2023-06-18 06:28:00
Boeing sees the fleet of commercial planes doubling in the next 20 years, according to estimates published on Sunday and slightly higher in volume than those of its competitor Airbus.
For the American aircraft manufacturer, 48,575 aircraft will be in service in 2042, against 24,500 last year. This will require producing, all manufacturers combined, 42,595 aircraft, half of which will be devoted to the replacement of existing aircraft today, and the other half to net growth.
North America will absorb 23% of these new aircraft, Asia-Pacific 22%, Eurasia 21% and China alone 20%.
These projections, published on the eve of the opening of the Bourget air show near Paris, are in line with those of Boeing last year, when the firm had mentioned a global fleet of 47,080 aircraft in 2041.
On Wednesday, Airbus said it expected a need for 40,850 new passenger and cargo planes by 2042, bringing the world fleet to 46,560 aircraft, compared to 22,880 at the start of 2020.
For Darren Hulst, head of commercial marketing at Boeing, after the Covid-19 hiatus which affected demand, “we are moving from the recovery period to a return to the fundamentals that have underpinned air travel” for 60 years.
He notably mentioned the link between the propensity to travel and the growth of world GDP, which according to him should reach 2.6% per year, or 70% over two decades, which will bring 500 million people into the middle class. , more likely to travel by plane.
Boeing further believes that low-cost airlines will continue to grow in the next 20 years and “more than double in size” although at a slower rate than in the past 20 years, when their fleet has been multiplied by six.
Demand for cargo planes should also remain strong, around 3.5% per year, exceeding the increase in international trade, estimated at 3% per year over 20 years according to Boeing.
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