2023-08-23 08:58:14
THE earthquake are considered one of the deadliest natural phenomena, as they are almost impossible to predict. The recent earthquake in Türkiyewhich killed more than 46,000 people in total, is an excellent example. If the disaster could have been predicted in advance, the number of victims could have been avoided or at least minimized. That’s why scientists have been working for decades on technologies that would predict earthquakes. A recent study showed that the satellites GPS can detect the warning signs powerful earthquakes two hours before the event. This is sufficient time to alert the population and take action.
How GPS Can Help Predict Earthquakes
As we said earlier, the earthquakes are caused by the movement of lithospheric plates. This process is not smooth, as the plates constantly collide with each other, causing earthquakes. Sometimes, after the collision, the plates begin to press against each other with incredible force for a long time, but nothing happens on the surface. At some point, the force of the plates pushing against each other exceeds the resistance of one of them and it begins to collapse. This is the reason for the earthquake in Türkiye.
Turkey earthquake kills over 46,000
For a long time, scientists have been trying to discover the patterns that precede earthquakes. However, until recently, these searches did not lead to any positive results. But today, researchers claim that micro-movements of lithospheric plates are able to fix GPS satellites. These movements precede more powerful movements that release large amounts of energy, causing tremors on the surface.
The researchers came to this conclusion after analyzing the GPS satellite data relating to more than 90 earthquakes greater than magnitude 7. All these data were obtained by the Nevada Geodetic Laboratory. By measuring the position of sensors on the ground, the satellites are able to record their slightest movements. All trip data is recorded for later research.
The scientists carefully studied the movements of the sensors on the ground during the 48 hours before earthquakes. They paid particular attention to the strength and direction of the tremors. They thus found that the earth moves two hours before the tremors. At the same time, there are no seismic waves, so it is impossible to detect such movements on the surface. Researchers talk about it in the journal Science.
To ensure the accuracy of their conclusions, the authors analyzed the movements of the sensors on 48 hours in 100,000 cases that did not precede earthquakes. In other words, they took a group of control data.
A similar pattern could only be observed in 0.03% of cases. This suggests that such movements very rarely occur in isolation. Most often, these movements precede earthquakes. The probability of an error is therefore extremely low. Even if mistakes happen, it is better to take action once in a while, but avoid heavy losses when an earthquake occurs.
To record the movement of tectonic plates on the planet, more sensitive systems are needed than those currently available.
Earthquakes won’t be predicted anytime soon
Although scientists have managed to provide convincing evidence of the effectiveness of the method they have developed for predicting earthquakes, it will not be possible to use it anytime soon. Indeed, some more advanced GPS systems need to be developed and installed all over the world.
For their study, the scientists used a large data set from more than 3,000 sensors located in different parts of the planet. However, these sensors only cover small areas of the Earth. In addition, to detect slow plate sliding, sensors are needed. 100 times more sensitive than those that exist. Therefore, in the near future it will not be possible to rely on earthquake warnings a few hours before the event.
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