Blake Snell is making quick moves in the free agency landscape. The highly coveted left-handed pitcher recently held discussions with both the Boston Red Sox and the Los Angeles Dodgers, as reported by sources familiar with the negotiations.
It remains likely that Snell has either met or will meet with other clubs, including the Baltimore Orioles and Toronto Blue Jays, both of whom are hunting for an elite starting pitcher to bolster their rotations. Snell is seeking a swifter resolution this offseason compared to last, when he didn’t finalize his contract with the San Francisco Giants until March 19, leaving him in limbo for much longer than anticipated.
Snell, who is set to celebrate his 32nd birthday on December 4, finds himself at an age disadvantage compared to two other premier starters available, Max Fried, who will turn 31 on January 18, and Corbin Burnes, who is 30. Nevertheless, Snell holds a competitive edge as he is the only one among the three without a qualifying offer attached to him. This factor means that whichever team signs Snell can do so without the penalty of forfeiting a draft pick or potentially losing international bonus pool funds.
Last offseason, the San Diego Padres issued Snell a qualifying offer, thus blocking him from receiving another this time around. He later signed a lucrative two-year deal worth $62 million with the Giants but made the smart decision to opt out following a successful season, exercising his right after posting impressive numbers.
The Red Sox have primarily been linked to Juan Soto this offseason, yet their greater need remains a front-of-the-rotation starter, particularly a left-hander to complement their right-handed heavy lineup. Snell’s prior experience in the AL East with the Tampa Bay Rays from 2016 to 2020 could ease his transition, and sources from two of his past teams have indicated that he would not shy away from the intense atmosphere that comes with pitching in Boston. Much like many other free agents, Snell is motivated by the prospect of playing for a competitive team and securing a substantial contract.
The Los Angeles Dodgers represent another appealing landing spot. As a native of the Seattle area, Snell may prefer to remain on the West Coast. The Dodgers’ president of baseball operations, Andrew Friedman, was instrumental in selecting Snell during the 2011 draft when he was with the Rays.
The Dodgers pursued Snell last season before he ultimately signed with the Giants, showcasing their sustained interest in him not only at that point but again during the trade deadline. With the current landscape shifting, he may hold increased appeal for them compared to a year ago, when his market value was likely inflated by the qualifying offer implications.
Both the Red Sox and Dodgers are simultaneously evaluating options in the market, also engaging with Burnes and Fried—a strategy common for teams during this competitive period. The Orioles are on the lookout for a top-tier starter to fill the void left by Burnes and appear inclined towards targeting Snell and potentially Fried, who is currently away on vacation but will entertain offers upon his return.
The Toronto Blue Jays, which are also eyeing Soto, are reportedly in active pursuit of all three pitchers, per sources informed about their talks. The New York clubs are still considered potential players in the trade landscape, emphasizing that multiple teams could be vying for Snell’s services.
Dodgers keeping options open
The Dodgers’ recent decision to shift Mookie Betts back to the infield has sparked widespread speculation about the possibility of pursuing free-agent shortstop Willy Adames while moving second baseman Gavin Lux in a trade.
That speculation, however, might not accurately reflect the team’s true intentions.
Friedman has long held a favorable view of Adames, who was initially acquired by the Rays during the 2014 trade deadline—a move that included David Price. Yet, Friedman is not known for overpaying for highly valued talent; he made an exception last offseason with Yoshinobu Yamamoto only because of the latter’s young age of 25. Historical deals involving stars like Shohei Ohtani, Mookie Betts, and Freddie Freeman also featured significant payment deferrals as part of their contracts.
Adames stands out as the premier free-agent shortstop available, though his fit with the Dodgers may not be as straightforward as some might presume. (Katie Stratman-USA TODAY Sports) Given Ha-Seong Kim’s recovery from shoulder surgery, Adames emerges as the clear favorite in this year’s shortstop market. His age of 29 makes him a prime candidate for a substantial contract, similar to previous high-demand shortstops like Corey Seager, Trea Turner, and Xander Bogaerts who all set market-defining deals. Although Adames may not be in the same tier as those players, he will likely expect to command a noteworthy salary. The recent decline in his defensive metrics raises questions about the long-term viability of him staying at shortstop under his potential new contract.
