Indonesia Braces for Heavy Rains and Hydrometeorological Disasters
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Table of Contents
Indonesia is currently experiencing a especially intense rainy season, drastically different from previous years. This difference is attributed to a weak La Niña phenomenon, resulting in colder than usual sea surface temperatures in the Pacific Ocean. BMKG head Dwikorita Karnawati emphasized this phenomenon’s impact, stating, “Last year, we experienced El Niño, leading to dry conditions, while this year, we have a weak La Niña. This has intensified the growth of rain clouds, thereby increasing the intensity and volume of rainfall.
According to Dwikorita, this has led to a 20-40 percent increase in rainfall across moast of Indonesia. The situation is further aggravated by Indonesia’s geographical location, situated between two continents and two oceans, making it susceptible to cyclones characterized by strong winds, high waves, and extreme weather.
Adding to the complexity are atmospheric dynamics like the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) and the potential for cold air (cold surge) originating from Siberia and moving towards western Indonesia. These factors are predicted to be active during the Christmas and New Year period, heightening the risk of extreme weather events.
Dwikorita explained, ”Indonesia is currently at the peak of its rainy season. This, coupled with La Niña and the active combination of the Madden-Julian Oscillation, Rossby waves, Kelvin waves, and local convective activity in the western, southern, and central regions of Indonesia, strengthens the atmospheric dynamics that support heavy rainfall in various regions.”
In anticipation of potential hydrometeorological disasters, the BMKG has been issuing early warnings as November. These warnings target residents in disaster-prone areas while coordinating with relevant agencies and local authorities to mitigate potential risks.
Indonesia Braces for Potential of Heavy Rains and Flooding
Indonesia’s Meteorology, Climatology, and Geophysics Agency (BMKG) has issued a warning about the potential for heavy rainfall and extreme weather events across the country, particularly during the December 2024 to April 2025 period. This alert comes as experts predict a strong La niña phenomenon, which could lead to a 20-40% increase in rainfall. Dwikorita Karnawati,head of BMKG,emphasized the importance of preparedness,urging the public and goverment bodies to take necessary precautions. “We need to increase awareness and preparedness,” she stated. “Almost all areas of the country have the potential to experience heavy rainfall with an intensity of over 200 mm.” The BMKG chief highlighted concerns about a repeat of the devastating floods that hit the Greater Jakarta area (Jabodetabek) in early 2020. Dwikorita warned that a combination of factors, including the La niña phenomenon and the arrival of a cold front from the Siberian highlands, could create conditions ripe for extreme rainfall and flash floods. “as last week, we’ve detected the potential for a burst of cold air to enter from the Siberian highlands and move towards Indonesian territory starting in December,”explained Dwikorita. this cold front is predicted to land around december 20th to 29th,bringing strong winds,high waves,and increased rainfall. The BMKG head outlined the worst-case scenario: “When it lands in western Indonesia — west Java, Lampung, Banten, and DKI — the worst-case scenario is increased rainfall with extreme intensity. An example of this happened in 2020, when we detected a burst of cold air and the worst condition was the Jabodetabek flood in January.” the agency’s warning serves as a critical reminder for Indonesians to remain vigilant and take necessary steps to mitigate the potential impacts of these weather events.## Archyde Interview: Indonesia Braces for Intense Rainfall and Hydrometeorological Disasters
**Host:** Welcome back to Archyde. Today, we’re discussing the intense rainy season affecting Indonesia. Joining us is Dwikorita Karnawati, Head of the Indonesian meteorological, Climatological and Geophysical Agency (BMKG). Thank you for being with us today.
**Dwikorita Karnawati:** Thank you for having me.
**Host:** Indonesia is experiencing a very different rainy season this year compared to the past. Could you tell our viewers what’s causing this drastic change?
**Dwikorita Karnawati:** Absolutely. This year, we’re experiencing a weak La Niña phenomenon.This creates colder than usual sea surface temperatures in the Pacific Ocean, which in turn enhances the growth of rain clouds and leads to a significant increase in rainfall volume and intensity.
**host:** You mentioned this being a stark contrast to last year. Can you elaborate on that?
**Dwikorita Karnawati:** Last year,Indonesia experienced El Niño,which brought about dry conditions across the country.This year, the shift to La Niña has resulted in a 20-40% increase in rainfall across most of Indonesia.
