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The upcoming transfer of authority from Jair Bolsonaro, the leader of Brazil’s far-right, to his successor—a standard democratic procedure—appears highly uncertain. Bolsonaro has openly declared his intent to challenge a potential electoral defeat in the October presidential election, casting a shadow of tension over Brazil’s 2022 political landscape.
Brazil’s presidential race is shaping up to be an extraordinary contest between Bolsonaro and former President Lula, whose eligibility was reinstated following the March dismissal of corruption charges against him. Neither the “tropical Trump” nor the “father of the poor” has formally announced their candidacy.
Yet, polls consistently indicate Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva, the Workers’ Party (PT) veteran, as the frontrunner, commanding 48% support. This is more than double the backing for the incumbent president, who trails significantly at 22%.
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Lula could potentially secure a first-round victory if his alliance with former Sao Paulo Governor Geraldo Alckmin, his prospective running mate, materializes. He seems uniquely positioned to unite a broad republican coalition that failed to thwart the far-right in 2018. Political scientist Joao Alexandre Peschanski observes, “A new understanding of Lula’s potential to rescue Brazil from the darkness of the Bolsonaro era is emerging.” The economic climate, however, will strongly influence the election outcome. Brazil grapples with the devastating aftermath of the coronavirus pandemic—a staggering death toll (618,000) and a severe socio-economic crisis.
“He’s astute, and the PT missed that”
Unemployment and underemployment plague one-third of Brazilians. Food insecurity affects 56% of the nation’s 212 million people. Nevertheless, 17 million impoverished households will soon receive a 400-real (approximately 63-euro) monthly stipend. Bolsonaro aims to leverage this new social aid program to revitalize his campaign. “He’s not foolish, and that’s something the PT overlooked,” Peschanski notes. Further, Lula’s party hasn’t effectively reclaimed former supporters who switched allegiance to Bolsonaro.
Sergio Moro, polling at 9%, is another key player. This former judge, central to the wide
Uncertainty shrouds Brazil’s fledgling democracy. Could Jair Bolsonaro orchestrate a seizure of power should his poll numbers plummet? What course would the military take, given their recent reinstatement alongside him? Highly politicized, would the armed forces tolerate a leftist resurgence?
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This HTML snippet shows a news article discussing the upcoming Brazilian presidential election between Jair Bolsonaro and Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva. Key takeaways include:
Close Election: The article highlights the close race between Bolsonaro and Lula, with Lula currently leading in polls (48% to Bolsonaro’s 22%).
Bolsonaro’s Challenge: Bolsonaro’s stated intention to contest a potential electoral defeat is a major point of concern, raising questions about the stability of the transition of power.
Lula’s Potential Coalition: Lula’s potential alliance with Geraldo Alckmin could help him secure a first-round victory by uniting a broader coalition.
Economic Factors: The article emphasizes the significant impact of Brazil’s economic struggles (high unemployment, food insecurity, and the aftermath of the COVID-19 pandemic) on the election outcome. Bolsonaro’s new social aid program is presented as an attempt to counter this.
* Political Commentary: The article includes analysis from political scientist Joao Alexandre Peschanski, highlighting both Lula’s potential and Bolsonaro’s strategic moves. Peschanski notes that Lula’s party may have underestimated Bolsonaro’s political astuteness.
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