2023-07-17 06:11:00
A ship carrying grain under the Black Sea Grain Agreement passes through the Bosphorus Strait in Turkey on the 15th (local time). Archyde.com Yonhap News
The Black Sea Grain Agreement, which guaranteed grain exports from Ukraine through the Black Sea, is on the verge of being suspended within a year. As Russian President Vladimir Putin takes a negative attitude toward extending the agreement, there are concerns that rising grain prices and a food crisis might repeat themselves.
According to reports from AFP and others on the 17th (local time), while the Black Sea Grain Agreement signed last year is scheduled to expire at midnight today, Russia, a party to the agreement, does not agree to extend the agreement.
Earlier, following the outbreak of war in Ukraine in February of last year, the Black Sea was blocked, blocking exports of more than 20 million tons of grain from Ukraine. On March 22, the Black Sea Grain Agreement was signed.
In the following year, 32.8 million tons of food, including wheat and corn, were exported to 45 countries on three continents through three Ukrainian ports bordering the Black Sea. The agreement has been extended three times despite Russia’s threat of exit, and has achieved results in easing food shortages and soaring grain prices, but the possibility of a fourth extension is not expected to be high.
Russia has repeatedly expressed dissatisfaction, saying that the actual amount of exports has not increased even though the West has agreed to exclude Russian grains and fertilizers from sanctions in exchange for complying with the grain agreement. Russia has also requested the resumption of the operation of the Russian ammonia pipeline that runs through Ukraine, but was frustrated by Ukraine’s opposition.
In this regard, UN Secretary-General António Guterres sent a letter to President Putin last week, proposing as an alternative plan to reconnect the Russian Agricultural Bank subsidiary to the SWIFT payment network.
However, in an interview with Russian state television on the 13th, President Putin criticized, “(The Black Sea Grain Agreement) is a one-sided game that does not consider Russia’s interests at all,” and said, “Nevertheless, we have extended this agreement several times.” In a phone call with South African President Cyril Ramaphosa on the 15th, President Putin also denied the achievements of the agreement itself, saying, “The main objective of the agreement, which is to supply food to places of great need, such as Africa, has not been implemented.”
Dimitri Simes, an expert on US-Russia relations, told the Wall Street Journal, “There is a perception among Russian elites (regarding the Black Sea Grain Agreement) that the government only makes concessions and gains little.”
If the Black Sea Grain Agreement is not extended, it is feared that last year’s food crisis will repeat itself. In June of last year, before the Black Sea Grain Agreement was signed, world wheat and corn prices rose by 56.5% and 15.7% year-on-year, respectively. US Secretary of State Tony Blincoln said at a press conference held in Jakarta, Indonesia on the 14th, “If Russia continues to threaten, developing countries will pay the price of rising food prices and food shortages.”
It’s not just the Black Sea Grain Agreement that Russia is threatening to scrap humanitarian agreements. At a Security Council meeting held at the United Nations headquarters in New York on the 11th, Russia also vetoed a nine-month extension of the United Nations relief operation for the people of northern Syria. As a result, the survival of 4 million people in the region who have been dependent on UN relief goods is threatened.
The WSJ pointed out that Russia is engaging in militant diplomacy in a situation where there is an endless war in Ukraine and an armed rebellion by the Wagner group. “Russia has changed its stance in the negotiations from being mean to obstructing it outright,” said Richard Gowon, UN director of the International Crisis Group (ICG). Natasha Hall, a senior fellow at the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), said, “Putin is letting the international community know that he can set the world on fire if he wants to.”
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