Lux, who is turning 27 this coming Friday, is a former first-round pick who has earned the Dodgers’ loyalty through his ongoing recovery from a significant knee injury sustained last season. He recorded an impressive .899 OPS post-All-Star break, placing him on par with Matt Olson and Brent Rooker while surpassing performances from teammate Teoscar Hernández and free-agent third baseman Alex Bregman, accounting for a 2.0 fWAR in that period. Lux remains a cost-effective option, projected to earn under $3 million in arbitration.
Should Lux remain the primary second baseman, it may prompt Betts to revert to shortstop, with Tommy Edman assuming center field responsibilities and Miguel Rojas taking on a utility role. Despite being rated as below average defensively at short last season, many of Betts’ issues arose primarily from throwing inconsistencies rather than an inability to make the throw itself. A dedicated offseason and a full spring training could remedy these shortcomings.
An alternative scenario for the Dodgers would involve trading Lux, thereby allowing Betts to occupy second base while slotting Edman at shortstop. This could free up the outfield for a combination of Andy Pages and James Outman. Ultimately, Friedman is under no immediate pressure to commit to Adames when his more pressing needs lie in outfield depth and bolstering the rotation. Staying flexible is Friedman’s modus operandi, and he has a myriad of options to explore.
A’s up against it
The Athletics’ strategy of improving the team through trades is facing significant hurdles.
Most free agents are unlikely to consider playing in a minor-league park situated in Sacramento, California, unless they are out of appealing options. Hence, it was unsurprising when general manager David Forst acknowledged a shift in focus toward trades during the GM meetings. One opposing executive, granted anonymity for their frankness, stated that the A’s have been one of the more genuine teams he’s interacted with regarding their desire to add talent. The challenge lies in the fact that nearly every franchise is eager to upgrade their major-league roster while the A’s are hesitant to deal away their limited high-quality players.
Forst specified that he would not entertain offers for designated hitter Brent Rooker. According to a well-informed source, center fielder JJ Bleday falls into the same category of untouchability. The Athletics might consider parting with Mason Miller—teams generally don’t restrict relief pitchers from trades—but they would expect to receive a good position player under long-term control in exchange. Earlier this year, I reported that if the Padres showed interest in Miller, the A’s would likely request Jackson Merrill as part of the deal.
The depth of the Athletics’ farm system is highlighted by a number of promising outfielders—Henry Bolte, Colby Thomas, and Denzel Clarke rank among their top ten prospects, as noted by MLB.com. However, even if Forst were inclined to deal some of these players, the challenge will remain in finding teams interested in making such trades, as most clubs are in the market seeking players ready to contribute at the major-league level—an area where the A’s are similarly focused.
Rays: To trade or not to trade?
Unlike the A’s, the Rays possess a stronger foundation of talent available. Even with a potentially declining revenue as they transition to a minor-league facility, the team’s recent selloff positions them more flexibly regarding their budget.
The four players traded by the Rays—Zach Eflin, Randy Arozarena, Isaac Paredes, and Jason Adam—are projected to make over $40 million combined in 2025, which FanGraphs estimates the Rays’ payroll might hit around $85 million. This amount could decrease if they decide to part ways with several players, including first baseman Yandy Díaz, second baseman Brandon Lowe, or pitcher Zack Littell. However, an increase in payroll is improbable. The financial incentive to trade players such as Lowe ($10.5 million), Díaz ($8 million), or Littell (with a projected arbitration cost of $4.8 million) isn’t as pronounced as it was last offseason when they faced high salaries like Tyler Glasnow’s impending $25 million. The Rays opted to retain both Lowe and Díaz during the trade deadline when the demand for offense surged. They may follow a similar strategy this offseason before reassessing their situation come deadline time based on team performance.
