A Year in Review: Reflections on 2024
Table of Contents
Table of Contents
Geopolitics and the global Landscape
Linas Kojala, Director of the Vilnius-based geopolitics and Security Studies Center (GSSC), observed that while RussiaS advancement in Ukraine in 2024 outpaced 2023, the territorial gains remained modest. By November, Russia had secured less than 3,000 square kilometers of Ukrainian territory, representing a mere 0.5% of Ukraine’s total land area.He pointed out that President Zelensky’s visit to the U.S. in October and the unveiling of the Victory Plan failed to resonate considerably with the American public. Though, Ukraine has as shifted its messaging, emphasizing its commitment to peace. This recalibration might counter critics who perceive Ukraine as an obstacle to ceasefires. Koala emphasized that despite discussions about the decline of the West, the U.S. maintains a position of strength, with its nominal GDP constituting 26% of the global economy and U.S. defense spending accounting for over a third of global military expenditures.“Meanwhile, Ukraine’s diplomatic efforts have seen mixed results, particularly in Western capitals like Washington,” Kojala noted.
“Turning to China, Kojala pointed out several challenges the country faces, including weak domestic consumption, a real estate bubble, stalled investments, and demographic issues.
“`
Rising geopolitical tensions with Western nations may further hinder China’s growth. The country will need to carefully weigh the costs of supporting aggressors like Russia against the benefits of maintaining pragmatic relationships with wealthy Western nations,” Kojala concluded.A Missionary’s Perspective
Klaipėda-born missionary Hermanas Šulcas, who has dedicated years to helping children overcome poverty in Africa, shared that the enduring bloodshed in Ukraine and the emergence of new conflicts worldwide, especially in Africa, deeply affected him in 2024. He highlighted the devastating humanitarian consequences of the ongoing civil war in Sudan, underscoring the limitations of international crisis management institutions. Šulcas, who operates a youth homestead in Kretinga district, Lithuania, reflected on the numerous educational, sports, and mentoring events he hosted throughout the year for children from diverse backgrounds, including those from orphanages and families struggling financially. The homestead, which is also home to a flock of geese, chickens, and recently, two young donkeys alongside four resident ponies, provides a safe and nurturing habitat for these children.“I hope the New Year will finally bring more peace within each of us and in every country, especially those embroiled in war,” Šulcas expressed.
Looking Ahead: A Hope for Peace
Tomas Janeliūnas, a Lithuanian political scientist, professor, and expert in international relations and security studies, observed that global attention in 2024 was understandably consumed by the violent conflicts in the Middle East and Ukraine. “I hope the New Year will bring more peace for all,” he said, echoing a sentiment shared by many as we enter a new year.2024: A Year of Triumphs and Turmoil
2024 was a year marked by both significant geopolitical shifts and remarkable sporting achievements. While international tensions simmered, particularly regarding the ongoing conflict in Ukraine, Lithuania celebrated victories on the global stage and navigated its own crucial elections.Geopolitical Landscape
Political analyst Tomas Janeliūnas reflected on the complexities of the Russia-ukraine conflict, noting a potential for resolution given the change in US leadership. Though, he cautioned against underestimating Russia’s belligerence, emphasizing the Kremlin’s strategic utilization of Western fears, particularly the specter of nuclear escalation.Janeliūnas believes that a shift in western mindset, from fearing escalation to understanding Russia’s own vulnerabilities, is crucial for achieving a position of strength in negotiations.“Russia exploits and manipulates these fears, particularly by playing on the fear of “nuclear escalation…In my opinion, Russia’s primary goal is to deter NATO from becoming directly involved in a war with Russia. This implies that Russia itself seeks to avoid a confrontation with NATO forces (especially the U.S.) because it fears that such a conflict would lead to its complete defeat. And that is precisely what would happen, even now, despite the ongoing discussions about the West’s alleged unpreparedness, shrinking military production capacities, or under-equipped military units,” T. Janeliūnas forecasts.
