ANALYSIS | Venezuela at a Crossroads: Possible Scenarios for Overcoming the Crisis After the Elections
This is not the first time Venezuela appears to be confronted with a limited set of options following an election. Analysts consulted by CNN note that these scenarios have also been detrimental to democracy. The last two presidential elections after President Hugo Chávez’s death (2013 and 2018) led to complex situations similar to the current one, marked by disputed official victories, a questioned electoral system, popular mobilizations that included violence, and migratory effects that harmed regional coexistence.
However, there appears to be a consensus among experts regarding one significant difference: the opposition’s victory now seems clearer than ever (even in former Chavista strongholds), as does the potential for fraud due to the absence of published disaggregated voting records.
Why can the results of the opposition in Venezuela be verified but not those of the National Electoral Council (CNE)?
Benigno Alarcón, director of the Center for Political and Government Studies at the Andrés Bello Catholic University of Venezuela, explains that the current situation is different because the opposition’s victory is indisputable both domestically and internationally.
“It has never been this clear before. In 2013, we had a disputed election but without confirmation of the opposition’s success; in 2018, there was undeniable fraud, but the opposition did not even participate. Furthermore, when Juan Guaidó declared himself acting president, his lack of election undermined his standing,” he stated to CNN.
Additionally, in this election, the opposition united despite the disqualification of its main leader, María Corina Machado, and there was overwhelming support for Edmundo González. This unity has persisted even after the National Electoral Council announced Nicolás Maduro’s victory. Overall, the situation remains uncertain, and there is no agreement on how it will unfold.
What Are the Possible Scenarios?
Analysts interviewed by CNN for this article are not optimistic about the available options. Historical experiences suggest that a political deadlock like the current one has generally benefited Maduro.
Among the new developments in the political landscape, many analysts observe a resurgence of civil society as an active player. “Civil society, which had previously been somewhat inactive, has returned to the forefront through popular mobilizations,” Juan Negri, director of the Political Science and International Studies program at the Torcuato Di Tella University in Buenos Aires, informed CNN.
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ANALYSIS | Venezuela at a crossroads: possible scenarios for getting out of the crisis after the elections
This is not the first time that Venezuela seems faced with a limited range of options after an election. According to analysts consulted by CNN, these scenarios are harmful in terms of democracy. The last two presidential elections after the death of President Hugo Chávez (in 2013 and 2018) ended in labyrinths similar to the current one: marked by an official victory, a questioned electoral system, popular mobilizations that occasionally led to violence, and migratory effects that have strained regional relations.
However, there is emerging consensus among experts regarding a critical difference: the apparent clarity of the opposition’s victory (even in former Chavista strongholds) and the looming possibility of electoral fraud, exacerbated by the lack of transparency in publishing disaggregated voting records. This current climate presents an unprecedented challenge for the political landscape of Venezuela.
Assessing the Current Electoral Climate
Why can the results of the opposition in Venezuela be verified but not those of the CNE? Benigno Alarcón, director of the Center for Political and Government Studies at the Andrés Bello Catholic University of Venezuela, underscores the significance of the current political climate.
- In 2013, the election results were disputed, but the opposition could not confirm its success.
- In 2018, the situation was already widely regarded as fraudulent, yet the opposition abstained from participating.
- The recent election has highlighted a well-defined opposition unity, even in light of the disqualification of its main leader, María Corina Machado, and overwhelming support for Edmundo González.
Despite Nicolás Maduro’s declared victory, the opposition’s united front represents a significant potential shift in the Venezuelan political sphere. The steadfastness of this unity, even after the electoral results were announced, indicates an ongoing tension that may influence future political maneuvers.
Possible Scenarios for Venezuela’s Future
As analysts dissect the ramifications of the recent elections, they discover a series of complex scenarios that Venezuela might face moving forward. While many of these options appear bleak, they shed light on potential pathways out of the current crisis.
Resurgence of Civil Society
Among the noteworthy developments is the resurgence of civil society as a vital player in Venezuelan politics. Juan Negri, director of the Political Science and International Studies program at the Torcuato Di Tella University in Buenos Aires, observes that civil society has reemerged through popular mobilizations. This renewed activism signifies a growing grassroots awareness and potential for meaningful change, despite the challenges that lay ahead.
Potential Outcomes
| Scenario | Description | Impact on Venezuela |
|---|---|---|
| Reaffirmation of Maduro’s Power | Continuation of Maduro’s regime through manipulation of electoral processes. | Increased domestic unrest and emigration. |
| Opposition Unity | A consolidated opposition pushes for legitimacy and reforms. | Possible negotiations for transitional governance. |
| Civil Disobedience | Widespread protests against the government following elections. | Increased repression and potential violence. |
| International Intervention | Heightened pressure from international actors for democratic reforms. | Possible sanctions or diplomatic negotiations. |
Challenges to a Peaceful Transition
While the prospects of opposition viability are bolstered by historical clarity, numerous challenges impede a peaceful transition. The obstacles include:
- Ongoing economic collapse, leading to exacerbated social issues.
- Diplomatic isolation preventing international support for domestic reforms.
- Maintained support from Venezuelan military and governmental apparatuses, solidifying Maduro’s grip on power.
The Role of International Community
The international community plays a critical role in shaping Venezuela’s political future. Global powers, including the United States and countries in the European Union, have voiced their concerns over the legitimacy of the electoral process and the need for reforms. Their pressure could serve as a catalyst for change or, conversely, could solidify existing divides within Venezuelan politics.
Historical Parallels
Venezuela’s political history showcases numerous instances where elections led to political paralysis or upheaval, pointing to a pattern of instability. Both the 2013 and 2018 elections underscore the intricate relationship between electoral legitimacy and political stability, providing essential context for understanding current dynamics. Historical decisions by previous administrations continue to resonate, as the country grapples with the legacies of past leadership.
Conclusion
As Venezuela stands at this critical crossroads post-elections, a multitude of factors will shape its forthcoming political landscape. The interplay of civil society action, opposition dynamics, and international engagement stands to influence the country’s trajectory. While optimism flickers within opposition ranks and civil society, the path ahead remains fraught with challenges, nuances, and uncertainties. A collective engagement from local and international stakeholders will be vital in navigating this transformative phase in Venezuela’s storied political history.