2023-06-17 22:23:45
The US aircraft manufacturer Boeing, like its larger rival Airbus, expects the global aircraft fleet to double within two decades. In 2042, the airlines should be using a total of around 48,600 machines, the US group said on Sunday night in Arlington. Boeing marketing manager Darren Hulst estimates that the trend will be towards longer planes with more seats or closer seating.
“Without such productivity gains, the fleet would still have to be around 20 percent larger in 2042,” he said in an online conference with journalists at the upcoming air show in Le Bourget near Paris, which begins this Monday (June 19).
The forecast of the US group corresponds in principle to that of the world’s largest aircraft manufacturer Airbus. A few days ago, the European manufacturer forecast that the global fleet would double to 46,560 machines by 2042. However, Airbus’ forecast only includes aircraft with at least 100 seats, while Boeing also counts slightly smaller regional jets. This is the main reason why the total figures for the US group are slightly higher.
According to Boeing’s forecast, almost 42,600 new passenger and cargo planes will be delivered between 2023 and 2042 in order to achieve the doubling of the fleets. Around every second machine replaces an older model, the others serve to expand capacity. “Of the machines that are in operation today, regarding 6,000 will probably still be in use 20 years from now,” said Hulst. Low-cost airlines in particular are expected to grow strongly, increasing their fleets and passenger numbers by two and a half times by 2042 compared to 2022.
As before, the lion’s share of the new aircraft is likely to be narrow-body aircraft with an aisle between the seats. According to Boeing’s forecast, they will account for around 75 percent of deliveries in the years 2023 to 2042. In this segment, Airbus’ model family A320neo has dominated the market for years compared to the competitor model Boeing 737 Max, which was also not allowed to take off worldwide for more than a year and a half following two fatal crashes.
So far, however, the US group has been ahead of the pack when it comes to long-haul wide-body jets such as the Boeing 787 and 777, and especially large cargo planes. Similar to Airbus, Boeing predicts a need for 7,440 new passenger aircraft and 925 large cargo jets for the 20 years to 2042.
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