The Covid-19 pandemic has not tempered the growing appetite for air travel. The number of aircraft worldwide is expected to soar 82% by 2041, Boeing estimates on Sunday.
The world fleet, all manufacturers combined, should reach 47,080 aircraft in 2041, compared to 25,900 in 2019, details the group in an annual report released on the eve of the opening of the Farnborough air show (United Kingdom).
This is slightly less than the 49,405 planes in 2040 forecast last year, as Boeing revised down its forecast for annual global economic growth (+2.6% instead of +2.7% in mean). This should result in less strong growth in passenger traffic than expected (+3.8% instead of +4.0%).
On the other hand, it is a little more than the latest forecasts from Airbus, unveiled on Monday, which estimates that the world fleet will reach 46,930 aircraft in 2041 against 22,880 aircraft in service in 2020.
Supply, the main obstacle
Boeing is now counting on the delivery, all manufacturers combined, of 42,710 new aircraft in the next twenty years (41,170 without counting the Russian market, which is very uncertain), or 900 less than in its forecasts last year.
“In 2022, demand is no longer the main obstacle (to the growth of the aerospace market) since people can travel again,” said Darren Hulst, commercial marketing manager at Boeing. “It’s the supply”, with all the problems of supply chains and staffing shortages.
Environmental constraints
The global single-aisle fleet, used more for domestic traffic, has returned to 98% of what it was before the pandemic. Those of jumbo jets, intended for international travel, are at 78%. But the dynamics are changing rapidly.
In addition, Boeing takes into account each year a little more new constraints in terms of sustainable development such as the price of sustainable aviation fuel or possible new carbon taxes, said Darren Hulst. How much will these measures really affect the market? “It still remains largely unknown,” he said.
ats/gma