In the electoral battle that Republican Donald Trump and Democrat Joe Biden will almost inevitably fight in the United States for the White House this November, places like the town of The Plains, in Fauquier County in Virginia, form the line of forehead. Hinge electoral constituencies in hinge states. They are the places where the key votes are found that will tilt the final result to one side or the other. And where, today, only one thing is clear: although they have won decisively on this Super Tuesday, none of the candidates are completely convincing.
“People are not very motivated…both candidates have their flaws,” admitted Susan, a Republican volunteer handing out leaflets at the entrance to Coleman Elementary School, in a rural area on the outskirts of The Plains where locals along of the road advertise horse feed and agrotourism proposals. The influx “is less this time than four years ago,” this retiree considered.
The peculiar system of American presidential elections means that in most states, the winner takes all the electoral votes, regardless of their margin of victory, whether by a single vote or by an overwhelming majority. This means that, although all votes are equal in theory, in practice some are more equal than others. Voting Republican in a State with a large Democratic majority like California, or voting Democratic in a Republican one like Texas, is a laudable democratic gesture, but it does not serve to tip the balance. Only a handful of states are competitive, with very close majorities. In them—in Pennsylvania, Michigan, Georgia, Nevada, Arizona…— every vote counts. And the parties fight to get every vote.
Virginia is one of those States. Traditionally a Republican bastion, in the last two decades it has been leaning towards the Democratic side in the presidential elections, which it has supported in every presidential election since 2008. Broadly speaking, an urbanized north, which has the federal government and the defense industry like some of its great economic engines, it votes blue (the Democratic color); the rural south maintains its conservative positions. And the line where both realities come face to face passes through Fauquier, a lifelong Republican county, but where the margins by which that party prevails have been reduced in the last presidential elections. This Super Tuesday saw a trickle of voters at their polling stations.
Of them, those who agreed to reveal their vote were divided almost equally between supporters of Biden and his predecessor. Few declared themselves enthusiastic regarding his election: an echo of surveys that find that 70% of Americans would prefer that this November’s electoral battle not once once more feature Biden and Trump. Someone confessed that, following voting for the Republican in 2016, he had voted for the Democrat in 2020, and was now returning to the Trumpist fold. Someone else admitted that, following years of voting red, he was now blue “to death.”
“I voted for Trump, and I’m going to do it once more in November,” said Sheila, another retired woman, following leaving the polling station. “When he was president he did what he said he would do, close the border, make energy prices reasonable. “I don’t like going shopping anymore, every time I go the prices have gone up.” But he also admitted that, although he “loves this country, and he loves us,” his candidate “does not have the best personality in the world.”
Giselle Mancioni, a former real estate agent, was also leaning towards the former president. “He is the strongest candidate in the race,” he said, expressing his hope that he will solve what he considers the main American problems: the progress of the economy – a widespread complaint among Republican supporters, despite an economic growth of 3.2 % and an unemployment rate of 3.5%—and crime. But his enthusiasm ended there. Almost immediately, and regarding the 91 charges in four trials that Trump faces, he acknowledged that “honestly, I would prefer that the Republican candidate be someone else, but at this point he is the clear winner, so I am not going to change my mind.”
Democratic voters in Fauquier County, by contrast, have very different priorities heading into November. This bloc alludes to the need to defend the democratic system and freedoms as its great motivation for supporting Biden.
“Democracy is in danger. And if we, the people, do not manage to get her out of this hole, this country will no longer be the country of the people. It will not be the same country, nor the same world in which we live. My fear is that if the other candidate wins, we will never have elections once more. Not like you are, open. I fear he will turn this country into his playground,” said Gail Rainbow. “That’s why Biden is my candidate,” said this former Republican voter who is still registered as such on the electoral roll. But, while declaring her support, she acknowledged that the president’s age, and his public lapses, “are a concern.”
Another Biden voter, who did not want to identify herself by name, was also not particularly passionate regarding her selection and limited herself to mentioning in her favor that she likes her Government. “I vote for him, mainly, because I don’t like the Republican candidate. I come from a lifelong Republican family, I’ve always voted Republican… but now I can’t vote Republican. “The Republican party has left me out.”
Among those who went to the school to cast their vote, one name was conspicuous by its absence: that of Nikki Haley, the former governor of South Carolina and Trump’s only rival until this Super Tuesday, in which he once once more accumulated defeats and only managed to win the election. State of Vermont. Only one person, a woman who was running towards her vehicle, acknowledged having marked the ballot with her name: “In November I will vote for Biden. But today I did it for Haley.” Because? “Because she wanted to poke Trump in the eye.” This Wednesday, Haley announced that she was withdrawing from the Republican race and cleared the way for Trump.
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