The National Rally is finally breathing a little easier this weekend. After missing the decisive march towards power during the last legislative elections, Marine Le Pen and Jordan Bardella are not throwing in the towel. This Sunday, in Nice, the tandem rallied its troops with a new slogan: “Until victory!” » The message is clear: they are preparing for a possible dissolution, but this time, without the “bad apples” who ruined their previous campaign. Only small downside: their local ally, Éric Ciotti, will be conspicuous by his absence.
This weekend feels like a return to basics for the RN. Not for its facade speeches, but because the party leadership spent a good part of the week… in court. The trial of the FN parliamentary assistants, which opened on Monday, will continue until November 27. Nine former Frontist MEPs, including Marine Le Pen, find themselves in the dock. For the head of the RN, the stakes are colossal: ten years in prison, a million euros fine and ten years of ineligibility hang over her head.
Despite these legal shadows, the RN has never seemed in such a position of strength. This is the paradox of this return to school. We thought they were on the ground, demobilized after the legislative rout, and yet… their influence has never been so great. Marine Le Pen, behind the scenes, pulls all the strings: she chooses who enters or leaves the government, who Michel Barnier must reframe, and imposes the line to follow. In short, Marine Le Pen reigns, even if she cultivates her usual mystery. Nothing filters through on its intentions regarding the first budgetary decisions, not a word on the strategy of the one who, in the shadows, still holds the reins.
Marine Le Pen juggles with “red lines”
However, some clues emerge. Michel Barnier seems to want to make both ends meet: by sparing the richest, he also preserves the working classes, thus avoiding immediate censorship. Marine Le Pen, faithful to her “spirit of openness”, continues to juggle with her famous “red lines”. But she warns her troops: out of the question of diving into a “strategy of chaos”. Barnier’s overthrow is not imminent. Dressed in the costume of the head of state, Marine Le Pen refuses to play the arsonist with “low-end” censorship. If there must be censorship, it will be on a sufficiently major subject to rally all voices. Until then, no rush. The bet is risky, of course, but skillfully calculated.
The RN is walking a tightrope. By waiting, he risks giving ground to a man determined to eat into his electorate: Bruno Retailleau. The new boss of Beauvau does not intend to play second fiddle and has already marked his territory. Small revealing detail: this week, he had lunch with Nicolas Sarkozy, the essential master of the Interior of the 2000s. A bad memory for former FN members: in 2007, Sarkozy had siphoned off the votes of Jean-Marie Le Pen, taking the party from qualifying for the second round in 2002 to a modest 10% five years later.
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Seventeen years later, Bruno Retailleau dreams of playing this score again. Between his impactful media outings, his assertion of unfailing firmness and his offensive on the rule of law, he does not hide his ambitions. Referendum on immigration, reinstatement of double jeopardy, rejection of multiculturalism… so many themes dear to Marine Le Pen that Bruno Retailleau appropriates.
But for him, the key to success lies in concrete results. If he manages to prove that he can really solve immigration and security problems, the RN could well find itself running out of arguments. Worse, while Bruno Retailleau unabashedly adopts the RN’s discourse, how could it still justify censorship against a government whose key element has become… their best spokesperson? Ultimately, the Vendée could well prove to be the impenetrable shield of Michel Barnier, reducing to nothing the desire for a motion of censure on the side of the RN. Clearly, this political return is nothing ordinary.