Lithuanian Elections and Triumphs
2024 was a year of political activity for Lithuania,with three major elections: the Presidential and European Parliament elections in May,followed by the General elections in October. Incumbent President Gitanas Nausėda secured a resounding victory in the May runoff against Prime Minister Ingrida Šimonytė, with an unprecedented 75% of the vote.This landslide solidified Nausėda’s mandate for a second term. Beyond the political arena, 2024 witnessed remarkable achievements in the world of sports. Lukas Kubilius, a prominent Lithuanian Kyokushin karate athlete and owner of the Shodan karate school, proudly recounted the successes of his students. Notable among these was the Shodan team’s notable performance at the Lithuanian Kyokushin Karate Cadet and Youth Championship in May, were they secured 31 medals, including 15 golds. This dominance cemented Shodan’s position as the leading karate school in Lithuania. Kubilius further highlighted the prestige of the Karate Champion of Champions tournament held in Tokyo last July, where several Shodan athletes emerged victorious. Notably, Kubilius recounted an encounter with a young Japanese karateka who credited kubilius’s own achievements as inspiration for his own success in becoming a national champion and earning a place on the Japanese team for the World Championship. Eimutis Židanavičius, a councilor of the Palanga Municipality, identified Donald Trump’s victory in the US presidential election as the most impactful global event of 2024, significantly shaping discussions about NATO, Europe, Ukraine, and the global landscape.Židanavičius also highlighted the Labor Party’s landslide victory in the UK as a major event, signifying a major political shift in the country. Lithuania’s political landscape underwent a significant shift in 2024 with the Social Democrats emerging victorious in the parliamentary elections. This victory ended the reign of the incumbent center-right Homeland Union government led by Prime Minister Šimonytė. The Social Democrats secured a pleasant majority in the parliament, winning 52 seats in the 141-seat legislature. They formed a coalition government with the Democratic Union “For Lithuania” and the Dawn of the River Neman, a relatively new and unpredictable party according to political analyst E. Židanavičius. “What surprised me in the elections, was the rise of the Dawn of the River Party, which is inexperienced, very motley and unpredictable to the other partners of the Coalition,” he stated. Alongside the parliamentary elections, a referendum on dual citizenship was held concurrently with the presidential election on May 12th. The proposed amendment to permit dual citizenship garnered substantial support with 74.49% of voters in favor. However, the initiative fell short of the required turnout threshold, failing to pass. Retired Lithuanian army chief Valdas Tutkus identified the developments in the defense industry as the most significant events of 2024. “Sadly, the war in Ukraine has continued to claim lives, with rising death and casualty tolls despite repeated calls for both sides to negotiate a peace deal. With Trump now in office, peace talks in Ukraine are likely to take shape, potentially producing a resolution,” he said. Throughout 2024, Lithuania forged closer defense ties with Germany through a series of crucial agreements. A key progress was the partnership between Rheinmetall,a German defense company,and Lithuania to establish a state-of-the-art 155mm artillery ammunition production facility in Baisogala. This €180 million project aims to bolster Lithuania’s defense capabilities and strengthen its industrial base. Construction on the 340-hectare site is underway, with operations anticipated to commence by mid-2026. In September 2024,Lithuanian Minister of National Defence Laurynas Kasčiūnas and German Defence Minister Boris Pistorius signed a complete defense cooperation agreement in Berlin. This landmark agreement establishes the legal framework for the permanent stationing of a German brigade in Lithuania, marking Germany’s first permanent foreign military deployment since World war II. The agreement also includes provisions for tax exemptions, social benefits, and the recognition of professional qualifications for German military personnel and state-owned companies operating in lithuania. Following the agreement, Lithuania commenced construction of a military base in Rūdninkai, near Vilnius and close to the Russian border. This base is expected to accommodate up to 4,000 German troops by the end of 2027. In December 2024, Lithuania agreed to acquire 44 Leopard 2 tanks from Germany, marking the country’s largest defense purchase to date. the agreement was finalized by Lithuania’s new Minister of National Defence Dovilė Šakalienė and German Defence Minister Boris Pistorius.“All political narratives revolved around that event and what his return to power means for NATO, Europe, Ukraine, and us,” Židanavičius told BNN.
## Analysis of Lithuanian Perspectives on 2024
The text provides a tapestry of Lithuanian voices reflecting on the events of 2024, highlighting both global concerns and national triumphs.
