From Rio de Janeiro
According to the Brazilian electoral legislationthe campaign for the ballot It started last Friday. But as it was already said here, in Brazil there is usually a long distance between reality and the law.
So there was no pause. What did happen was a very short interval for the campaigns of the two adversaries, the former center-left president Lula da Silva (photo)and the current president, the far-right Jair Bolsonaroadapted for the fierce battle that is announced.
unexpected increase
Lula finished the first round with 48.4 percent of the vote, confirming what the most respected surveys and polls in Brazil predicted. On the other hand, the extreme rightist surprised: if the same polls gave him between 34 and 37 percent, but she reached no less than 43.2.
Among the various explanations for this unexpected increase, analysts agree that there was a shift of voters from other candidates towards Bolsonaro, as well as those who declared themselves “undecided.” Everyone wanted to prevent a Lula victory in the first round.
In any case, the center-left is still the favorite, but at a shorter distance than might be foreseen.
His advantage, recorded in that first week towards the ballot, ranges between eight and ten points. But in front of the volatility recorded in the previous round keeps the concern high not only among those responsible for his campaign, but also among the electorate, the financial market, the international scene and the defenders of democracy.
Brazil is clearly divided down the middle, with a distance between the democrats and the supporters of the worst and most abject president in history that no one except the most radical supporters of Bolsonaro might foresee.
The most recent polls confirm that the landscape is divided in the middle, indicating a worrying atmosphere. In this first week towards the ballot, no concrete government proposal was seen, but rather an intense and furious shootout between both parties.
absurd lies
Lula’s campaign fires once morest the far-right documented accusations, while that of Bolsonaro spreads absurd lies in staggering numbers on social media once morest the adversary, without anyone being able to prevent their movement. He speaks for converts, by the way, but his intention is to reach more people.
The former president has achieved significant support from eminences of liberalism and conservatism, with emphasis on economists who collaborated with the former president Fernando Henrique Cardoso and they have a strong influence among the owners of the money, as well as historical figures of what was the Brazilian social democracy.
Cardoso himself and several of his important former ministers defend the vote in Lula, in the name of preserving democracy.
In addition, the former president obtained the full support of the current senator and candidate who achieved third place in the first round, the conservative Simone Tebet.
Governor’s support
Bolsonaro, in turn, exhibits the support of elected or re-elected governors in the most populous and economically powerful provinces of Brazil. (Sao Paulo, Rio de Janeiro and Minas Gerais), which does not necessarily mean that their vote will spread among the electorate. And also of exponents of the extreme right, in addition to the self-titled and powerful “bishops” of evangelical sects.
They will be tense days, between now and October 30. Lula continues as a favorite, and everything indicates that he will emerge victorious from the polls.
extreme polarization
But now it is crystal clear that, in addition to inheriting a shattered country, he will also inherit a divided, radically divided country.
There has never been a similar scenario in any of the elections since redemocratization. The presidents elected since 1989 have certainly inherited a divided Brazil, but between various groups, with two or three stronger ones.
A country virtually split in half, and With a Congress where the right, the extreme right, the opportunists and the corrupt always form the majority, it will be an extra weight for Lula da Silva in 2023.
And another extra weight – and macabre – is in the last minute economic measures announced by Bolsonaro: in his attempt to increase the electorate that supports him, he has just announced “social benefits” that are around five billion dollars.
Where will he get that money from, no idea: for now, the holes will be in education and health programsand they will have to be covered up in the next government, which begins in 2023, when Bolsonaro will be back at home or on his way to court.