**Host:** That’s a substantial increase. How does Indonesia’s unique geographical location contribute to thes extreme weather patterns?
**Dwikorita Karnawati:** indonesia’s location between two continents and two oceans makes it highly susceptible to cyclones characterized by strong winds, high waves, and extreme weather events. This confluence of factors amplifies the impact of La Niña and creates a highly vulnerable situation for the country.
**Host:** Are there any other factors contributing to this intense rainy season?
**Dwikorita Karnawati:** Yes, atmospheric dynamics like the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) can also play a role in intensifying rainfall patterns.
**Host:** What steps are being taken to prepare for and mitigate the impacts of these extreme weather conditions?
**Dwikorita Karnawati:** the BMKG is closely monitoring these weather patterns and issuing timely warnings and advisories to the public. We are working with relevant agencies to prepare for potential flooding, landslides, and other hydrometeorological disasters.public awareness and preparedness are crucial during these challenging times.
**Host:** We appreciate your insights, Ms.Karnawati. This information is crucial for our viewers to understand the severity of the situation and take necessary precautions.
**Dwikorita Karnawati:** Thank you for having me. It’s significant that everyone stays informed and prepared.
## Archyde Interview: Indonesia Braces for Heavy Rains and Potential Disasters
**Interviewer**: Welcome back to Archyde, today we’re discussing the escalating concerns surrounding Indonesia’s rainy season. With us is Dr. Dwikorita karnawati, the head of Indonesia’s Meteorology, Climatology, and Geophysics Agency, the BMKG. Dr.Karnawati, thank you for joining us.
**Dr. Karnawati**: It’s my pleasure to be here.
**Interviewer**: So, Dr. Karnawati,Indonesia is facing a especially intense rainy season this year.Can you elaborate on the factors driving this increase in rainfall?
**Dr. Karnawati**: Absolutely.This year, we are transitioning from a moderate El Niño to a weak La Niña phenomenon.This shift in oceanic temperatures in the Pacific Ocean has led to a significant increase in the growth of rain clouds, resulting in a projected 20-40% increase in rainfall across much of Indonesia.
**Interviewer**: That’s a considerable increase.And are there any other factors compounding these effects?
**Dr. Karnawati**: Yes, Indonesia’s geographical location makes us particularly vulnerable. We’re situated between two continents and two oceans, making us susceptible to cyclones with strong winds and high waves.
Additionally, atmospheric dynamics like the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) and the potential for cold air surges originating from Siberia are predicted to be active during the Christmas and New Year period, further increasing the risk of extreme weather events.
**Interviewer**: These are indeed serious concerns. Knowing this, what steps are the BMKG taking to prepare for these potential hydrometeorological disasters?
**Dr. karnawati**: We at the BMKG have been issuing early warnings since November, targeting residents in disaster-prone areas. We are coordinating closely with relevant agencies and local authorities to ensure a unified response and mitigate possible risks effectively. Public awareness and preparedness are crucial.
**Interviewer**: Recently,rifying memories of the devastating floods in the Greater Jakarta area (Jabodetabek) in early 2020 have resurfaced. Could you elaborate on how this La Niña phenomenon might impact the chances of a repeat of such catastrophic flooding?
**dr. Karnawati**: We are particularly concerned about a repeat of the 2020 floods. The combined effect of La Niña and the potential cold surge entering Indonesia during December could create conditions ripe for extreme rainfall and flash floods, especially in western Indonesia.
**Interviewer**: This is undeniably alarming. What is the worst-case scenario the BMKG is predicting for this wet season?
**Dr. Karnawati**: Our worst-case scenario is characterized by intensified rainfall with extreme intensity, particularly in west Java, Lampung, Banten, and Jakarta. The 2020 Jabodetabek flood serves as a stark reminder of the potential devastation such an event could bring.
**Interviewer**: Thank you, dr. Karnawati, for shedding light on this critical situation.
**Dr.Karnawati**: It’s been my pleasure. I urge all Indonesians to remain vigilant, follow official warnings, and take necessary steps to protect themselves and their communities.
**Interviewer**: This has been a crucial conversation.Thank you for highlighting these vital issues. We encourage our viewers to stay informed and prepared
