of reasons, but regardless BYU will feature a new guy under center.
They might use a spark.
I like to cover the “strength vs. strength” unit matchups, but the ground game here is a pair of weaknesses. BYU has struggled to the run ball, while the Mountaineers have one of the worst rush defenses. Something has to give here, and the past two games (Texas Tech and Texas) are good indicators for BYU.
If BYU keeps their normal pass/run split as the most pass-heavy team in the Big 12, look out for West Virginia ballhawk Beanie Bishop who is second in the Big 12 with four interceptions.
Game prediction
A quarterback change brings variability: different playing styles, potentially different packages and schemes, and sometimes it can rally the other 10 starters around him. We’ve seen it go the other direction, too, as a new starter climbing up from JUCO to Power Five takes several games to get up to speed.
Here I’ll take West Virginia with their home field advantage and their strong rushing attack once morest BYU’s statistical weakness. I’ll take the ball control team and strong offensive line once morest a BYU team that is fresh off a physical battle once morest a playoff contender.
West Virginia 28 | BYU 17
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Brett Ciancia is the owner of Pick Six Previews, a college football preview magazine graded as the “Most Accurate Season Preview” since 2012 (via Stassen). Ciancia was named a Heisman Trophy voter in 2019 and was invited to the FWAA’s All-America Team selection committee in 2020.
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