COP29: Brazil’s Climate Goals and the Art of Delegation
Well, folks, welcome to COP29, where promises to save the planet go to die—or at least take a long vacation. Brazil’s delegation has touch down in Baku, Azerbaijan, ready to shake hands and hope no one notices the President didn’t bother to show up. It’s like attending a dinner party and bringing your dog instead of a date; sure, it’s cute, but it does raise some eyebrows.
Now, onto the main course of this climate buffet. Last Friday, the Brazilian government threw out some surprising numbers regarding its greenhouse gas emissions reduction plan. They claim they’ll cut emissions to somewhere between 850 million and one billion tons of CO2 by 2035. That’s like saying you’ll lose weight but giving yourself a 150-pound window to wiggle in. “Can do” attitude, right? But, as Natalie Unterstell, President of the Talanoa Institute, wisely chirped, keeping it below a gigatonne is about as comforting as a diet cola with a chocolate cake on the side.
What’s the Plan, Stan?
Brazil’s Vice President, Geraldo Alckmin, is set to unveil this grand plan in something called the Nationally Determined Contribution (yes, NDC—because we love our acronyms, don’t we?). It’s like signing your name at the bottom of a long list of things you promise to do, but knowing full well you’ll probably just scratch the surface.
So, they’ve hailed a 12% reduction in emissions from last year. Clap your hands, folks! But let’s not start a conga line just yet—Brazil is still releasing a staggering 2.3 billion tons of CO2 equivalent. That’s roughly the weight of about 500 million elephants. Who knew being a major player in climate change meant you also had to be a heavyweight in emissions?
Money Talks—But Who’s Listening?
Now, let’s talk finances (because nothing screams “we care” like a good old-fashioned money debate). COP29 is being held amidst climate catastrophes worldwide—floods, droughts, and perhaps the odd banana peel on the sidewalk. Everyone is scrambling to figure out who will foot the bill to address these disasters. Fernando Sampaio of the Brazil Climate Coalition points out it’s all about resources and a unified response. Easy for him to say—his wallet’s probably not on the table!
And speaking of wallets, with Donald Trump rearing his head once again in American politics, whispers of climate denialism are circling like vultures over a fresh carcass. He previously turned down climate commitments faster than a cat dodges a bath. If there’s one thing COP29 didn’t need, it’s a guest who believes global warming is just a hoax pulled off by the sneaky scientists and their things called “facts.”
A Bright Spot—Deforestation Decrease?
But, wait! Stop the presses! Brazil has brought some good news to the table—the deforestation rates in the Amazon dropped by 30.6%! Now that’s something to put in your back pocket for future climate negotiations. But Márcio Astrini of the Climate Observatory isn’t clapping just yet; he reminds us that reducing deforestation isn’t the whole pie. Brazil needs to focus on the fossil fuel agenda too; after all, we can’t go swinging around a pitchfork in a barn full of hay and not expect to catch fire!
Looking Ahead: Bethlehem 2025
What’s next after Baku? Well, mark your calendars for COP30 in Bethlehem in 2025—yes, the very spot where the climate will miraculously be addressed while everyone sips fair-trade lattes and whispers sweet nothings to trees. By then, all 196 nations must renew their climate commitments, and let’s not kid ourselves: the meter is ticking towards a potential temperature rise of 2.5 to 2.9 degrees Celsius. That’s a bit overcooked, if you ask me.
In wrapping up, Brazil needs to step up and really engage with global discussions around fossil fuels and financing. Because let’s face it, if COP29 is a party, then Brazil needs to be the life of it, not just the one awkwardly standing by the buffet table wondering how quickly they can grab a ‘climate-transformation’ hors d’oeuvre and leave.
As we plunge into these negotiations, let’s remember: ignoring the root cause of climate change will only lead to more disastrous winters and less beach vacations. So, Brazil, time to roll up those sleeves and get to work—or at least practice your best “Sorry, not sorry!” face!
The Brazilian delegation is making its way to the 29th United Nations Climate Conference, commonly referred to as COP29, which kicks off on Monday, November 11, 2024, in Baku, Azerbaijan. Notably, this year, the Brazilian contingent will be attending without the presence of President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, raising eyebrows among climate observers.
To the surprise of many, a significant component of Brazil’s strategy to curb greenhouse gas emissions over the coming decade was unveiled just before the conference, on Friday evening. This announcement has set the tone for Brazil’s approach at COP29.
Brazil’s Vice President, Geraldo Alckmin, is expected to formally unveil the country’s ambitious goals within an official document known as the Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC). The document will detail that by 2035, Brazil aims to emit between 850 million and one billion tons of carbon dioxide, marking a dramatic reduction of 59% to 67% when compared to emission levels in 2005.
Outside the halls of government, climate experts had anticipated bolder reforms from President Lula’s administration. Despite Brazil becoming the second country to present its new NDC—trailing only the United Arab Emirates—the proposed emission figures have sparked concern among environmental advocates. This apprehension is underscored by Brazil’s historical role as a major emitter.
“In practice, [la meta] keeps the country among the few that will still release more than a gigatonne of CO2 per year,” commented Natalie Unterstell, president of the Talanoa Institute and a recognized authority on climate policy. She emphasized that the Brazilian government still has the opportunity to amend its climate targets before formally submitting them to the UN.
Márcio Astrini, executive director of the Climate Observatory (OC), a vast network consisting of over 40 civil society organizations, echoed these sentiments by stating, “If the goal is between 850 million and one billion tons of CO2, in practice, the initial figure is likely to be one billion.” He highlighted that the actual figures will ultimately hinge on the details provided in the NDC during COP29.
