In other words, there was no problem seeing a Ukraine evolve in a similar way to its Russian neighbor. “From the moment it chooses its own path, the very existence of Ukraine becomes intolerable for Putin and Russian power.explains the researcher. Hence the desire to ‘train’ it, like a wild animal that refuses to comply“, he lets go.
Overconfidence
Nine months later, the military operation launched by Russia has not gone as planned. “There is a basic miscalculationstates Nina Bachkatov. They had to be like at home in Ukraine. They seem to have believed that by making an assault on kyiv, Zelensky’s government would be so panicked that it would fall. This is really the original error“, she repeats, speaking of the blindness of Vladimir Putin and the Russian authorities.
These problems encountered by Russia have thus led it to review its objectives originally set. “The initial objectives are no longer the achievable goals todayabounds Nicolas Gosset. They came up against the wall of realities and the difficulties encountered by Russian operations on the ground. Failing to have succeeded in ‘dressing’ Ukraine, the Kremlin has slipped towards an objective of partial territorial amputation of the country“, he adds.
In this way, the objectives that emerge in the long term are twofold. On the one hand, to punish Ukraine by depriving it of part of its territory “in a logic similar to the Franco-Prussian war of 1870“, comments the political scientist. On the other hand, to maintain “a permanent gun to the head of Ukraine” in the event of a choice of foreign policy that would displease Moscow.
And now ?
Originally, the roots of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict were therefore multiple. It’s not just a territorial problem, an identity problem or a foreign policy problem… but a bit of all three. “The question is extremely complex because we are no longer in a classic war“, analyzes Nina Bachkatov. “This is not just a war of territorial conquest“, confirms Nicolas Gosset.
The question of finding a way out of the conflict remains open, especially since “Putin is someone who has a lot of trouble questioning himself“, acknowledges Nina Bachkatov. “We have a kind of propaganda machine that becomes almost unstoppable“, worries about him Nicolas Gosset.
Good that potential negotiations have been mentioned, the ULB researcher remains pessimistic for the moment about the fate of Ukraine. “The Ukrainians are demanding a complete withdrawal of Russian forces, which seems unrealistic at the moment. Russia, meanwhile, is always in the business of saying what they have is theirs and what’s left is negotiable. I doubt there can be any real diplomatic talks in the short term, beyond just making contact“, he imagines.