Assessments of the Ukrainian military leadership are becoming increasingly gloomy. Due to the lack of ammunition, the defense forces of the country have a hard time resisting the attacks of the Russian units.
At the same time, Vladimir Putin, according to Ukrainian intelligence, is not abandoning his goal of capturing major cities, including Kyiv and Odessa. Taking Odesa would stop Russia from exporting grain and other goods, which Ukraine revived last fall following the end of a grain deal, and gain access to Transnistria, which on Wednesday sought Moscow’s political support in a confrontation with Moldovan authorities.
February 17 Russian troops completely occupied Avdijivka. Despite heavy losses in fierce fighting since October, it now controls almost the entire territory of the Donetsk region and is trying to capture villages adjacent to Avdijivka. In the last week, Ukrainian forces have reported withdrawing from three more areas.
Depending on the results of this operation, Russia will decide whether to continue to advance in the same way, slowly releasing troops and ammunition into Ukrainian positions, or to build up resources for a powerful strike to break through Ukraine’s defenses next summer, a person close to the Ukrainian leadership told Bloomberg.
According to NATO Military Committee Chairman Admiral Rob Bauer, Russia still does not have enough troops (they are losing many times more than Ukraine), as well as tanks and other equipment. Although Putin has created a military economy, he has not been able to stock up on armored vehicles in adequate quantities, as opposed to artillery shells and some types of missiles, R. Bauer said in a recent interview.
RUSI analysts: The planning horizon for the implementation of these goals, which is the main principle of the organization of Russian forces and industrial production, indicates that victory should be achieved by 2026.
Now Russia is supplying the front with mostly converted old tanks taken from reserves.
Russia’s seizure of Avdiyivka and several nearby villages should serve as a warning to Ukraine’s allies, a European official said on condition of anonymity.
“Ukraine may start to lose the war this year,” said Michael Coffman, a Russian-Ukraine specialist at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace and a well-known military analyst.
Meanwhile, experts Jack Watling and Nick Reynolds of the Royal United Services Defense Studies Institute (RUSI) indicated that the Russian leadership hopes to carry out operations to deplete the Ukrainian military this year and occupy a large area next year.
“The planning horizon for the implementation of these goals, which is the main principle for organizing Russian forces and industrial production, indicates that victory should be achieved by 2026,” according to their analysis of Russia’s strategic plans.
Reuters/Scanpix photo/Oleksandras Syrskis
Oleksandr Syrsky, the commander-in-chief of the Ukrainian armed forces, previously assessed that fierce and complex fighting once morest significantly larger Russian forces continues in the Avdiyivka sector.
The Russian attackers suffer heavy losses in manpower and equipment, but stubbornly continue to attack Ukrainian positions. Sometimes the Russians manage to achieve success in certain areas.
Meanwhile, Speaker of the House of Representatives Mike Johnson has once more refused to introduce the Ukraine aid bill to the United States Parliament because it does not contain provisions on US border security. He also previously refused to bring a similar bill that included border security provisions to a vote.
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2024-04-21 17:38:17