This cautious approach also applies to Littell, despite the fact that the Rays currently have six potential starters lined up—Shane McClanahan, Drew Rasmussen, Jeffrey Springs, along with Ryan Pepiot, Shane Baz, and Taj Bradley—if they all manage to maintain their health. For now, Littell, who has maintained a commendable 3.56 ERA over 227 2/3 innings as a starter during the past two years, offers valuable depth and potential insurance.
Moving to Steinbrenner Field, an outdoor venue in Tampa prone to weather disruptions, may present obstacles for the Rays’ pitching staff. However, it could also benefit their left-handed hitters such as Lowe, Jonathan Aranda, and Josh Lowe, as Tropicana Field has historically posed challenges for left-handed batters over the past three seasons, being the second most difficult park to hit in, following only T-Mobile Park in Seattle, as stated by Statcast.
As a free agent, Joc Pederson would be a fitting addition, though the chances of signing him seem slim. Instead, the Rays are expected to continue integrating young talent into their roster. Look out for outfielder Chandler Simpson, who has demonstrated exceptional speed on the base paths, totaling 198 stolen bases over the past two seasons while boasting a solid .807 OPS this past year across High A and Double A levels. Shortstop Carson Williams and first baseman Tre’ Morgan are among other promising prospects to keep an eye on.
And finally…
Despite reports suggesting that the Chicago Cubs are eager to trade first baseman/outfielder Cody Bellinger, rival executives acknowledge the complexities that surround any potential trade.
Bellinger, now 29, entered into a guaranteed deal valued at $32.5 million—composed of $27.5 million in salary and a $5 million possible buyout—after deciding to stay with the Cubs rather than testing the waters of free agency. Executives often describe one-year commitments as manageable risks, yet securing Bellinger may not simply involve a one-year commitment; opting out would mean foregoing the buyout to potentially opt in for another $27.5 million in 2026.
His performance during the 2023 season, which showcased an adjusted OPS 39 percent higher than league average, justifies the salary demand, if not more. While his effectiveness dipped slightly to 11 percent above league average in 2024, he remained an impactful player. By choosing not to enter the free-agent market, he separated himself from a group of leading alternatives, including outfielders such as Soto, Anthony Santander, and Hernández.
The Yankees have expressed interest in Bellinger in the past, notably due to his familial ties to the organization with his father Clay having played there from 1999 to 2001. If the Yankees lose out on acquiring Soto, Bellinger could serve as an alternative as they look to replenish their roster. However, the guaranteed sum of $32.5 million would likely diminish the potential return from a trade, forcing the Cubs to consider taking back a burdensome contract or accepting less attractive prospects in any deal.
What young prospects are the Rays focusing on for development as they prepare for the 2024 season?
Ams is another promising talent who might soon be contributing at the major league level. The Rays will likely focus on developing their existing young prospects and exploring cost-effective options in free agency, rather than making significant trades.
As the offseason progresses, many teams are assessing their needs and vying for the top players available, both through free agency and trades. For the Dodgers and Red Sox, the potential acquisition of someone like Blake Snell or another top-tier pitcher demonstrates their ambition to remain competitive in a crowded market. Meanwhile, the A’s face considerable challenges in enhancing their roster amid limited options and an underwhelming facility.
The backdrop of the Rays underscores the shifting dynamics within MLB, where teams are continuously weighing the benefits of maintaining financial flexibility against the pressing need to bolster their competitiveness. The decisions made by these organizations could have lasting impacts on their respective paths in upcoming seasons. Teams such as the Rays must navigate these waters carefully, balancing short-term gains against long-term strategies centered around development and sustainability.
this offseason promises to be one of significant activity and strategy, with many clubs looking to reshape their rosters and address key needs as they prepare for the eagerly anticipated 2024 season.