**Global Concerns Dominate:**
A unifying theme emerges: concern over geopolitical instability.
* **russia-Ukraine Conflict:** Tomas Janeliūnas, a prominent political scientist, analyzes the complexities of the ongoing conflict, emphasizing Russia’s strategic exploitation of Western fears. He believes a shift in Western mindset, from fear to understanding Russia’s vulnerabilities, is essential for achieving a stronger negotiating position.
* **Shifting Global Order:** The election of Donald Trump in the US is identified as a pivotal event by Eimutis Židanavičius, a councilor at Palanga Municipality. This event dominated global discussions about NATO, Europe, and Ukraine, shaping geopolitical perceptions throughout 2024.
* **China’s Challenges:** Economist Žygimantas Kojala paints a picture of China facing internal challenges like a real estate bubble and demographic issues, potentially hindering its growth. He cautions about the country’s balancing act between supporting aggressors like Russia and maintaining relationships with the West.
**Lithuanian Triumphs & Challenges:**
Amidst global turmoil, Lithuania celebrates national successes and grapples with internal political shifts:
* **Election Season:** A triple election year saw President Gitanas Nausėda secure a resounding victory in the Presidential election, indicating strong public support. This consolidation of power is juxtaposed with the Social Democrats’ victory in the parliamentary elections, signifying a shift in the Lithuanian political landscape.
* **Sporting Achievements:** Lukas Kubilius, a Kyokushin karate champion, highlights the stunning performance of his Shodan karate school students, who dominated the Lithuanian Kyokushin Karate Cadet and Youth Championship. Their success affirms Lithuanian prowess in the sporting arena.
* **Addressing Poverty**: Hermanas Šulcas, a missionary working with underprivileged children, shares a poignant viewpoint on the year.
While celebrating the achievements of his youth homestead, he emphasizes the devastating humanitarian consequences of conflicts worldwide. His unwavering hope for peace resonates deeply.
**Overall:**
This collection of voices paints a picture of Lithuania in 2024 – a nation aware of global challenges but simultaneously fueled by national pride and resilience.While geopolitical uncertainties loom large, Lithuanian achievements in sports and the reaffirmation of democratic values through elections demonstrate a nation striving for progress amidst turbulence.
this is a fascinating piece! It offers a multi-faceted view on 2024 from a lithuanian outlook, touching on international relations, domestic politics, and even sporting achievements. Hear’s a breakdown of its strengths and some suggestions for further development:
**Strengths:**
* **Diverse Perspectives:** The piece effectively weaves together voices from various sectors – political analysts,athletes,politicians,and even a retired army chief. This provides a well-rounded picture of Lithuanian concerns and priorities.
* **Balance:** It doesn’t shy away from complex issues like the Russia-Ukraine conflict and the impact of Donald Trump’s re-election. It acknowledges both potential dangers and opportunities.
* **Specificity:** It delves into specific events like the Lithuanian elections, the Shodan karate school’s success, and defense cooperation with Germany. These details ground the narrative and make it more engaging.
* **Clear Narrative Thread:** The piece follows a chronological structure, effectively guiding the reader through the key events of 2024.
**Suggestions for Development:**
* **Deeper Analysis:** While the piece presents various perspectives, it could benefit from further analysis of these viewpoints. For example,
* How do Janeliūnas’ concerns about Russia’s belligerence align withLithuania’s foreign policy decisions?
* What are the implications of the Social democrats’ victory for Lithuania’s relationship with NATO and the EU?
* How might the rise of the “Dawn of the River” party impact Lithuanian politics in the long term?
* **Contextual Background:** Providing some historical context for certain events would enhance understanding. As an example, briefly explaining the history of Lithuanian-German relations could shed light on the significance of the defense cooperation agreement.
* **Connect the Threads:** While the piece covers diverse topics, connecting them more explicitly would strengthen the narrative. For example, how does Lithuania’s strengthening defense posture relate to its concerns about Russia’s aggression?
* **Visual Enhancements:** Incorporating relevant images or maps could make the piece more visually engaging and accessible.
**Overall:** This is a valuable piece that offers a unique window into Lithuanian perspectives on a pivotal year. With some further development, it could become even more insightful and impactful.
