2024-09-17 21:29:03
As it had suggested, the Banque de France has revised upwards its growth forecasts for the French economy in 2024. According to its latest projections presented this Tuesday, it is now counting, like INSEE, on a GDP increase of 1.1% this year, instead of 0.8% previously. This increase is explained by the various revisions made by the Institute of Statistics on past quarters. The end of the year would be mediocre. Growth would be zero in the fourth quarter, after having jumped by 0.4% between July and September thanks to the fallout from the Paris 2024 Olympic Games.
The Banque de France, on the other hand, left its growth forecast for 2025 unchanged, at 1.2%, a figure slightly higher than that put forward in a recent note by the General Directorate of the Treasury (+1%). The year 2025 would start with a very low growth gain, “close to 0.2%”. But according to its experts, economic activity would accelerate at a quarterly rate of around 0.3% to 0.4% next year, compared to 0.2% on average this year. In 2026, GDP would grow by 1.5%.
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What are the key factors that led to the Banque de France’s upward revision of the French economic growth forecast for 2024?
Table of Contents
Banque de France Revises Upward French Economic Growth Forecasts for 2024
In a move that signals a potential resurgence in the French economy, the Banque de France has revised its growth forecasts for 2024, aligning with the predictions of the National Institute for Statistics and Economic Studies (INSEE). According to the central bank’s latest projections, presented on Tuesday, France’s GDP is expected to increase by 1.1% this year, marking a 0.3% upward revision from its previous forecast of 0.8%.
Revisions to Past Quarters Drive Growth Projections
The revision is largely attributed to adjustments made by INSEE to past quarterly data. These revisions have bolstered the Banque de France’s confidence in the economy’s growth prospects, with the new forecast indicating a more optimistic outlook for the year.
Growth Momentum Slows in Q4
While the upward revision is a positive development, the Banque de France’s projections also suggest that growth momentum may slow down in the fourth quarter of 2024. According to the central bank’s forecast, GDP growth is expected to come to a standstill in the final quarter, following a 0.4% jump in the third quarter. This moderation in growth is a reminder that the French economy still faces challenges, and policymakers must continue to implement measures to support sustained growth.
Implications for Monetary Policy and Economic Stability
The Banque de France’s revised growth forecasts will likely have implications for monetary policy in France. With inflation remaining within the European Central Bank’s target range, the upward revision could lead to a more accommodative monetary policy stance. This, in turn, could support further economic growth and stability in France.
Context and Comparison with European Peers
The French economy has faced headwinds in recent years, including the COVID-19 pandemic and the ongoing energy crisis. Against this backdrop, the Banque de France’s revised growth forecasts provide a welcome injection of optimism. France’s growth prospects now appear more in line with those of its European peers, such as Germany, which is also expected to grow by around 1% this year.
Conclusion
The Banque de France’s upward revision of French economic growth forecasts for 2024 is a positive development that underscores the country’s resilience in the face of external shocks. While growth is expected to slow in the fourth quarter, the revision is a testament to the economy’s ability to adapt and recover. As policymakers and businesses look to the future, this revised forecast provides a foundation for confidence and investment in France’s economic growth.
Keywords: Banque de France, French economy, GDP growth, INSEE, monetary policy, economic stability, European Central Bank, France, Germany.
Meta Description: The Banque de France has revised its growth forecasts for the French economy, predicting a 1.1% increase in GDP this year. Read more about the implications for monetary policy and economic stability.
Optimized Image: A graph showing the revised GDP growth forecast for France, with a caption: “Banque de France revises upward French economic growth forecast for 2024.”
What are the reasons behind the Banque de France’s upward revision of GDP growth forecasts for 2024?
Banque de France Revises Upward French Economic Growth Forecasts for 2024
In a move that signals a potential resurgence in the French economy, the Banque de France has revised its growth forecasts for 2024, aligning with the predictions of the National Institute for Statistics and Economic Studies (INSEE). According to the central bank’s latest projections, presented on Tuesday, France’s GDP is expected to increase by 1.1% this year, marking a 0.3% upward revision from its previous forecast of 0.8%.
Revisions to Past Quarters Drive Growth Projections
The revision is largely attributed to adjustments made by INSEE to past quarterly data. These revisions have bolstered the Banque de France’s confidence in the economy’s growth prospects, with the new forecast indicating a more optimistic outlook for the year.
Growth Momentum Slows in Q4
While the upward revision is a positive development, the Banque de France’s projections also suggest that growth momentum may slow down in the fourth quarter of 2024. According to the central bank’s forecast, GDP growth is expected to come to a standstill in the final quarter, following a 0.4% jump in the third quarter. This moderation in growth is a reminder that the French economy still faces challenges, and policymakers must continue to implement measures to support sustained growth.
Implications for Monetary Policy and Economic Stability
The Banque de France’s revised growth forecasts will likely have implications for monetary policy in France. With inflation remaining within the European Central Bank’s target range, the upward revision could lead to a more accommodative monetary policy stance. This, in turn, could support further economic growth and stability in France.
Context and Comparison with European Peers
The French economy has faced headwinds in recent years, including the COVID-19 pandemic and the ongoing energy crisis. Against this backdrop, the Banque de France’s revised growth forecasts provide a welcome injection of optimism. France’s growth prospects now appear more in line with those of its European peers, such as Germany, which is also expected to grow by around 1% this year.
Conclusion
The Banque de France’s upward revision of French economic growth forecasts for 2024 is a positive development that underscores the country’s resilience in the face of external shocks. While growth is expected to slow in the fourth quarter, the revision is a testament to the economy’s ability to adapt and recover. As policymakers and businesses look to the future, this revised forecast provides a foundation for confidence and investment in France’s economic growth.
Keywords: Banque de France, French economy, GDP growth, INSEE, monetary policy, economic stability, European Central Bank, France, Germany.
Meta Description: The Banque de France has revised its growth forecasts for the French economy, predicting a 1.1% increase in GDP in 2024. This upward revision signals a more optimistic outlook for the year, despite expected slow growth in the fourth quarter.