According to the Gas Emission Estimation System—a specialized monitoring platform created by the Climate Observatory—Brazil’s total greenhouse gas emissions for 2023 reached 2.3 billion tons of carbon dioxide equivalent (GtCO2e). This represents a notable reduction of 12% in comparison to 2022, when emissions peaked at 2.6 billion tons.
Everything revolves around money
Countries converging at COP29 are largely shaped by the traumatic impacts of extreme climate events. Brazil’s recent struggles—from the devastating floods in Rio Grande do Sul to the appalling drought plaguing the Amazon—place it squarely among nations affected by climate catastrophe alongside Spain, the United States, and several African countries.
At this pivotal conference, discussions are poised to center on climate finance—the pressing question of who will bear the costs of combating climate change and aiding those affected. Trillions of dollars will be necessary to mitigate disaster risks and shield communities from the anticipated consequences of global warming, long warned about by scientists.
To break through the historic financial impasse that positions developed countries against their poorer counterparts at the negotiation table would signify a crucial advancement, argues Fernando Sampaio from the Brazil Climate, Forests, and Agriculture Coalition. “The solution to the climate crisis hinges on resources and a unified response from nations,” he stated.
However, the potential return of Donald Trump as the president of the United States—a nation historically regarded as the second-largest polluter behind China—could cloud the negotiations. Trump, a known climate change skeptic, previously dismissed the emission reduction commitments established under the Paris Agreement during Barack Obama’s presidency.
In 2015, at COP21 in Paris, nations collectively agreed to national commitments aimed at restricting the average global temperature increase to no more than 1.5ºC compared to pre-industrial levels. Current projections for 2024 suggest it may become the hottest year on record, reaching alarmingly elevated temperatures.
Despite their failures to honor previous commitments about funding, American participation remains crucial in contributing to global climate finance, which will play a significant role in negotiations. Analysts have pointed out that Trump’s ascent to power would likely mean a withdrawal from acknowledging American historical responsibilities in climate action.
And the end of fossil fuels?
Brazil enters Baku with some positive news: in 2024, the rate of deforestation in the Amazon plummeted by 30.6% compared to the previous reporting period, which spans from August 2022 to July 2023. Similarly, in the rapidly vanishing Cerrado biome, destruction rates also saw a decrease, with a significant 25.8% reduction—the first positive change in five years.
Yet Márcio Astrini pointed out, “The figures are undeniable, but for those who aspire to take on leadership roles at COP, simply reducing deforestation is insufficient. Genuine leadership necessitates addressing the global agenda and not merely focusing on domestic issues.” He emphasized the need for Brazil to engage substantively in discussions around fossil fuels and climate financing, areas where clarity is still lacking. Petrobras continues to seek authorization to explore oil drilling in the sensitive Foz do Amazonas region, highlighting the ongoing challenges in balancing economic and environmental goals.
What is to come in Bethlehem
As Brazil anticipates the future, it must recognize that by 2025, all 196 countries that are signatories to the Paris Agreement are obligated to renew their national climate commitments. The accumulation of these commitments is crucial for keeping the global temperature rise within the 1.5ºC threshold. However, projections indicate that the world may be on track for a temperature increase of between 2.5ºC and 2.9ºC by century’s end, according to assessments from the World Resource Institute’s NDC monitor.
To ensure a seamless transition from Baku to the COP30 slated for Bethlehem in 2025, Brazil must adopt a cooperative approach. Negotiators in Baku should push for countries to adopt more ambitious targets in their NDCs while also championing the establishment of a new climate financing model that guarantees massive public funding for the most vulnerable populations.
The underlying cause of the climate crisis—the unrestrained combustion of fossil fuels over the past two centuries—must not be overlooked, as this remains the primary factor in escalating climate change, underscored by the scientific consensus. “We cannot forget it: advancing a clear roadmap for the transition away from fossil fuels is essential,” Natalie Unterstell emphasized as COP29 approaches.
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Genda surrounding fossil fuel consumption and financing.”
As Brazil prepares for COP29, the focus cannot solely rest on deforestation rates. The country must also confront its fossil fuel legacy and commit to serious emissions reductions to align with the goals of the Paris Agreement. While the 30.6% decline in Amazon deforestation is a step in the right direction, it’s essential that policymakers do not become complacent. They need to articulate a comprehensive strategy that embraces renewable energy investments, shifts away from fossil fuels, and prioritizes sustainable development.
The Road to Bethlehem 2025
As preparations for COP30 in Bethlehem in 2025 loom on the horizon, expectations are high for member nations to renew their climate pledges. By that time, it will be critical for Brazil to have demonstrated significant strides in reducing its carbon footprint and fostering a global cooperation framework to tackle climate change comprehensively. The urgency is further accentuated by projections indicating a potential global temperature increase of 2.5 to 2.9 degrees Celsius. This scenario underscores the immediate necessity for bold, actionable plans—not merely aspirational targets.
Brazil’s role in COP29 is pivotal not just for its national interests, but for global climate stability. As the delegation enters the conference center in Baku, all eyes will be on its leaders to see if they will emerge as proactive participants in the climate dialogue or simply spectators watching from the sidelines. In the world of climate negotiations, it is not enough to promise action; it is time for Brazil to lead by example and show a commitment to meaningful change. With the continued worsening of climate impacts, there’s no room for half-measures or mere diplomatic niceties—Brazil must buckle down and deliver.
